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Hi Armchair (I always feel like the odd one out using my own name, why did I do that 10 years ago when I first joined)
Anyway with regard to Brimham Boy. I watched that Warwick run again earlier this evening, and Marston didn’t once pick up his stick on him (when in vision at least). I’m not suggesting anything untoward, he clearly wasn’t going to fight out the finish that day. But he wasn’t hard on him, and actually he didn’t lose any more ground up the straight really. He clearly wasn’t 100%, but it wasn’t in my view a terrible effort, and hopefully he’ll be ready to go tomorrow, in what appears to be a weaker race, and there is no Glengarra in the field to hassle him early doors (hopefully Gentleman Anshan won’t try and lead, he did race prominently last time)
‘Hi Armchair (I always feel like the odd one out using my own name, why did I do that 10 years ago when I first joined)’
This made me giggle Robert Gibbs.
Keep up the race analysis. Brimham Boy not quite jumping today but a nice EW price all the same.
JoP
Ah, Fontwell, one of my favourite tracks, and the 3:15 tomorrow is just the type of race I love.
3:15 Fontwell – Friday 28th January
1 – Maximix – A quirky character who if on a going day would be more than capable of winning this. However he’s not been in great form this season thus far, and even on a going day he never looks an easy ride. His 2 efforts at his venue aren’t overly inspiring (one well beaten run and in the other he was well held when departing). Given the likely strong gallop he may well be under pressure to keep up early doors over a trip possibly a little on the sharp side, and whilst he may run them down, I think the more likely scenario is that he’ll lose interest with a circuit to run.
2 – Overlaw – He’ll no doubt give you a very good run for your money, he may even win, the fact that Littleton Aldor is in the field does temper enthusiasm somewhat. He has run ok in his two outings so far this season, and the track and trip will probably suit well. However whilst he’ll probably see off the attention of his rival for the lead, he may end up going a fraction quicker than he should do. Still 9lb higher than his last winning mark, a serious contender, but passed over at the likely price.
3 – Raspbary – She is rather hard to gauge, and isn’t easy to assess. She has shown ability but has ultimately always been well beaten, albeit nearly always in better quality events. She jumped well enough on her chasing debut, as was again doing so until departing midway last time. I respect connections, and she is a potential fly in the ointment, but you couldn’t back her with any confidence.
4 – Randjo – His stable is in form, and this one is still lightly raced and open to improvement. He is unlikely to get to the head of affairs here though, as he did when gaining a win on his chasing debut, and he has to show he handles soft ground. One of the leading contenders, but with a couple of doubts, he won’t be getting any of my money at around 4/1.
5 – The Hardy Boy – Well known as a Plumpton specialist, and the fact that he hasn’t been running too well there of late, doesn’t inspire me to back him here. Still 4lb higher than his last winning mark, he may well pop up again at Plumpton in the next couple of months, but is highly unlikely to do so in this.
6 – Keyneema – He has been seen more frequently over hurdles of late, and has only had 6 chase starts in his career, which include a win at Hereford in December 09. He hasn’t been running too badly this season without ever really threatening. His one start over fences around here resulted in a solid third placing. He likes to race prominently, and if Danny Cook, who he goes well for, can get him settled a few lengths off the lead, he could be a big threat off a mark now just 3lb higher than that he won off.
7 – Brushwood – He is without any doubt, capable of winning from this mark of 79, but he would probably have preferred the trip of 2m6f around here, and might just find things happening a little too quickly. If he can stay within a dozen lengths of the leaders, then he should be bang there at the business end, but at current odds of around 7/2, I don’t think there is any value to be had with him.
8 – Littleton Aldor – Two wins in 40 odd starts,including over C&D last March in what was a truly shocking affar. He looks to be increasingly difficult to handle. He’ll probably take on Overlaw and possibly Randjo for the lead, and may well lead the field for the first half of the race, but can he stay there until the finish, erm, I doubt that very much.
9 – Tinalliat – Has shown nothing in his starts under rules in this country, and was very modest in France. He has managed to win a maiden point, but on all known evidence, he won’t be winning under rules now or ever.
