- This topic has 212 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I had a good day at Hereford yesterday, of course a 33/1 winner always helps!
Four hours of form study, an hour to type this up, should leave me two hours in the sun before the racing starts!
What a great card at Aintree, to my eye it is just as interesting/competitive as any day at Cheltenham was this year. I’ll whizz through a few of the races, but ultimately only one bet for me there.Total P/L +182.15
AINTREE
Topolski has impressed me hugely on both starts so far over hurdles, and if he doesn’t win or go very close i’ll be disappointed. I’d be inclined to take on Wayward Prince in the second, I like the horse, but have my doubts as to whether a fast run race around here (courtesy of Golan Way one would assume) is really going to suit him. The Melling is very intriging, Albertas, Kalahari, Somersby………..I’ve no idea who will come out on top, but I would be very surprised if it were Master Minded, and I’m almost tempted to place lay him. Some years I enjoy the Topham more than the National, and i’ve certainly had more success in this race. This time around I won’t be betting on it, it’s just too competitive and I can’t see any value. Mon Parrain being quoted at 33’s and shorter for the Gold Cup is laughable, but I can see him taking to this, not interested at 5/1 though. Dev is an old favourite of mine who has done me a favour around here before, but again 8/1 or thereabouts is really not worth taking. Frankie Figg is another obvious contender, Fine Parchment shapes as if this will be right up his street, Buffalo Bob and Gansey jump well and I can see them taking to it, but all in all I’m happy to sit and watch it as a spectacle. It just keeps on coming, the Sefton Novices’ is another cracking race, and I can see a shock in this, I’m just not sure who is most likely to provide it. I don’t think Our Island got the best ride at Cheltenham, and if he’s ridden closer to the pace, he could go well, as could Muldoon’s Picnic who will love the faster conditions and still has a lot of improvement left in him. I’d love to see Sparky May win, my old friend Basford Bob could outrun his odds, a fascinating race just damn hard! I certainly wouldn’t want to be backing Mossley and Court In Motion at their respective odds.
4:50
I rarely find myself backing a Jonjo O’Neill horse, although I’m more inclined to do so at these big festivals. AL CO is a horse I saw at Cheltenham on his first run in this country two years ago as a four year old, and he looked very weak and immature, unlike most french breds and therefore I think he could still be better than he has shown so far. Again, rather unusually he seems to prefer quicker ground, and although a 9lb rise for his win at Doncaster might seem a little harsh, because I think he is still open to improvement and has everything in his favour, that isn’t enough to put me off. He’s not got a lot of substance about him, and I think a break of 44 days since his win, will have put him spot on for this. I’m actually glad McCoy has picked Ringaroses over him, as at the risk of sounding controversial, i’m not convinced he is best suited to his forceful style. He seems to prefer going left handed, and came to himself in the spring last year. He can take a tug early on, so will be suited to what is sure to be a good gallop, and whilst it’s a fairly open race, odds of 28/1 just look too big.
4:50 – AL CO – 1pt each way at 28/1 (VC, Bog, or SJ, would accept 25’s)
FONTWELL
3:20
As per Jolly Boy’s Outing and Shoudhavenownbettr yesterday, some of my better results do come from horses that i’ve tracked for a while. QUELCLASSE falls into that category, but to be clear, i’m not as confident about his chances, it’s just the fact he’s 40/1, in a race, that if you take out the hot favourite, isn’t very good at all. The negatives are there for all to see, he’s been in terrible form his season over fences, and hasn’t looked all that enthusiastic for a while now. But focusing on the positives, he has switched yards, his two best runs have both been in the month of April on good ground in the last two years, and as his jumping hasn’t been great over fences, this return to hurdling looks a smart move. I think this trip is his best one, he has a capable 7lb claimer on board, he’s done well after a short break before and if he has been freshened up a bit and approves of a return to the smaller obstacles he is more than capable of going well in this.
Obviously E Street Boy looks the one, but his busy schedule will catch up with him at some point.3:20 – Quelclasse – 0.75pt each way at 40/1 (Various)
NEWCASTLE
I wasn’t sure i’d have time to get through this card this morning, but with four maidens to open the card, I soon found myself on race five! The two selections come in the last two races.
5:50
At first glance I didn’t think i’d be getting involved in this, but given that I priced BURNT OAK up at 9/1 and he’s available at 16’s, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. This horse looked like he could be really quite useful after he won a junior bumper at Cheltenham, five years ago now. Clearly he’s been plagued with injuries in recent seasons, but he has shown over hurdles this winter that he still retains a fair amount of ability. He’s won four races to date, two bumpers, a flat maiden and a hurdle, and given all his problems I suspect he might just be happier these days on the level. Agglestone Rock should ensure there is no hanging around, and that should suit Burnt Oak as he is probably the strongest stayer in the line up. Given that he is still running well off marks in the region of 115 over hurdles, he could be fairly well treated here off 60 and in my mind he is clearly the one who is overpriced in this. French Hollow is a lovely horse, but I’m not sure he really is that much of a battler, La Estrella will be doing very well to win off this mark back on turf. The likely front runner Agglestone Rock could be dangerous.
6:25
This isn’t nearly as competitive as the numbers would indicate and TOMINTOUL STAR is just about my bet of the day. Ruth Carr’s yard may be about to burst into life at any moment, and actually to this horses credit he has been performing well on the all-weather when most of hers weren’t. He’s not had many starts on turf, but he showed promise in maidens for Henry Cecil, and again for this yard on a couple of starts on the green stuff last season. At Beverley last April he was badly impeded when staying on, and at Pontefract he was given a fair bit to do, and made up some ground late on, under fairly tender handling. He has been competing solidly over the winter off marks in the mid 50’s, but gets in off 48 here, and in comparison to the opposition he looks particularly well treated. He ran well on his first start for Ms Carr after a break, and an absence of 50 days may be more of a positive than anything else. In the context of this race he’s pretty reliable, and the more I look at it, the more I think he should be thereabouts at the line.
5:50 – Burnt Oak – 1pt each way at 16/1 (Hills, PP, both Bog, would accept 14’s)
6:25 – Tomintoul Star – 1.5pt each way at 12/1 (B365, Bog, Skybet, would accept 10’s)If there is one race in the calendar in which someone should pick a horse (or two) out for themselves it is surely the National. I am therefore not going to go into any detail on the race whatsoever, Killyglen is my selection for whats it’s worth.
I’ve been reading that people are betting on five, six, or even seven in the race……..it’s madness. I don’t want to keep beating the same drum, but I really can’t get my head around why it is more important to some people, to come up with the National winner, almost at any cost, than the 2:45 at Thirsk. The fact is that your more likely to get a refusal, or get brought down etc etc, so don’t try telling me it’s not a lottery!On day’s like this with six meetings, which of course is going to be pretty much the norm over the next 4/5 months I have to be a bit more ruthless in quickly deciding which races I’m not going to spend any time on. A real mixture in terms of variety and quality is on offer, although the tariff system does mean we have a two runner race for a class 3 handicap at Lingfield! Three jumps meetings to look forward to on Sunday, and overall I would be more confident on making a profit this weekend than normal, famous last words……….
Total P/L +173.65
AINTREE
1:45
What an interesting race the novice hurdle is to open the card. The 40’s on STORM BRIG is just too tempting, as I think he would have been around half the price if he hadn’t run last time. No real excuse was given for that poor effort at Kelso, "was never travelling" being the quote given by the jockey. Bold Sir Brian won that race, but Storm Brig was a strong favourite, and he seems to have been dismissed rather quickly. As much as I’m a big fan of Lucinda Russells charge, on this occasion i’d rather take 40’s on Storm Brig, of the two. Clearly he hasn’t shown the same level of form as the likes of Cue Card, Rock On Ruby and Spirit Son. But unlike those he doesn’t come here on the back of a hard race at Cheltenham, and if the ground is now on the faster side of good, he has shown he can handle that. He looked very progressive until that latest effort, which obviously wasn’t his true form, and simply looks overpriced.
