- This topic has 14 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
Three Musketeers was a good 5 1/4 lengths 4th in JLT when last seen and has only four chases to his name. The least exposed here and Skelton is in good form. Not so good form as Nicholls though! Vibrato Valtat is possily the most exposed here, on a 3 lbs higher mark than Exeter, 13 lbs worse off for a cosy 4 lengths victory in Haldon Gold Cup over Third Intention who himself is on a 10 lbs lower mark. A gentleman of a horse – “after you Sir” – Third Intention reserves his best to racing fresh and signs of a Tizzard return to form in recent days. However, doesn’t win often enough to apply a main bet. Royal Regatta has won at this meeting over hurdles. Isn’t the most consistent overall, but better record leading and could get a softish lead here (suspect Smad Place might want an easy prep). Smad Place is probably better over further and doubt he’ll be spot on until trying to retain the Hennessey crown. Sire De Grugy wouldn’t be out of this at his very best, one of my favourites, but jumping isn’t as consistently accurate these days. Strictly on “form” is “value”. Got to think if fully fit this yard won’t allow him to go off at 20/1 or 14/1 though. I’ll keep an eye on the market and back him if shortening up. Gods Own won the Haldon Gold Cup a couple of years ago on reappearance, but most of his best form is in the Spring. Sometimes runs freely fresh and at this trip that could be a problem.
I’ve backed Three Musketeers @ 3/1, Royal Regatta @ 13/2 with a saver on Third Intention @ 13/2.
Value Is EverythingYou have backed three of the seven including the favourite. You’re gonna make a fortune on this race.
If they will omitt all the fences in the straight, Smad Place could be worth a try at 7/1.
I’ve a feeling God’s Own is improving. Backed him today and for the Ryanair at 33s. He does well in Spring but that could mislead as he is 3 wins from 7 runs in Oct/Nov with a 2nd and 3rd thrown in
Suspect ground will be the real drawback for Smad Place and V Valtat doesn’t jump well enough. Third Intention I’ve simply given up on after following for a long time – I’m not convinced his recent wind op will be the answer though Sod’s Law will doubtless take a hand.
I think Three Musketeers might be overrated and SDG too unpredictable these days.
Sod’s Law duly delivers
Third Intention’s record after a break is considerably better than other races Joe.
This is his after 60 days break record:http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/profiles/horse/463717/third-intention
Might be one to take on next time out if not getting another long break. Punters often don’t like betting on a horse on reappearance, however, sometimes a horse is only worth backing first time out.
Value Is EverythingYou have backed three of the seven including the favourite. You’re gonna make a fortune on this race.
13/2 (13.3%) + 13/2 (13.3%) + 3/1 (25%) = (51.6%) around 20/21
SPs 13/2 (13.3%), 5/1 (16.7%) and 7/4 (36.4%) = (66.4%) around 1/2
Difference of 14.8% between price taken and SP.
Taking around 20 to 21 about something that started 1 to 2.Let’s be honest, one race doesn’t matter that much to “fortune”s, IB and I know punters often struggle to see further than one race. Chose the wrong saver here. But consistently taking prices that are much bigger than they should be achieves an overall “fortune”.
Value Is EverythingAye, Ginger, but I reckon I’ve backed the horse in 10 or 12 races without success having believed from his younger days there was a decent race in him. One of those that every punter has – you just cannot get it right and at some point you must draw stumps.
He did well today given that early mistake and not sure GO would have caught him had he not run into the back of the blundering Royal Regatta three out, losing a length or two and a fair bit of momentum. It did confirm to me though that God’s Own is an improving horse who arguably wants at least this trip these days and 33s for the Ryanair is still available.
Given his preference for going right-handed, if his improvement continues he’d make a lively outsider for the King George.
Aye, Ginger, but I reckon I’ve backed the horse in 10 or 12 races without success having believed from his younger days there was a decent race in him. One of those that every punter has – you just cannot get it right and at some point you must draw stumps.
He did well today given that early mistake and not sure GO would have caught him had he not run into the back of the blundering Royal Regatta three out, losing a length or two and a fair bit of momentum. It did confirm to me though that God’s Own is an improving horse who arguably wants at least this trip these days and 33s for the Ryanair is still available.
Given his preference for going right-handed, if his improvement continues he’d make a lively outsider for the King George.
You’re one more for following horses than I am Joe. I’d agree to draw stumps on Third Intention again now, at least until having another long break. Most seasons I am only interested in backing him in one race and that race has gone.
Where is there’s any evidence on that run of Gods Own improving and/or staying 3 miles?
Unfortunately Smad Place took on Royal Regatta today, favouring both Gods Own and Third Intention. Latter’s early error forcing him back to rear imo doing him a favour. Also allowing him more room (does better in smaller fields over fences). Disappointed in Three Musketeers, everything seemed right for a good run, well backed and one of the first beaten. Sire De Grugy is much more inconsistent these days, trainer yet to hit form and odds told how he’d fare. Royal Regatta proably went too fast for his own good. Smad Place ran as well as could expect staying on again closing stages. Hennessey will be more to his liking, there’ll be better handicapped horses this time around. Gods Own might struggle this season, with so many top class horses and needing to carry penalties in less than Grade 1 company. Not handicapped that well either. Vibrato did his usual thing of going well through races before finding little. Not sure he truly stays this far.
Value Is EverythingFor evidence of improvement I trust my eyes and experience Ginger, though just checking now, he was rated 159 in March and ran today off 166 which he will stay on at worst, I’d think, and might go up a pound given he was a shade unlucky and was giving the winner 16lbs.
As for him staying 3 miles, I refer you to the opening part of my previous answer! I think he’d be very interesting in the KG and will be surprised if T George is not tempted.
Third Intention had a wind op in the summer. Only just read it but thankfully had backed him or I’d be kicking myself now, not having got round to reading my Jumping Prospects book properly.[sorry, haven’t read this thread properly either; note to self..get organised mo…]
Aaaaw Joe, when I seen he had won, I was hoping to come on here, and see you had backed him, I knew he was a horse you’ve put up here often.
I chucked it with him last season, Bobby. Was beginning to remind me of when I was a teenager and used to arrange to meet a girl. TI was like one who failed to turn up 12 times in a row. A man (and a boy) has only so much patience! Anyway, I was more annoyed that he beat my selection than that he won a race (sods x 2).
That’s his second wind op. No doubt the horse has talent, but he’s been tried at almost every trip there is. In 45 runs he’s never managed two wins in a row. If he can do that this season, I’ll, as they say, watch with interest.
IMO GO is very much ground dependent. If there is Good in the description then the horse will give you a run for your money. I noticed this in his novice season over fences. Backed him in the Tingle Creek but disappointed but chanced him in the Arkle @ 40s and duly placed.
There is a stamina doubt over 3 miles at Kempton (but don’t think he’ll run if the going is soft or worse) as they usually do go a fair gallop in the KG. Also a stamina doubt over the Ryanair trip at Cheltenham but 33s seems a risk worth taking as if he did go for the CC maybe taking the likes of SS and Douvan on. Trainer maybe inclined to go for what he hopes will be the easier race.
Best of luck with him Joe. Just hope he doesn’t turn into another TI for you.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.