10 – Wishes or Watches – It’s funny to look at a race sometimes and compare handicap marks. I would probably have Tinalliat getting a stone off this one, and yet it’s almost the other way around. That said this horse doesn’t seem to like Fontwell very much, and has never run very well around here. He only has the one career success to his name, and although he finished second last time out, that was even more uncompetitive than this and he’ll do well to repeat the feat here. In fact I’m amazed he’s priced up at around 5/1, I think he should be double that, although if anyone wants to give me evens that he finishes 20 lengths in front of Tinalliat and thus proving my handicapping correct, I’ll take it!
Summary – If Overlaw can shake off the attentions of Littleton Aldor and Randjo early doors, he is capable of making all. Brushwood and Maximix could be in danger of being out of contention by halfway, and anyone looking to back either of those may well be better off doing so in running when I’m sure they’ll trade a fair bit bigger. However the selection at what I consider a generious price is KEYNEEMA, who ran well on his sole start here, is edging down the weights, and for whom the race may well set up perfectly for.
1pt each way Keyneema at 14/1
Hi Robert
The only thing I would have against Keyneema is that he doesn’t seem to get home beyond the bare 2m.
I think Brushwood has a favourite’s chance and on the basis I can’t get him beat I would look to back him if the price was right. It’s an awful race and if he somehow managed to drift to 5/1 I would make him a bet but otherwise would leave the race alone.
Tuffers
Well the race at Fontwell today panned out to script early on, and whilst I wasn’t surprised that Randjo won the race, I was surprised how easily he won in the end, as long as the handicapper doesn’t go mad, he should win again this season, given that he chased a fast pace and the others were spent forces a long way from home.
My selection Keyneema performed creditably in second, Tuffers I do agree he isn’t the stoutest stayer and a bare 2 miles is probably better, but he wasn’t going to beat the winner today at any distance. Brushford as I suspected just got too far behind, and the 2m6f event today may well have been his for the taking as it turned out.Ok I’m keeping it very short for tomorrow, as there is a doubt over whether Uttoxeter will be on, so this could be in vain anyway.
I’m looking forward to Cheltenham tomorrow (don’t rule out Knockara Beau in the Cleeve, Jan isn’t such a handicap over hurdles!) But I’m going with the 4:20 at Uttoxeter, I always think Uttoxeter when it’s heavy offers good punting potential, as so few horses really go through it there, and you often know your fate very early on.
4:20 Uttoxeter – Saturday 29th January
1 – Sun Tzu – Formerly trained in Ireland, made a good start over here over C&D on heavy ground, before disappointing at Ffos Las. May just need to come down a few pounds in the handicap, but given that we know he stays and acts in the ground, he has to be a strong contender in a weak affair.
2 – Fentara – Showed improved form stepped up to this trip when winning a mares novice hurdle at Newcastle. The second has come out and won this week to give the form a boost, and a mark of 105 looks about right to start with. Even though it was soft that day, this is going to be rather more testing, and with 11-12 to shoulder, she’ll need to step up again to follow up.
3 – Equity Release – Take away the fact he hasn’t run for 500 days, has to prove his ability to handle the ground, and stay this far, the most worrying thing for me is that he is currently for sale for a couple of thousand, which tends to suggest connections aren’t too hopeful of him winning anytime soon, too much to prove, easily opposed (only wish I could lay him at the sporting lifes forecast price of 4/1!!!)
4 – Duke of Ormond – He had some fair Irish point to point form and was very consistent in that sphere on soft/heavy ground. His first start here under rules on heavy ground over 3m was encouraging, although ultimately well beaten. His two subsequent efforts have been rather lacklustre and on those efforts he has no chance. However his proven ability to handle the going and stay this far are plus points, and even though his opening mark of 96 doesn’t look overly generous, he would be dangerous to rule out at a price.
5 – The Lemonpie – Former german racer who showed his first worthwhile form in this country last time at Warwick. A soft lead that day may have flattered him, and he was still beaten over 40 lengths in the end. The ground may not be an issue, but his ability to stay this trip is, and he makes little appeal, except as a place lay!
6 – Royal Chatelier – I remember making a mental note of this one after his debut in a bumper at Towcester. He has perhaps been a little disappointing overall, but has 2 reasonable efforts at Hereford and Exeter over hurdles to his name. He has slipped down to a mark of 88, and I get the impression he is capable of winning off that. Conditions here should suit him fine, and he looks to have reasonable claims.