2:15
Am I about to tip an odds-on shot? don’t be silly. Finian’s Rainbow fared better at Cheltenham than I thought he would, but I’d rather be a layer than a backer at odds-on. Ghizao was disappointing in the Arkle, but is clearly capable of better than that. Starluck will need to drastically brush up his jumping, and I’m not sure just how wise running him around here is. Although obviously this track will play to his strengths if he does put in a good round. Dan Breen will probably attempt to make all, but i’ve talked myself into backing GILBARRY who finished behind Dan Breen when last seen out. Dan Breen did get the run of the race that day at Bangor in beating him by 16 lengths, but Gilbarry was giving him 7lb and off the back of a break, better can be expected. Malcolm Jeffersons horse is rated 134, fully 23lb lower than Finian’s Rainbow, and I just hope they aren’t turning up with the intention of popping round to pick up fourth/fifth place prize money. He should relish the fast ground and seems to go well fresh, he will need to brush up his jumping a little, but I’ve got enough doubts over the front four for one reason or another, and so at 66/1 he does look a little overpriced.
I’ll be cheering on Peddlars Cross in the Aintree Hurdle, but won’t be getting involved financially. In the 3:25 i will be backing Invisible Man with a view to laying him off at half his original price in running. He looks sure to give a good display from the front, and will jump most of these silly. However I do think the likelihood is that something will pick him up late on, and therefore i’ll be looking to get my stake back on him.
My quick summary of the national in a couple of sentences. It’s ridiculous that Tidal Bay is lining up, I don’t think What A Friend quite has the heart for it, the same comment applies to Calgary Bay. Don’t Push It is now a ridiculous price, Silver By Nature will go off several points shorter than he should on account that he’s a grey. Backstage looks a likely type, as does Oscar Time, the one horse i’d love to see win would be Chief Dan George for the Moffatts, and that isn’t an impossible scenario. When I saw Killyglen being campaigned over hurdles earlier this season, it occurred to me then he could go well in this race. He’s not hit the heights that once seemed likely, but he goes well at this time of year, will like the faster ground, shouldn’t have a problem with the trip, and if he gets into a rhythm early on he has a chance of sorts.
1:45 – Storm Brig – 0.75pt each way at 40/1 (B365, Betfred, both bog)
2:15 – Gilbarry – 0.5pt each way at 50/1 (various, bog)CHEPSTOW
Tae Kwon Do is an interesting runner on his first start for Tim Vaughan in the 2:35, and in a first time tongue tie. I thought this horse would win for Julie Camacho but it didn’t quite happen. When he was entered in the sales, I found out that he has had a soft palate operation, which isn’t surprising and he has often stopped quickly in his races. I wanted about 16’s to take a chance on him and at the current 10’s i’m not at all tempted.
3:45
JAYJAY VALENTINE has been running on bad ground in the winter, over hurdles, and offered more here over fences last time. That was on good to soft ground over three miles, and he went well until tiring up the straight. As I said the other day, not all point to point winners truly stay three miles, and this horse looks to have enough speed that this drop back to 2m3f around this galloping track should suit him. He has dropped a further 2lb in the weights, and he just strikes me as being better than an 89 rated horse. With a few front runners in the line-up, this shouldn’t turn into a sprint in the straight, and he looks by far the best handicapped horse in the race.
5:20
CASPAR OF TARSUS is a horse i’ve watched closely over the last two seasons and he has now gone and got himself very well handicapped. He has always needed his first start of the season, and didn’t actually run quite so terribly at the P next to his name indicates. He then wasn’t seen for three months before running at Fontwell in February, and he only lost touch about half a mile out and wasn’t given a hard time after a mistake three out, and was pulled up. For this two runs he has dropped a hefty 11lb in the weights, and is now 6lb lower than when winning at Hereford last season. He finished 6th of 17 off a stone higher mark in this very race last season, and he will appreciate this better ground. It’s an extremely moderate race, and at 20/1 he is overpriced.
3:45 – Jayjay Valentine – 3pt win at 4/1 (various, bog)
5:20 – Caspar Of Tarsus – 1.5pt each way at 20/1 (B365, bog, would accept 16’s)BANGOR
4:45
KING GABRIEL has clearly had his problems in recent times, but I don’t think he stays three miles, and now dropped in trip, down in the weights, at 50’s he looks worth a little interest. I thought he showed a glimmer of promise last time at Chepstow as he only lost touch turning into the straight over three miles, in what was a fairly competitive little heat. He won two races for Andy Turnell in the 08/09 season, one at Kempton over two miles, the other over 2m2f at Fontwell. In all probability he still needs to come down more in the handicap to have a realistic chance, as I doubt he will ever rediscover that sort of form. However he is 6lb lower than when he won, shouldn’t have any excuses on that fitness front, having had two starts in the last month, and this is the most realistic assignment he’s been set so far by current connections.
4:45 – King Gabriel – 0.75pt each way at 50/1 (various, bog)
THIRSK
1:35
MANDALAY KING has finished in the frame twice from three starts here, including on his reappearance last season, that isn’t the only time he’s gone well on his seasonal debut and although I wasn’t planning on getting involved in this race, I can’t believe he is 20/1 and is therefore worthy of a wager. He’s finished in the first three 15 times from 36 starts, not a bad strike rate at all, given that he often runs in large fields. Whilst he only a 1lb lower than when last won two years ago, he starts the season off a 4lb lower mark than last time, and doesn’t look badly handicapped on the evidence of some of his form from last year. Whether he is drawn on the right side remains to be seen, but there is plenty of pace around him, so he should get a good toe into the race. A strongly run 6f is ideal for him, as is the ground/track and I think were he trained by Kevin Ryan/Brian Ellison etc, he would be nearer half his current odds.
2:45
INDIESLAD is one my 10 to follow list, and was available at 20’s last night, he is now a top price 16/1 shot, but that still represents good value in my eyes. I won’t write too much now, as I gave as much information about him as I could in my previous write up. Suffice to say he appeals as one that is likely to progress as a three year old, looks fairly handicapped, and Ann Duffield can get one ready to win on it’s first start of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if 6f is ultimately his ideal trip this season, but i’ve no qualms with him starting off over 5f, and although it’s a competitive race, he should go well.
4:55
I wasn’t that disappointed with LINDORO the other day at Catterick, although I don’t think he quite got the best of rides. He is the ideal type for 7f around here, as he has already shown, and from his draw in 8, he should be able to settle just in behind the lead. He was always just a little too far off the pace last time to every really land a blow, but I expect Andrew Heffernan to sit closer this time around (Danielle Mccreery was aboard last time). He has come down another 2lb, which is handy, as I thought he could win off his old mark. I don’t fancy too many of his rivals here, although Hakuna Matata is a bit of an unknown quantity. At 10’s (if you can get it) or 9’s otherwise I think he is a cracking bet, and my only one in the three 7f races here, the 2:10 is impossible, it should suit a hold up horse, but nearly everything wants to lead! that race could be in running carnage I think.
