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I had been looking at Astronereus for this race but noticed he wasn’t jocked up and decided to wait for the decs. That proved a wise move, as he’s not been declared for this.
The sole reason for tackling the race is the desire to take Penhill on after he only narrowly landed his first race of the season and then failed to settle when backed and very short next time. He looks to me that he needs to relax more and have some cut in the ground, so I want to be against him at 5/1 favourite here.
I’m not going too far against the grain because there looks a ready made candidate in Battersea from the Roger Varian stable.
Battersea was very progressive last season and the son of Galileo looked potentially better than a handicapper when landing the Heritage Handicap the Bristol Handicap at Ascot in September last year. Eight horses from that race had fifteen wins between them since then and Battersea ran too bad to be true next time when well down the field behind Farquhar, who runs here, at Newmarket .
Battersea has been off since and has the absence to overcome but he remains a horse with potential improvement and after a poor start the Varian horses are generally running well recently, with a frustrating amount of second places this last week. He could just be a bit better than seen so far.
Watersmeet has had a good season for Mark Johnston but he remains a muck or nettles trainer for me. Windshear is the class act with top weight to shoulder and at 20/1 some might say he is worth a look dropped down from his normal top company. He’s been a bit of a disappointing horse though, with a poor win strike rate. If there was some rain he might appeal each-way to some Hannon fans (Well probably only Nathan Hughes actually
)I’ll row in with Battersea at 6/1 and hope that he’s got the power, rather than coming home like a dog.
Old Newton Cup Battersea 6/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Paddy Power go 8/1 Battersea. That looks a good each-way play to me. Penhill looks a lemming ship readying to set sail for stormy waters. On the plus side there is yield in the ground now that they put 6mm of water on just before there was 3mm of natural rainfall
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was a big fan of Battersea last year, that Ascot victory was impressive and then he didn’t go at all at Newmarket. I will have a look at this race tomorrow, but generally I find around June/July it is a good time to back horses after long absences as they should be fighting fit.
Good to firm would be preferable and that price wont stay for long I’m sure.Saying that, the going has changed to soft as the rain gods opened up on the course this afternoon. Haydock doesn’t dry up that quickly so that price may well just go out.
Saying that, the going has changed to soft as the rain gods opened up on the course this afternoon. Haydock doesn’t dry up that quickly so that price may well just go out.
Only part of the rain was due to the Gods. Do these Clerks ever follow the weather forecast. “More brains in a sookin’ turkey” as my old mum used to say.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It was a localised storm at Haydock and the clerk of the course had been under tremendous pressure to water from trainers because of the firm ground.
Ryan Moore reported back that Penhill didn’t like the undulations at Newmarket last time so the plan was always to run here as he wouldn’t get into the big handicap at Ascot, yes Battersea was impressive at Ascot last year but I suggest you take a look at the Ripon race on ATR that Penhill won last year on soft ground.It was a localised storm at Haydock and the clerk of the course had been under tremendous pressure to water from trainers because of the firm ground.
Ryan Moore reported back that Penhill didn’t like the undulations at Newmarket last time so the plan was always to run here as he wouldn’t get into the big handicap at Ascot, yes Battersea was impressive at Ascot last year but I suggest you take a look at the Ripon race on ATR that Penhill won last year on soft ground.I’ve seen Penhill and I know he prefers it softer. I’m not a lover of short prices after poor runs, even if there are excuses but others will probably wire in heavily. Even if Penhill is as good as they are hoping, Battersea remains a potential fly in the ointment being as unexposed as he is and at double the odds last night he looked the call to me.
It’s a pet hate of mine to see trainers shouting for watering when it suits their particular horse. As long as the ground is safe, I think the fast ground lovers should get their chance as well. A bit of seaweed hanging outside the office will see the Clerk au fait with the prospects of rainfall
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Keen admirer of Battersea, Ascot win was mighty impressive and looks a type to just get better and better with time and racing. Can’t have Penhill at the prices, always displayed plenty of ability but is incredibly inconsistent and don’t think he has as much natural ability as Battersea regardless.
I would throw Watersmeet into the mix, for a horse that can not really go round a right handed track he has done pretty well lately! Looks interesting now finally going the right (left) way round.
Well I think we are better off having bets on the weather – I think both Battersea and Watersmeet would prefer fast ground and when you get information from the Racing Post going good to soft going stick 8.6 what are you supposed to do ?
Haydock Park / Sat 04 Jul
Updated @ Sat 04 Jul Going/TrackGood to Soft (GoingStick: 8.6 on Saturday at 06:30)Rails: All races will run on the Stand Side Straight. Allowing for rail position, race distances are as follows: 5f 6f 7f 57yds 1m 2f 152yds 1m 4f 37ydsStalls: Centre: 5f, 6f, 1m2f Inside: 7f Outside: 1m4fWatering: We put 6mm of irrigation onto the track on WednesdayWeather10mm of rain during racing on Thursday and 3mm of rain after racing on Friday. Chance of a shower to 10am and then a warm dry forecast.
Straight from BHA site and there have been no updates to the contrary thus far. 10 am shower on BBC forecast looked un likely so don’t see it will be a lot different from yesterday.
Haydock Park twitter is more interested in updating us with pictures of last nights gig and some old age pensioners playing band under a tree
Mr. Varian said he would be happy as long as the ground wasn’t soft. I’m thinking either he wants to get a run into his horse even if there is an ease in the ground or that he is confident Battersea can do the business on good to soft.
I’ve given in and backed him anyhow, small stake just for the **** of it.Roger Varian said that the ground wasn’t what the horse wanted when interviewed just before the race. However, he said they needed to get a run into the horse soon and that was why he was taking his chance.
I felt Battersea sat far enough back but he started a promising looking run before being unable to sustain his effort. He’ll come on a lot for that effort today and Varian said they may aim him at The Ebor.
Penhill was disappointing again. He found cover but still seemed keen enough. He stayed on well enough for pressure without ever looking like winning. He was my angle into this race and I feel I did the right thing in taking him on, since he is beginning to look like he may be a horse who is the friend of the bookies, rather than the punters.
What can you say with another Mark Johnston 1-2? I thought Watersmeet would be involved but not Notarised. Only 15/19 in the Northumberland Plate last week, you could argue that the drop back in trip has worked the oracle this week. However, the last time he met runner-up Watersmeet he was stone last of the nine runners and 25 lengths behind the stable mate he beat today when that horse won the race in question. Channel 4 gave the usual Braveheart/Always Trying/Always Winning platitudes in the aftermath, but Jim McGrath and Graeme Cunningham should have been playing Good Cop/Bad Cop with Mark Johnston under a bright light with one of the two holding him by the throat while trying to squeeze out a reason for a 25 length form turnaround. I fancy Jim McGrath in the Bad Cop role in that scenario.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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