7 – Azione – She had nearly 2 years off the track before reappearing this season, and only her Plumpton effort offered encouragment. Their is no doubt about her ability to handle testing conditions, but she has always appeared to be better over the minimum 2 mile trip and though she is being given every chance now by the handicapper, chances are she’ll be outstayed, a possible back to lay in running.
8 – Inkberrow Rose – This one had some fair bumper form, including behind Mizzruka in the Listed mares final at Sandown. It’s hard to take much encouragement from her 3 starts over hurdles so far this season, and whilst this is obviously her easiest task to date, she couldn’t be supported with any confidence at the moment, first time cheekpieces could help.
Summary – For me an intriging little heat, in which the testing conditions won’t be a problem for the majority, but the trip is a concern for a few. Fentara is the likely market leader, but isn’t exactly chucked in for her first start in a handicap, and if she is under 3/1, she rates a lay in my book. Sun Tzu would go close if reproducing his run her 2 starts ago and is feared. Although there are only 8 runners, I intend to back both DUKE OF ORMOND and ROYAL CHATELIER. The former ran well at this venue until fading late on over 3m and is dangerous now handicapping. Whilst the latter has fallen to a winnable mark and showed more on his last start at Exeter, both are guaranteed stayers.
1pt each way Duke of Ormond at 10/1 or better (no prices available at time of writing, may well get nearer double those odds)
2pt win Royal Chatelier at 5/1 or better
4:30pm – Well for the purposes of this thread, not so good, another 50 yards and Royal Chatelier may well have got up. For the purposes of my bank balance it was in the end a good result, with the exchances still paying the place on Royal Chatelier and with Fentara and Equity Release out of the frame, and the back to lay of Azione working nicely (3 traded odds on and Azione hit evens, mad finish), although 2 out I thought it was all going to end horribly! Just a shame Royal Chatelier didn’t get up, Duke of Ormond didn’t look too enthusiastic. very pleased to see Knockara run so well at Cheltenham, although obviously well beaten in the end.I thought I just plonk on here a recent picture of a horse I used to own a 1/4 share of called Fifth Generation, a few of you may remember him when he used to run in a few of the Champion Hurdle trials, he was a useful pacemaker in a lot of those races, but he picked up some decent prize money too, and excelled himself in the Kingwell at Wincanton on one particular occasion. He won a few races at his own level too, and was so enthusiastic about his racing. He’s 21 now been still going strong and enjoying life
Great to see the pic, Robert. We’ve always found good homes for ours and it’s nice to see them enjoying their retirement.
Best of luck with your selection tomorrow. It’s good to read some proper well-thought-out analysis.
Thanks Tuffers, I just hope we get have some jumping action tomorrow!
I clicked on your link, the horses your involved with are in rattling good form at the moment, although I think putting up Feet of Fury 11lb is taking the michael a little, any more than 8lb seems too much, taking everything into account. Still a mare in form………..I hope she goes well again for you if taking up her engagement at Southwell.
I waited until I knew the meeting was on before posting this one.
As tempting as it was to go for the 3:55 in which I think Lord Singer will get the measure of Enfant De Lune, I’ve gone for the more competitive 2:55.
2:55 Fakenham – Sunday 30th January
1 – Palypso De Creek – He has been contesting much tougher contests than this of late, including the Grand National three starts back. He has the one outstanding piece of form in the last 12 months, that being his second in the Peter Marsh, and the handicapper has given him a chance for his 2 failures so far this season. His run last time wasn’t the disaster it first appears, as the jockey wasn’t hard on him when his chance had gone. The stable are in great form at present and if they want to get into the national again this year, they’ll need to get a win out of him before the weights are published.
2 – Bench Warrent – This one was just beginning to backtrack when coming down in the Welsh National, but he had acquitted himself well up until that point. He was a fair novice last season and is a consistent performer when he gets round. He should have a race like this in him from his current mark and would be dangerous to dismiss if his confidence hasn’t been affected too much.