1:35 – Mandalay King – 1pt each way at 20/1 (various, bog)
2:45 – Indieslad – 1pt each way at 16/1 (Stan James, 14’s just acceptable)
4:55 – Lindoro – 2pt each way at 10/1 (Totesport, 9’s elsewhere)I was 6 years old, in infant school, and I had to do a project on something I was interested in. I wanted to do mine on horse racing, but as the small school library didn’t have any books on racing, I was told I couldn’t do it. I remember going in the next day with a pound coin (I hope I got it from my piggy bank and not my mothers purse, can’t remember) and asking my teacher if she could order a book for me, so I could do my project. She of course didn’t take my money, but she did persuade the powers that be to get me a horse racing book, and my project got the go ahead!
I mention this because having followed racing from such a young age, I’ve found myself having to defend it to so many people over the years, and therefore I don’t really look forward to national day anymore. I’ve heard the Daily Mail are going to town on the two fatalities, theres a surprise. I’m not going to read what they or anyone else has to say on the matter, because I’ll only get wound up by it. I’ve made the point a few times that horses entered for the national should have to go round the track a week or two before, so they know what to expect, as there have been several fatalities at the first fence over the years. I’m not sure that would have made much difference this time to Dooneys Gate who had previously run well in the Topham or Ornais who jumped the first few well and was considered to be a good jumper.
10 horses fell (25% of the field), 3 unseated and 2 were brought down, clearly in a field of 40 it would be highly unlikely that would happen in a race over park fences, and I do think there is a case to be made for horses to be schooled around the track itself before they are allowed to compete. Racing needs to do everything it can to minimise the risk, and despite modifications to the fences over the years, I’m not sure it’s doing that. Maybe I’m just getting a bit soft, but watching Ballabriggs trying his heart out, but being hit 17 (I think) times after the last wasn’t something I particularly enjoyed either. I’m not having a go at Jason Maguire, who got a 5 day ban for excessive use, as I can imagine how easy it must be to get carried in the heat of the moment.
I think the people at Animal Aid were disappointed that only Lush Life lost his life at Cheltenham during the 4 days, and they are already going to town over this. Alas the majority of people don’t follow the sport on a day to day basis, and therefore aren’t armed with all the necessary knowledge/information to come to the conclusion that racing is in no way a cruel sport, and many will be easily persuaded by the shock/scare tactics groups like them employ.The national aside, the worst story of the day was the news that Peter Toole is in a very bad way in hospital following Classic Fly’s first fence fall in the novice chase. It goes without saying I wish Peter well, and let’s hope he comes through with no lasting damage. Arthur Whiting, Classic Fly’s trainer has come in for some criticism from certain quarters, and frankly that is completely and utterly unjustified. I’ve met Arthur a few times, he used to have his horses trained by Dr Philip Pritchard, but now trains them under permit with his son. They love their horses, and would never do anything to put them in a vunerable position. Classic Fly had completed in his five previous chases, and had never once looked like falling. In fact he has jumped much better than Starluck in his two chases before this race. He fell at the first, a notoriously tricky fence, and the class of the race had absolutely nothing to do with the fall. It was just one of those things that could have happened on a Monday at Plumpton. A few years ago Arthur Whiting ran Hazeljack, who had an official rating in the 80’s, in the Cathcart at the Cheltenham Festival. He was a 100/1 shot, and yet he finished 4th, beating an 11/2 Pipe runner and the favourite, 150 rated La Landiere. On that occasion he was applauded for having a go, and picking up some decent prize money. Classic Fly had no realistic chance, and i’m sure they were just looking to school round and pick up a small prize, but as I said the horse is/has been a safe jumper, and with a rating of 107, he may not be a world beater, but he has ability. I’ve seen many instances of horses running in races they clearly shouldn’t be, and this certainly isn’t one of them. Obviously at the moment the most important thing is that Peter Toole pulls through, and lets hope he makes a good recovery.
I may not have picked the winner of the national (lottery), although Killyglen was still going well when coming down, but Saturday was fairly successful with Lindoro winning at Thirsk, Mandalay King (20/1) finishing second, again at Thirsk (I told you it’s my favourite flat racecourse, so many horses aren’t suited to it) and Caspar Of Tarsus (20/1) finished the day off with a good second at Chepstow. It meant a profit on the day of 16.15, thats taking Lindoro at 9’s with the 30p rule 4, so it was slightly more than I thought.
Three national hunt meetings, but a lot of fairly small fields, so not as much for me to get stuck into as I first thought.
Total P/L +189.80
ASCOT
4:55
At 16/1 in this field, ARKOSE does stand out to me as being a good bet. On the bare facts he has been very disappointing in recent times, but they don’t tell the full story and he is certainly a long way from being a lost cause. Starting with the positives, this horse ran well both times he ran here last season, firstly when second to the useful Possol in a 2m6f novice, and the secondly when again second, this time to the even more useful Finian’s Rainbow over 2m4f, again in novice company. He started off this season over fences, and he didn’t take to it at all, so those efforts should be written off completely. His only start over hurdles in this campaign was last time at Sandown in a very competitive handicap, and he seemed to sulk a little out the back that day, in a race in which few ever got competitive. The handicapper has dropped him 5lb for that to a mark of 120, and in the light of his novice form from last season, that looks a fairly attractive mark. We know he likes a decent surface, he may well improve for the step up to 3 miles, but possibly the most crucial factor is that he should be able to race handily from the outset. Most of his rivals have something to prove at present, and 16/1 at the time of writing really does look very generous indeed.
4:55 – Arkose – 1.5pt each way at 16/1 (B365, bog, would accept 14’s currently with VC, and even 12’s)
LUDLOW
5:15
A hunter chase in which not many can be seriously considered. Double Mead will almost certainly go off a clear favourite, but I’ll take her on with another mare in THEATRE DIVA. The selection hasn’t quite been in the same form in points this year, as last, but she should enjoy dropping back to this trip around a venue she thrives at. She contest the Cheltenham Foxhunters last time, but got rid of her jockey fairly early on there, and should hopefully be none the worse for that. She likes to come from behind off a good gallop, which she should get here, and she has won here both over hurdles and fences. I just think at the likely prices she is worth siding with over Double Mead, who won well here last time, but didn’t have a rival of Theatre Diva’s calibre in opposition. Almaydan was behind Double Mead on that occasion, and is unlikely to reverse the form. In fact he may well end up adding yet another third placed finish to his form figures!
5:15 – Theatre Diva – 2pt win at 3/1 or better
WINCANTON
4:30
This is a bit of a speculative one, but PRINCE OF KING had shown ability in bumpers prior to his hurdling debut last time, and at a big price he might be worthy of a little support. He made his debut in what was a very weak bumper at Taunton last October, but he showed a glimmer of ability that day, and at appeared to handle the fast ground well. He ran a similar race next time on good to soft ground back at Taunton, in January. It was a slightly better race, and although beaten a little further, it probably represented an improved effort, in finishing sixth of fourteen. He looked ill at ease from the start on heavy ground last time out, on his hurdling debut at Hereford, and he actually plugged on better than that looked likely at halfway, when he may well have been pulled up. I just got the impression he was capable of a bit better in his bumpers, and i think the heavy ground really was to blame for a disappointing display last time. Back on a decent surface I think he can go well at a price, in what is, lets face it a pretty poor maiden hurdle by Wincanton standards. This is borne out by the fact that Penchesco looks like being the market leader. He has a rating of 110 and is already starting to look a little exposed over hurdles. He was a bit disappointing last time at Fontwell, and he is certainly beatable. Final Flyer is rated 107 and again he looks fairly exposed already as being modest, whilst former Aidan O’Brien inmate Encompassing is an interesting recruit for Sarah Leech,
4:30 – Prince Of King – 0.5pt each way at 33/1 or better
Hi Robert
i follow your blog religously, i think without doubt it is the most informative and interesting write up anywhere.
it helps people like me understand the basics etc and i for one, hope you continue this for a very long time. there are some of us tha appreciate the time and effort this takes and for you, at least you know that there are thanks at the end of the line.
well, had my most prophitable national for years yesterday so think i will have small ones today as a rewardkeep up the good work mate
Thanks Deegs
Well thankfully my words didn’t come back to haunt me, and it has been a fairly good weekend. Arkose ran a solid race, which wasn’t helped by a few sloppy jumps on the way round, including at the last. The 16’s disappeared at about 4.00am, an hour after I posted! I don’t want my P/L to ever give a false representation so I’m actually going to use 12’s which was much easier to get hold of, with a 10p rule 4 for the non runner. Theatre Diva’s task was made much easier at Ludlow with the defection of Double Mead, and although she had to battle hard, I think she had a bit up her sleeve. In fact given that I would have taken 3’s with the fav in there, 7/4 without was fairly generous. She was available at 9/2, but 4/1 was easily got, so i’m using 4’s with a 55p rule 4. Prince Of King didn’t run at Wincanton, which is a shame, because the favourite wasn’t good enough, and I think he could have gone well, another day……All adds up to a little profit of 5.34pts on the day.
Monday’s have been good to me in the recent weeks, but despite an increase in meetings due to the start of the evening fixtures, I’ve only come up with a few selections. I’m not sure there will be too many on Tuesday either, with two all-weather meetings (why?) and Folkestone only producing one double figure sized field in 21 races, a few of the jumps races are a little more competitive, so that may be were i’m heading.
Total P/L +195.14
HEXHAM
2:00
An 18 runner 0-90 handicap chase…………although as I know what makes most of these tick, it didn’t actually take too long to go through. I could be here all morning discussing the chances of some of these, but very quickly, Lonesome Boatman likes Towcester, and should also like Hexham, is still feasibly weighted and probably just about deserves to be favourite. Bubbly Breeze is interesting now over fences, although not obviously well treated and two down the bottom, Seek The Truth and Sycho Fred are thoroughly exposed, but both are capable of popping up off their present mark. The one that appeals to me is NICK THE SILVER who won twice over hurdles several years ago, the first time for Evan Williams over 3m2f!.That was in January 2005, and he had only just turned four years old (quite literally as he was born on January 1st!) so he clearly is a real stayer as I can’t think of too many that have won over such a trip in their juvenile season. He was off the racecourse proper for five years, although he did have some pointing starts, with very limited success. His three starts back under rules this season have offered enough to suggest he can still be a force in this company, granted a truer test of stamina. Miss Young rode him over hurdles at Catterick in February, over an inadequate 2m3f. The pair did well enough in tenth, not beaten far, and she looked tidy enough on him. A mid-race mistake at Sedgefield knocked the stuffing out of him next time out, and the last we saw of him was when third here in a novice chase a fortnight ago. The bare result probably flatters him a little, although given that he made a few mistakes, he did rather well to only be beaten twenty lengths. I say it flattered him because it was a slowly run race, but when you consider he almost certainly wants a truly run race, then perhaps it didn’t, maybe he would have finished closer still granted a proper gallop. His jumping is the main worry, and it’s hard to know whether his riders’ quiet style will mean they pop round cleanly or otherwise! Were this over hurdles I would happily take 14/1, so at 28/1 I think the risk is worth taking, although it’s not a race to become heavily involved in!
3:00
I’m afraid this isn’t an original selection but at around 7/1 in this novice hurdle MR SUPREME looks a very good each way proposition. The favourite Scriptwriter finally got off the mark over hurdles at Sedgefield last time, but the race did fall into his lap that day with the odds-on favourite Shadows Lengthen departing early on and he is certainly beatable under a penalty. Given that Masterful Act won over 1m6f on the flat, you’d think 2m4f here would be fine, but i’m not convinced he’ll really see it out at this stage, and it wasn’t the strongest Huntingdon event he finished second in last time. The selection has been a bit in and out in four starts to date, but he looks the type to improve over time, and a reproduction of his close up fourth at Ayr in January would see him take a hand in the finish here. He was staying out stoutly at the end of his race that day, and finished just behind a trio of fair yardsticks in Sunarri, Kings Grey and the winner Lively Baron, all horses who are rated around the 120 mark. He started life with Sue Smith, and his half brother Bamby (trained by that yard) has actually won a race around here. He didn’t run too badly in what was a fairly hot novice at Wetherby last time, but he just found the pace a bit hot around that tighter circuit. This stiffer test should suit him well, and he’ll probably want three miles next season. Although one of the other unexposed runners in the race will probably outrun their odds, it is fairly hard to see him out the frame, and certainly at the prices he looks the best option against the front two.
2:00 – Nick The Silver – 0.75pt each way at 28/1 (Vc, bog, otherwise 25’s is acceptable)
3:00 – Mr Supreme – 1.5pt each way at 7/1 (various, bog)FFOS LAS
7:20
This one doesn’t need too much explaining as to my mind he kind of picks himself in this race. MAGNETIC POLE has been dropped 8lb for his Leicester run two months ago (which wasn’t disastrous, after a couple of mistakes). He was running off his last winning mark then (last won in August) and so is of course now 8lb lower. He has twice won after a break of more than two months. He has two career victories at Bangor to his name, a track not overly dissimilar to this venue and the capable Charlie Huxley takes off another 3lb. In recent times he appears to prefer a faster surface, despite having won on heavy ground earlier in his career. The fact that Mr Bond is favourite tells you all you need to know about the strength of this race, and none of the others make much appeal either!
7:20 – Magnetic Pole – 2pt win at 5/1 (SJ or Sportingbet, general 9/2 bog also acceptable)
Mr Supreme did the business yesterday, although the departure of Scriptwrier helped his cause, he did it well and may well have won anyway.
Total P/L + 204.04
FOLKESTONE
2:30
Despite a few very poor runs last season, Novabridge held his form well towards the end of the campaign, and it won’t bode too well for the rest of his season if he doesn’t win this. However given that he did throw in a couple of real shockers, that would make me wary and having recently said that I thought VEUVEVEUVEVOOM could still be capable of winning a little race over a straight 5f, I should give her the chance to prove me right in this, despite the fact that on the figures she has no chance. I only hope that Simon Pearce allows her, her head, and lets her get on with it. If Novabridge and Magical Star are in front of her at halfway, that will probably be that, but if he can get her up there throughout she must have a squeak. It’s the amount of ground she has been losing coming round the bend at Lingfield that leads me to believe she is a little better than those runs suggest. First time cheekpieces could have an effect, and if she finishes last in this, i’ll have to accept she is never going to win a race. Magical Star would get outpaced in most 5f races, but given the level of opposition she might not do here! Dangerous Illusion has shown more than the selection overall, but she ran poorly returned to turf last time.
2:30 – Veuveveuvevoom – 1pt win at 14/1 (Stan James, otherwise 12’s acceptable)
SOUTHWELL
2:40
Not usually the sort of race I get involved with, a maiden on the all-weather, but X-RATED is a horse i’ve been waiting to see over 7f, I thought perhaps that would be in a handicap, but this isn’t much of a race, and he could be hard to peg back from the front. He’s the most exposed of these (bar the outsider) but experience of this surface counts for a fair bit, and he should go from the front. He doesn’t look short of speed to my eye and the only surprise is that it’s taken this long for him to run over this distance. There is only a 1lb between him and Lightning Cloud on official ratings, but whilst the latter is obviously open to more improvement, he has to prove he acts round here, and besides I think the selection himself could improve a little over this trip. Precocious Kid as well fancied on debut at Kempton recently. and ran well enough in second, but that was a desperately weak affair and he would have to improve a fair bit on that.