3 – Ray Mond – A horse you can only have admiration for, and his win here last time was a joy to behold. He is so very enthusiastic and is a credit to himself. That said, he did very much get his own way last time, and is now off a 9lb higher mark. That may not be enough to stop him if allowed a soft lead again, but you would think at least a few of these would be alive to that threat by now.
4 – Rustarix – He started off his season in great style by winning at Cheltenham, but was perhaps a little disappointing last time at Towcester. He won at Taunton in his younger days, but I just don’t see this as being a track that will suit him very well, as he often needs a fair bit of pushing and shoving to get him into contention, not for me today.
5 – Noun De La Thinte – A lovely mare, but she had a very hard race at Warwick over 3m5f in heavy ground just a fortnight ago, and there is a danger this will come just a little too soon. There shouldn’t be too much between her and Rustarix on their Cheltenham running, and the handicapper is beginning to relent with her now. She should be winning again before the season is out, and whilst you can’t rule her out completely, she made need to just drop a few more pounds.
6 – Three Chords – A nice looking type, typical for one from this yard. I just wonder whether a mark of 118 is stretching things a little, as whilst he did it well enough last time at Leicester, it was a pretty soft race compared to this, and I wouldn’t fancy those he beat in that race, in this today. I would also wonder if Fakenham would suit him, particularly if Ray Mond does set a fair gallop. I’m surprised to see him so short in the betting and at the prices I think he’s certainly opposable.
7 – Federstar – He’s not the biggest and he hasn’t reproduced his hurdles form over fences so far. Thats not to say there isn’t a race or two in him over the larger obstacles, but I would be surprised if he breaks his maiden tag here today.
Summary – Ray Mond is one of the most admirable horses in training at present and has proved to be a winning machine in recent times. He is obviously a danger to all concerned, but this is by far the toughtest test he’s faced. BENCH WARRENT looks overpriced in this to me, he showed up well for a long way last time, and is on a winning mark based on some of his smart novice form. The main selection is however PALYPSO DE CREEK who the stable have always thought a lot of. His current mark is far more realistic, and is just 2lb higher than when finishing second to Old Vic last season. A reproduction of that effort would make him very tough to beat.
2pt win Palypso De Creek at 8/1 (Stan James)
1pt win Bench Warrent at 11/1 (Betfred)I love the detailed write up and so just to pay some respect to the regular effort you put into your research and posts, I shall follow you in!
Thanks for the comments TDL.
Well what can you do when your main fancy refuses at the first, not a lot, move on quickly! Bit of surprise given you’d have thought if he were going to refuse anywhere it would have been at Aintree. Bench Warrent tried to rescue the situation but was never quite going to get to Three Chords, who despite not handling the track that well, won with a little in hand.
Slightly down at the end of the first week then. The majority have run well, and hopefully i’ll shake off the dose of seconditis next week.
Lord Singer, oh I should have stuck to the 3:55, still happy.
Tomorrows race will be the 3:25 at Ayr in which I have quite a strong fancy at a decent price, will do the write up a bit later.
Thanks Cormack, you do a great job with the site.
Ok onto Ayr which will hopefully pass the inspection in the morning.
3:25 AYR – Monday 31st January
1 – Quws Law – He was rated 129 two years ago, but completely lost his way last season and his comeback this time around the other day didn’t suggest a win was on the horizon. This trip is too short for him, but I can see why connections are going down this route. I’m sure they are just looking for him to finish a race, and get a little confidence back. He often used to make the running, and I wouldn’t completely rule out him reaching the frame (love the course, all 4 victories coming here) he is the class horse in the race, but you couldn’t back him at the moment.
2 – Blackpool Billy – Having been off for 2 years he has ran two highly encouraging races so far this season, firstly behind Alfie Flits at Kelso and latterly narrowly going down to Heavenly Chorus at Catterick. That latest run suggests this kind of mark (113) is around where he is at currently, and whilst he looks sure to be there or thereabouts, the forecast 13/8 or thereabouts doesn’t tempt me in the slightest. He may just prefer softer ground as all 3 wins have come on soft or heavy.