2:40 – X-Rated – 2pt win at 7/2 (various, bog)
TAUNTON
4:45
I was never going to be able to resist a selling handicap hurdle, and I could probably tell you more about most of these without referring to anything, than I could about any race at Newmarket/Cheltenham tomorrow. My friend from last week Shoudhavenownbettr reappears quickly, but he had a fairly hard race (jockey banned for misuse of the whip) and this trip will be plenty sharp enough around here for him I would have thought. Stravita is a perennial loser and I’m always happy to take her on at a short price. Dolores Ortiz has her first start in selling company, but she doesn’t look straightforward under pressure, and is probably rated high enough for what she has actually achieved so far. Bari Bay is interesting, but there has been some money around for him already this morning and I’m not getting involved at around 6’s. The two I’m interested in are MOTOR HOME and A P LING, both horses i’ve backed in the past. The former had become very disappointing until finishing second at Plumpton last October on good to firm ground. He probably needed it last time at Warwick, back after a break and i’ll forgive him that (the stable doesn’t get too many winners with horses returning from any sort of layoff). The interesting thing about this horse is that he has won at Thirsk on the flat, and has also run well at both Goodwood and Brighton (on firm ground too). He clearly likes sharp, twisty layouts, acts on the ground and in a poor race he is worthy of support. A P Ling I almost backed at the right time when she was fourth at Fakenham in February, in fact she traded odds-on in running that day and i’m still not sure how sure didn’t finish in the frame. Last time at Hereford she battled on much better than I expected her too, as she dropped off the pack before halfway and actually ran on well in the closing stages. She runs off the same mark here, and is another that is guaranteed to handle the fast conditions. Dolores Ortiz may stop her from getting an easy lead, but even so in a race as bad as this, she is no 22/1 shot.
4:45 – Motor Home – 1pt each way at 9/1 (B365, VC, Betfred, all bog) A P Ling – 0.75pt each way at 22/1 B365, VC, would accept 20’s)
TOWCESTER6:00
I need to speed through these last two a bit now. GLOBAL FLYER has been dropped 8lb since his last start two months ago, and back at Towcester on good to firm ground he must be overpriced at present in this line-up. He has run here three times, and bar his Huntingdon win, they have been his best career efforts. This smaller field should be ideal for him as i’ve often thought he sulks about a bit when he’s got to many horses around him. Connections have finally opted to fit him with some headgear (cheekpieces) and as he can often race a bit lazily, hopefully these will have the desired effect. His jumping so far over fences has been solid but not spectacular, and that is the main concern as Sonny Mullen probably won’t hang about from the front. Were this over hurdles i’d happily take 4/1, so the 11/2 is worth taking in the hope that a bit more schooling at home has improved his jumping since we last saw him.
6:30
SUMNER has had his fair share of trainers in recent times, and I hope the switch to the small Davies yard has benefitted him. Several years ago now I thought he might make up into a fair little handicapper for Mark Tompkins, but he left him at the end of his three year old campaign. His two victories for the Newmarket handler were on good to firm and firm going (latter at Pontefract) and I think the surface is important to him. He’s clearly had troubles over the years, but he was well backed at this time last year on his first start for Frank Sheridan on the all-weather at Kempton, and was beaten less than four lengths after eighteen months off the track. He ran a couple of fair races for David Evans over hurdles, most notably when third over 2m4f at Worcester in October. He runs off the same mark here, and I believe that this stiff 2 miles is absolutely what he wants. Kyle James takes off 3lb and his current price looks more than fair, especially now I don’t have to worry about the Easterby horse lurking! Mossmann Gorge would be an obvious danger but it’s not a hot race by any means.
6:00 – Global Flyer – 2pt win at 11/2 (Boylesports, VC, bog)
6:30 – Sumner – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (Boylesports, Betfred, PP, bog would accept 12’s)Total P/L +195.39
CHELTENHAM
3:20
Secret Dancer ran in the county hurdle at the festival and was only beaten around eleven lengths despite finishing eighteenth, he has been dropped 2lb. KAUTO RELKO, despite finishing fifth in the Martin Pipe race was beaten over sixteen lengths, and hasn’t been dropped at all. If anything it should have been the other way round, which of the two yards is a horse suddenly most likely to find improvement from? and which having watched the races back was clearly trying much harder on the day……………
As usual the bookies are running scared of Mr Jones, but this doesn’t strike me as being a race he’ll try and land a gamble in. My guess is Secret Dancer won’t win today, will drop another 2lb that will see him eligible for a 0-125, then look out Newton Abbot in the near future!
To KAUTO RELKO who as I don’t think is particularly well handicapped, having not been touched for his effort at the festival, and having been put up 4lb for finishing second the time before. However he is quite simply overpriced at 16/1. He would have finished several lengths closer last time but if being badly hampered by the fall of King Of The Night, at which point he was just beginning to make ground.
He started his campaign with a fine third at Aintree and was then a shade disappointing at Haydock, although that race may well have come too soon for him. He has seemingly improved for stepping up from the minimum trip in his last two runs and this is only his third start this year, so he’s not had a hard time of things lately. With Black Jack Blues in the line-up they should go a fair gallop which will suit, and Peter Carberry taking off the full 7lb is a bonus. He’s never going to reach the heights of his half brother, but this could be his time to shine.4:30
This one wasn’t on my list last night, but having looked at the prices for this race this morning LIFE OF A LUSO is much bigger than I would have expected and so i’m happy to add him at 25/1. Sometimes it really is hard to explain why I fancy something to run well, but i’ll have a go. I don’t think this horse really likes jumping fences, not that he can’t or doesn’t jump them well in the main, but he just looks a happier horse when hurdling. He was narrowly beaten by Whispering Jack at Wincanton two runs ago, and was quite harshly treated by the handicapper in being raised 8lb (the pair were clear). He is now 2lb better off with that rival who is around a quarter of his price in this race. The selection twice ran well at Downpatrick last year, which is another course with a stiff finish. He clearly relishes a good surface, I think this stiffer test of stamina will suit him and with Richard Johnson booked i’m willing to take a chance on him in a competitive handicap.
5:40
FORTY THIRTY has run well after a break before, the stable are going well, the ground is perfect for him and he has dropped 3lb since we last saw him but……………..the main concern is whether this track is really ideal for him, but at 14/1 in what isn’t a great race for the track, he has to be of interest. He ran well last summer off a higher mark than this when not beaten far at Newton Abbot by Humbel Ben over 2m3f. Until that point i’d always thought of this horse as being an out and out two-miler and whilst I still think the minimum trip suits him best, the fact that he clearly does stay a little further should mean my concerns about this stiff test, at this trip are unfounded.
He had been on the go for quite some prior to his final start at Newbury in a more competitive race than this one, on softer ground, and that run is very easy to forgive. I’m hoping that maybe Falcon Island will take them along early on, as I don’t think he would be suited to a crawl. Granted a fair gallop, he should still be swinging off the bridle coming down the hill, and hopefully he’ll come up the hill well enough too.3:20 – Kauto Relko – 1.5pt each way at 16/1 (Boylesports bog or Skybet, would accept 14’s)
4:30 – Life Of A Luso – 1.5pt each way at 25/1 (Boylesports, VC or Hills, all bog, 20’s acceptable)
5:40 – Forty Thirty – 2pt each way at 14/1 (Various, bog would accept 10’s and above)CATTERICK
3:10
Well this is what i’d consider to be my most speculative one today, and thats COMMANDER VEEJAY. I noted him down when he finished well in a seller here over this trip on only his second start, and he appealed as one for nurseries down the line. After that he went to Haydock over a mile in soft ground for a maiden, and showed a touch of promise again, but either didn’t handle the ground or didn’t get home, probably a combination of both at that stage. He returned to this C&D on his final start and ran terribly. He didn’t really look like a two year old last season, by that I mean he didn’t by any means the finished article, and I would hope he has done well from two to three. That of course is the risk you take with this kind of horse, at this stage of the flat season, but as long as I think the odds on offer reward the risk, that I don’t mind. It could just be that he is very poor and won’t ever look like a three/four year old either etc etc. But i’m backing my judgement on this one, he could of course need the outing, and i should stop now as i’m not really talking him up too much. Suffice to say then that I saw something in his run in July that leads me to believe he can win a modest race like this, and it is modest. He’s running off a mark of 46, gets weight from the majority of these who don’t look well treated and at 28/1 is worthy of just a little support.
3:10 – Commander Veejay – 0.75pt each way at 28/1 (Stan James, or 25/1 VC, bog)
SOUTHWELL
I shouldn’t use words like definitely, i’ve got 15 minutes before 11am to type up the final two.
6:15
TREASON TRIAL hasn’t won for years, has never won over hurdles and has a fair amount of weight to carry, that is what most people would have to say about him, it’s all true but I could swing that around and say, he hasn’t had much racing in recent times, this is just about the most realistic assignment he’s had over hurdles, and he is big enough to carry the weight.
He’s only had half a dozen starts over hurdles, all since August last year. He had the best part of three years off the track and shaped well enough in summer novice hurdles over the summer to suggest a modest staying handicap should be within his grasp. Joss Saville packed him training over here, and since going to Andy Crook he seems to have lost his way a little. He has a little break over the winter, which was a good move as he’d had a fair few races since his comeback and wants faster ground. I get the impression that he was just warming up for this when always towards the rear at Pontefract on the flat last time. He was given an official rating of 105 after his first three starts, but that has been dropped now to 92. This is the first time he has raced over 3 miles, but I think it’s exactly what he wants (won over 1m6f on the flat at 3!).7:45
I was going to suggest Chadwell Spring in this and took some 12’s an hour ago, well she isn’t 12’s anymore, and I can’t suggest her now the price has gone. The other one I was going to recommend a small bet on was the rag of the field KILBREADY STAR. This really is last chance saloon time for him, but he has dropped another 6lb for his terrible run last time, and is now fully 19lb than when he shaped with promise in a novice hurdle at Huntingdon won by Mossley. I’m struggling to get that effort out of my head as I think he could have finished closer still that day. At 40/1 you pay your money as the saying goes, if he shows nothing today then i won’t be supporting him again, but at the price he is worth giving one final chance too in a very poor finale.
6:15 – Treason Trial – 1.5pt each way at 22/1 (Vc, bog, Coral, 20’s acceptable)
7:45 – Kilbready Star – 0.75pt each way at 40/1 (Coral, 33’s elsewhere acceptable, just!)I forgot to copy my post onto here yesterday!
Total P/L +175.39
AYR
5:05
The Racing Post diomed comment for SUNNYSIDE reads "Not disgraced in soft ground last time, opposable on this ground" if ever i’ve seen a comment that should convince people not to be influenced by them, thats it. Sunnyside seems to have handled soft/heavy ground well enough in recent starts, but surely it’s not too hard to see that his best form to date is on a better surface, and thats one of the reasons why I think he’s worth backing in this. Quite a few of these aren’t really proven over this trip, and several look pretty badly handicapped, and i’m not sure this is really all that competitive despite the numbers. The selection won an irish point on good ground, was placed in one on firm ground, and his one career victory under rules so far was on good to soft in a novice hurdle at Hexham in October. He led all that way that day and beat a fairly solid yardstick in Moon Indigo. He saw the trip out well that day, and if you get three miles at Hexham, you’ll get it anywhere. He then did ok in a novice won by Yurok at Carlise over 2m4f before finishing a distant third behind Yes Tom here over C&D. On eider chase day Newcastle he did appear to flounder in the bottomless ground (as did virtually everything that day), but his return to that track a few weeks ago saw an improved effort when beaten thirteen lengths on his first handicap start off a mark of 115 He’s been dropped 3lb for that and looks one of the better handicapped in this line-up now. He should be up the front from the tape, and I would expect Alexander Voy (claiming a useful 5lb) to make sure it is a proper test.
5:05 – Sunnyside – 1.5pt each way at 10/1 (Stan James, 9’s various, bog)
CHEPSTOW
5:10
Whilst Sunnyside is still running NOT SO SURE DICK should also be under way, such is the wonderful race planning we have! He won an irish point and after a couple of bumpers outings he was sent straight over fences, but his jumping hasn’t been all that fluent and is now seen hurdling for the first time. The thing to note so far is that in his point outings he was always ridden up with the pace and that seemed to suit. When he was a close up third in a Sedgefield bumper he took up the running just after halfway and attempted to outstay his rivals. Over fences he was ridden differently, held up, and for one that does seem to be a thorough galloper/stayer that didn’t seem to work to his advantage. I’m sure in time three miles will be his trip, but this big galloping track should offset any concern about his effectiveness over 2m4f. A couple of these like to force the issue, and so I don’t expect him to make it, but to have a chance you would think he would need to be ridden fairly positively. Being from the Baker yard, any market move would be a positive sign, but they do win when unbacked, and off a modest mark of 96, on his first start over hurdles against some more exposed rivals, he looks worth siding with. The market has been made due to the fact that Spirit Of Barbados is so short. It appears the Pipe stable may have lined him up in a similar fashion to recent multiple winner E Street Boy, but in the hope that goes astray i’ll happily stick to the selection at 14’s.
7:25
I think this is only my second hunter chase selection, so hopefully DOC WELLS will follow in the footsteps of Theatre Diva. Not a race I was really planning on getting involved in, but then I was expecting to get 12/1 about this one. I thought this horse was going to be pretty decent when trained by Chris Grant for Trevor Hemmings, but he didn’t progress as I expected, despite having some fair form, both in bumpers and over hurdles. He came down on his sole chasing start in January of last year at Sedgefield, when still holding every chance. He didn’t run again after that as was sold for 7,500 guineas at Doncaster in May. He has won his only point start to date, a fourteen runner maiden at Howick last month on good to soft ground, albeit the time was nothing special. Even though this is a novice hunter chase, most of his rivals are what they are, but he I think has the potential to be a bit better than this grade. He ran well enough when he encountered a faster surface under rules and genuine good ground shouldn’t be a worry. With Mr Biddick in the plate they’re no concerns on the jockey and 12/1 looks big!
5:10 – Not So Sure Dick – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various, bog)
7:25 – Doc Wells – 2pts each way at 12/1 (Betfred,bog, would accept 10’s)I forgot to copy my post onto here yesterday!
Don’t worry, Rob, it encouraged me (and hopefully others) to add your blog to my favourites!
Only if they start a pricewise column for class 4 and below races!
It was nice to get back on the winning trail with Not Sure Sure Dick yesterday.