3 – The Cockney Squire – Stablemate of Quws Law, and this one appears to be getting better with racing. He went into many notebooks on his penultimate start at Musselburgh, when I think it’s fair to say he wasn’t given an overly hard ride. His latest effort at Uttoxeter was solid enough, but the form of that race looks very modest, and looking back it’s perhaps a little disappointing he didn’t get his head in front, given he had the run of the race. He looks sure to win a race of this nature at some point in the near future, but he is another who may just prefer softer ground. A strong contender, and it’ll be interesting to see if his stable companion allows him to stride on from the off.
4 – Quicuyo – Another course specialist, but all his wins here have been on heavy ground. He has been rather out of sorts for a while now, although he did show the odd glimmer last season, including over 2m5f. It may be that he needs a little further than the bare minumum these days, particularly on livelier ground. At his best when front running, and likely to be taken on by one or both of the Russell pair if attempting to adopt those tactics. Now with James Ewart following the said death of Peter Montieth, I wouldn’t be rushing to back him until he has softer conditions than he encounters here.
5 – Pamak D’Airy – I don’t know why but I seem to like a lot of the Hogarth horses, for one reason or another I often find myself cheering them on. I have to say though, this isn’t one of them. I just can’t seem to get a handle on this horse at all. More often than not he travels well in his races, often taking a bit of a grip, but not for a while now has he found much at the business end. He is prone to making the odd mistake, which hasn’t been helping his cause either. The likely strong gallop will suit him, and he is a danger to all, but he’s more likely to finish second than win.
6 – Arc Warrior – This one only has one piece of form of note under rules, that was when third to Turbo Island in a novice hurdle at Newcastle last season. He’s a good looking sort, as the few offspring that Even Top has produced tend to be. But that aside, he has a lot to prove, and he almost certainly wil need help from the handicapper before he gets competitive.
7 – Carters Rest – This horse is a bit of an enigma at present, having producing a couple of very promising efforts, and not much else. Very poor in his first 2 bumpers, he sprung into life when winning here at the scottish national meeting, and he had Sunarri, Gilbarry and Sir Frank all good winners since, behind him that day, that race was unusual in that it was run at a good clip. His other piece of form was when just touched off behind Bishops Heir at Kelso. It appears he runs well when he’s had a recent start, and I was encouraged with how he jumped on his chasing debut at Catterick last time. The ground will suit him, he has won at this track, and the fast pace should help. I just think he is potentially better than a 102 horse.
8 – Tartan Snow – The ground looks too lively, the trip too sharp, and the handicap mark too high, would be a shock winner in my book.
9 – Little Wizzard – Connections seem a little unsure as to what his ideal trip is at present, and I’ve a feeling this might just be a bit on the sharp side. It’s not ideal that he fell early on, on his chasing debut, and whilst he is potentially on a lenient mark at present, you’d want to see him complete safely before becoming interested, and probably competing over 2m4f or thereabouts.
Summary – Blackpool Billy will be a warm order, and is probably a worthy favourite, however I’d have him around the 5/2 mark at least, and therefore he makes no appeal at around 13/8. If the money comes for The Cockney Squire that could be ominous for the rest, but he should have done better last time from the same mark. I’m taking a chance as you may have guessed from the above on CARTERS REST, who I really believe has more ability than a 102 horse, and although this is only his second chase start, he shouldn’t have too many excuses and at 14/1 I think he is the value in the race.
1pt each way Carters Rest at 14/1
I was a little disappointed with Carters Rest yesterday. He travelled well enough, and jumped ok, but didn’t pick up at all in the straight. It did pay to race handy at Ayr, but at the same time, the second was behind him half a mile out. He’s obviously not consistent, but I’ll probably give him another chance in a slightly lower grade.
I was going to go with the 4:20 at Taunton, which to me looks fairly easy to read, Guns of Love will front run, Mujamead whilst not jumping fluently will track him. If on a going day the later might get by, if not Guns of Love will make all. At the likely prices I suggest Mujamead might be worth a small investment.
The last 2 races at Folkestone have been ruled out as with a O’Neill horse in each with McCoy on, I’m not really sure what to make of either.Anyway I’ve gone with the 3:40 Folkestone
3:40 Folkestone – Tuesday 1st February
1 – Mr Chippy – Former modest Irish point winner, who has obviously been campaigned over an indequate 2 miles over hurdles and has got into this handicap off a mark of 90. He’s a little difficult to quantify, but despite winning one, his irish point form was modest and even a mark of 90 might be a little to high. On his first start since June, a watching brief is probably the best policy.