Apologies for the slightly late update. I was planning on putting up Dancing Maite at Leicester, but he’s been backed this morning and the price is no longer there. In the Scottish National I wouldn’t be surprised to see No Panic who was third last year, plug on for a place, but I can’t really see past the front few in the market, and nothing appeals as great value. They’re a couple of races that are right up my street tomorrow at Wetherby, so I’ll have those up in the morning sometime.Total P/L +188.39
RIPON
2:00
Firm ground, is that allowed? Ann Duffield has only had a handful of runners so far this turf season, and i’m sure it’s only a matter of time before the winners start to flow, perhaps SPYING can be the first one for the season. He won his first two racecourse starts as a two year old, both over 7f on good to firm ground and he look very promising at that stage. I think it’s fair to say that last season didn’t go according to plan, but he still showed that the ability is there if it can be harnessed. He can ran well on his first start of the season at Newcastle, but after that it was very mixed, with a couple of poor efforts on the all-weather, a run over 1m2f at Chester where he didn’t get home and a more encouraging effort back at Newcastle. His progress does seem to have halted because he just hasn’t been settling in his races, and for a horse like him, most all-weather races aren’t going to be suitable. The result of all that is he now looks nicely handicapped and with plenty of pace on here and a big field, he should hopefully be able to settle better in amongst horses. We know he handles quick ground, has gone well fresh in both seasons to date, so granted a little luck in running he should be able to make his prescence felt over this mile trip, which i think should prove to be ideal.
3:35
I was willing to back HIGHLIFE DANCER at 11/4 with main rival Cloudy Bay in the line-up, as I had doubts about that one on the ground. Now he has been taken out this really looks like it should be a straighforward task for Mick Channon’s three year old and although this isn’t the sort of price that usually appeals to me, the fact that he is still odds against means I can’t help but back him. He did well last year over 7f, and shaped well enough in two starts on the all-weather this year to suggest he had a low grade handicap or two in him. He didn’t get home over 1m4f at Beverley recently and this trip here today should be just about perfect. Given the opposition that he faces I think he’d win over virtually any trip against them, and only Bernisdale looks like causing any sort of a problem. That one is woefully one paced though and on all known evidence this really should be Highlife Dancer’s race to lose.
2:00 – Spying – 1pt each way at 20/1 (various, bog)
3:35 – Highlife Dancer – 4pt win at 6/5 (B365, 11/10 various acceptable bog)DONCASTER
4:35
I was hoping I would get 7’s on DENS GIFT but the current 6’s is just about acceptable, although it will be a slightly lower stake. He’s not had many starts on turf, but those he has had suggest he is just as effective on the grass. He’s been in fair form on the all-weather in recent starts but has dropped a few pounds to a mark of 80, his lowest for several years and he should put up a bold show at a time of year he seems to go particularly well at. He undoubtedly still has the pace for 7f and invariably in this sort of race (lady amateur riders) the place to be is towards the front, as quite often you find half the field just never get into it. Rachel Green is one of the more capable jockey’s in the line-up and he’s a straightforward ride.
4:35 – Dens Gift – 2pt win at 6/1 (various, bog)
A sunny Sunday, and two national hunt cards today, although the Stratford card has cut up and nothing really stands out there and it could pay to be a buyer of the Favourite Index.
I’m going to the Brightwell Sales at Ascot tomorrow, and will either put up Monday’s selections tonight or early in the morning.Total P/L +188.79
WETHERBY
2:25
The place to start with this race is the Market Rasen event which was won by Solway Blue, with Hi Ho Silvia in second and Muntami in third. You could have thrown a couple of large duvets over the first nine in that contest, and the complexion of the race changed close home. That form looks far from reliable, and all three of those look plenty short enough in the market. Baraathen probably has more ability than most of these, but doesn’t always look the most willing although he does have Gina Andrews sister Bridget in the plate, and having seen her ride (and win) at Marks Tey recently, I can confirm she is good. Four interested me to varying degrees, Dollar Express is a horse I thought would win a race like this, but the combination of the break, the ground and the jockey all mean today is unlikely to be his day. Waldo Winchester didn’t run too badly at Catterick on his return from a ten month break last month, but he completely downed tools over fences at Uttoxeter recently. He has tumbled down the weights and has gone well here before, but is probably suited to softer ground. I’ve come down on the side of PERTOCELLI and MICKWELL BAY, two completely different types, but both I feel are overpriced. Petrocelli won over 5f on the flat last season, but does stay a mile on the level, and his stamina has been called into question over hurdles. The fact that he finished in front of Baraathen off level weights in a novice hurdle at Kelso in October seems to have been overlooked (in receipt of 10lb here) and I thought he stayed well enough that day in a better race, having been keen early on. He has since run two fair races at both Sedgefield and Catterick and it can pay to side with horses that travel in these sort of races, where with all due respect, a lot of the jockeys aren’t able to get after their mounts for too long. If he settles for his inexperienced pilot he can go well down a further 2lb in the weights on this quick ground which suits.
Mickwell Bay is a different type completely, he hasn’t won over 5f, but he has won a point to point! He’s clearly had all sorts of injury problems, but he was quite well backed in November last year on his first start for this yard, back from another absence. That was over 3m over fences, and he travelled well enough for a large part of that race to suggest he wasn’t a completely lost cause. Now of course they went a fairly modest gallop compared to what they are likely to go here, and whether he quite has the pace for this is a doubt. He does appear to go on faster ground, and if he can keep up for the first half of the race, he should be running on up the straight for Heather Bethell who has impressed with her exploits on Fujin Dancer this season. Back over hurdles off a mark of 70 having made jumping errors last time at Leicester, and having had another few months off, he might just be well handicapped, a statement that you couldn’t apply to many of these who are thoroughly exposed in this type of event.4:40
KNOCK THREE TIMES needs the fast ground she gets here to be seen at her best, and it’s probably best to ignore her last two efforts on good to soft at Catterick, for which she has dropped 8lb, making her a total of 13lb lower than when running here over C&D back in October. As she often does, she hit a flat spot that day, which was compounded by a poor jump, and despite running up the straight she was never competitive. This trip really ought to suit her better than 2m as she stays 2m on the flat well. She should be sharper for those two recent runs at Catterick and is now handicapped to win. My main concern really is the fact that she has so much weight to carry as she’s not the biggest in the world, but that aside she should go well in this company, and unlike most of her rivals, she has at least won a race. Miss Alexander won on Thunder Hawk at Hexham the other day, and whilst she is obviously not of the same calibre as the rest of the jockeys in the race, this mare probably isn’t one who would take too a strong ride, and I wouldn’t be concerned on that score.
Some Catch is obviously of interest off bottom weight having showed a bit of ability here two starts ago, but she ran poorly last time at Sedgefield, and i’d be a bit concerned about the form of the Elliot Cooper yard at present.5:45
TOLEDO GOLD has a lot to find at the weights with Jack The Gent and even more with Red Merlin, but neither of those are terribly reliable and at 25/1 he is worth an each way interest. This should be the fastest ground he has run on over hurdles, and given that he isn’t a strong stayer and that his flat win came on good to firm, this should be to his advantage. He has a couple of fair hurdling runs to his name so far and he should get a good toe into the race from Jack The Gent. George Moore’s horse has been disappointing in recent starts and appears to be going the wrong way, perhaps he’s just had enough for this season now. Red Merlin is obviously a class apart from his rivals, but he did put in a very flat effort earlier in the season at Musselburgh and has enough quirks for the 2/5 to not make any appeal. Little Hercules is open to improvement and made a nice hurdling debut when defeating Master Beau last time. The doubt about him is whether he’ll quite have the required pace to live with a few of these over 2m on this ground, and although it would be folly to rule him out, it would be a great effort were he to win. Toledo Gold has got his work cut out to win, but there wouldn’t be much point in backing him if a place was truly the best you could hope for. It’s hard to see him finishing worse than fourth, and given the niggling doubts about those at the head of the market, the chance is worth taking.