2 – Absolute Shambles – Consistency isn’t this ones strong point, and he has to put a very modest effort last time behind him. He is now racing from his last winning mark, he likes to race up with the pace, and is a potential player with the yard in reasonable form.
3 – Oponce – Lightly raced, like so many from this yard down the years, but he ran his best race this season last time behind an in-form rival at Fakenham. This step up to 3 miles is an unknown quantity,and the likely reasonable gallop will test his stamina to the full. He could well turn out to be well handicapped but quotes around the 3/1 mark don’t excite.
4 – Quartz Du Montceau – On his victory at Plumpton last season (sole success to date) he would be a big danger to all here, but he has been very disappointing since, he is however now back on that same handicap mark. For some reason those front running tactics which brough success haven’t really been repeated since, and granted the lead he might rekindle his enthusiasm. Maybe it was the first time cheek pieces that sparked him into life. If he is ridden more prominently a better showing may well be on the cards.
5 – Ukrainian Star – The obvious favourite, he has been in good form this season, successfully mixing hurdling and chasing. He has been placed to good effect in winning very moderate affairs, and still looks fairly well treated. He does appear to be at his best front running, and as I’ve already indicated there are one or two that might be looking to do the same thing. Perhaps the main worry is that although he won by 12 lengths last time, the ground was very testing and they were finishing very tired, a few from that meeting have come out and run a bit flat since. A bit like Blackpool Billy yesterday really for me, worthy favourite, yes, right price no (7/4 shot at time of writing)
6 – Just Josie – This mare has been soundly beaten in 3 novice hurdles and makes her chasing debut here. It seems a bit of a strange move given that she is just a five year old, and I assume she has schooled so well, connections think she is better off over fences. Whilst she has shown a little ability so far, she hasn’t looked like a winner waiting to happen, even in these low grade affair.
7 – Ilewin Tom – He has one victory to his name, and that came at Fontwell, in fact he won very easily that day. He is racing from out of the handicap here and so although his official rating is the same as for his victory, he is effectively racing off a 5lb higher mark. That win came after a break, so there are small grounds for optimism, but the fact is he has shown next to nothing either before or since that victory. The stable have had a few horses producing shock wins (Queenstown Lad/Chestnut Ben) at big prices from low marks, it’s potentially interesting that Jamie Moore rides him in preference to Commanche Dawn who has has partnered of late, and in such a weak race, it’s not inconceivable he could pop up at a price.
8 – Commanche Dawn – This mare has yet to win a race, and with a mark of 57, connections will do well to change that. She did run probably her best ever race over course and distance a few starts ago, but never threatened, and the field did rather finish in a heap that day. Not a complete no hoper on that showing, but at the same time anything better than a plugging on third or fourth would be a big surprise and I can’t believe at the time of writing she is halve the odds of Quartz De Montceau and Absolute Shambles, seems wrong to me.
Summary – A low grade staying chase, with a couple of interesting angles. If Ukrainian Star is allowed to set his own gallop in front, then current quotes of 7/4 might start to look tempting, but it is doubtful he will be allowed to dominate. Some people wouldn’t contemplate backing 3 horses in an 8 runner line up, but I don’t mind if I think thats where the value lies and in this case I do. Both QUARTZ DU MONTCEAU and ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES are at their best when racing up with the pace, and given the weakness of the opposition it’s not inconceiveable, that one of them may get into a rhythm and be hard to pass. At current quotes of 12 & 20/1 respectively, I honestly think they are both rather overpriced. ILEWIN TOM is obviously an enigma, but has proven his ability to go well after a break, and Jamie Moore is an interesting booking. Given his profile there is probably no point in back him each way.
2pt win Quartz Du Montceau at 12/1 (Various)
1pt each way Absolute Shambles at 20/1 (Victor Chandler)
1pt win Ilewim Tom at 25/1 (Various)If Absolute Shambles were to place that would cover the bets, and I think backing all 3 in the above way is the best option.
Hi, new to the forum, like the others, loving the detailed write ups, excellent work and i for one am very thankful. All the best with your selections. Thanks
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