2:25 – Petrocelli – 1pt each way at 16/1 (various, bog) Mickwell Bay – 0.75pt each way at 33/1 (B365, bog, 28’s acceptable)
4:40 – Knock Three Times – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (various, bog)
5:45 – Toledo Gold – 1pt each way at 25/1 (various, bog)A small profit over the weekend, and onto another Monday and hopefully it will also provide a profit. Next Monday is a bank holiday with 8 meetings in the UK, it might be that my write ups are a little shorter that day. I’ll try and keep the blog updated this week, but with the sales tomorrow, Epsom on Wednesday and Wincanton Thursday it will probably be random updates at strange times!
I’ve got four for Monday(one at each meeting) two of the races aren’t priced up at the moment, and I would advise waiting until the morning for those rather than taking what are likely to be shorter prices on the exchanges this evening.
Total P/L +190.04
TOWCESTER
2:10
I’m sure this one will raise a few eyebrows, but nothing ventured…………and whilst you can look silly picking a horse like this, I think the chance is worth taking on ORPEN BID, a maiden with an attitude problem, sound like anyone you know? She clearly has some mental issues, but I also think she has a bit more ability than her current rating of 67 implies, and one day I think it will all come together for her. She may get some confidence (if she starts this time!) from the fact that they will be going half a stride slower than she’s used to, having raced over shorter trips, and that may grow throughout the race as several of these are liking to be struggling from some way out. Her best effort to date was on the flat in a 1m3f claimer at Hamilton last summer, where on unfavourable terms with most of her rivals she finished second behing the clear winner Graceful Descent. She followed that up with a solid effort in mid-division back in handicap company. She has two hurdling efforts to her name that suggest a small race could be within her compass. The first of those was at Hexham last June, after nearly a year off she made most of the running until fading late on behind the useful mare Dorabelle. That undoubtedly flatters her, but it still showed some ability is there. More recently at Sedgefield in January she travelled nicely until the second last where she was tapped for toe and finished up in seventh, beaten ten lengths off a 4lb higher mark. Providing she starts ok, I can just see her travelling and travelling, whilst others are struggling, and I just wonder if she will enjoy herself more going that bit slower. I think she would stay 2m4f on a conventional track, she’s not guaranteed to get the trip here, but she must have a fair chance of doing so on the ground and with horses like Earl Of Thomond and Tavalu at the head of the market, I do think she is worth risking, price permitting of course.
2:10 – Orpen Bid – 0.75pt each way at 22/1 or better (should get this and a little more hopefully, possibly 33’s)
Just a quick word on Jolly Boys Outing who runs in the 3:40. I think he is capable of winning from his revised mark, and this race isn’t any better than the one he won. My main concern would be that he isn’t the type who you could rely on to put two good runs together, but I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if he went in again.
EXETER
2:30
A novices selling hurdle that won’t take much winning. Rhyton is a moody/unreliable customer and you take a short price about him at your peril. Jewellery is perhaps the one most likely to run her race, as she’s been consistent of late, but ideally she would like further, although she may just get away with it in this weak field. Rolanta showed a bit more last time at Taunton, she was well backed last week and got her own way up front, but even so she faded tamely late on, and she has shown nothing to convince me that she is one to side with over this longer trip on a more galloping track. EMERALD GLADE improved quite a bit on the flat last summer, and was only sold for a modest 5,500 guineas in the autumn, which looks cheap, although it could suggest a problem. She made her hurdling debut recently in a novice event for mares at Ludlow, and despite a couple of sloppy jumps, she fared well until turning in, at which point she weakened tamely. She may have needed that run to put her spot on for this, and this 2f shorter trip should also help her cause. The race at Ludlow was much stronger, and it was encouraging in the context of this race to see her travel well for the majority of the contest. Hopefully her hurdling will have improved for that and the only question on my mind is whether to back her to win or each way. I’ve reached the conclusion that it’s very difficult to see her out the frame and hopefully she’ll be available at an each way bet to nothing price.
2:30 – Emerald Glade – 2pts each way at 4/1 or better (i’m willing to accept a small loss on the place part, although 5’s may well be available anyway, in which case that won’t apply)
REDCAR
4:20
Lucky Parkes was one of my favourite racemares growing up, and the family as a whole are one of the best in the sprinting business, but it’s not because of any sentiment that i’m backing DOCTOR PARKES in this. Things just didn’t quite go his way last season, but he was most consistent throughout and showed he is capable of winning off this mark. He ran well on his racecourse debut in 2008, won on debut in 09 and ran well last year first time out, and would have been closer at Chester with a clearer run. Forget his effort at Pontefract over this 6f trip last year, that clearly was not his running, he has shown on his other couple of attempts that this trip is within his compass, and actually this easy 6f may well suit better than 5f these days. He goes well for Robert Winston, and Eric Alston had a first time out winner in King Of Eden at Doncaster recently. Red Cape should give him a good toe into the race, and double figure prices look very fair, Dark Lane is the obvious main danger.
4:20 – Doctor Parkes – 1.5pt each way at 11/1 (VC, 10’s with Hill’s/B365 acceptable bog)
WINDSOR
6:50
SPANISH BOUNTY started off last season off a mark of 90, and this time around he starts off 75, but to my eye he showed enough last season to be of interest in this. His attitude isn’t the best at times, that much is obvious, but he did run quite well when sixth at Newbury first time out last season, and as he gets older, he could increasingly become one to catch fresh. He followed that Newbury effort with a fourth at Goodwood over 7f, and although he got the run of the race that day, it was a good effort off a mark of 88. Two more decent runs followed at Chepstow and Newmarket back over 6f. A poor run at Haydock followed, after which he reverted to 5f for the first time since his two year old days, and he just didn’t quite have the necessary pace over the minimum trip. One more poor run ensued at Salisbury, but that was on soft ground (it was quite soft at Haydock too) and I just wonder if the handicapper has been too lenient in dropping him 10lb for two runs on soft ground he doesn’t like, and a run over 5f which is too short. A reproduction of his debut effort last season or one of those in high summer should see him go close in this. The Portman horses have been running well, and it’s the draw which is probably the main concern for one that likes to race prominently. As I said here at the last meeting, bagging the nearside rail isn’t always that big an advantage and Spanish Bounty is experienced enough to race down the centre if need be, although it’s not inconceivable that his pace enable him to cross to near the standside at some point. Taking everything into consideration 28/1 is far too tempting to turn down.
6:50 – Spanish Bounty – 1pt each way at 28/1 (B365, or 25’s Hill’s both bog, anything down to 20’s is acceptable)
Robert I would just like to say that you are a fine tipster. I have been following your selections over the last couple of weeks and your consistency at big price winners is remarkable.
Great find with spanish bounty today, alot of late money for it beofre the off. Shame about the rule 4 as Im sure he would of won anyway given the 5l winning margin.
Keep up the good work!!
It’s fair to say that this little corner of the forum has more golden nuggets in it than a South African goldmine. Truly remarkable analysis.
Hi Robert
Just like to echo other posters sentiments re Spanish Bounty and Golden Parkes. Had small inestments last night with B365 on both as ew singles at prices you highlighted as well as a v small e/w dble and having seen the results now find myself having won a 3 figure sum. Many many thanks and keep up the good work. As another poster indicates your analysis is truly fantastic and I just hope that your amount per point staked is a lot higher than mine which means you are making some good money through this work as second income.
Once again many thanks for sharing your thoughts and analysis on this forum
yorkiedips
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.