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I know it’s impossible to give an accurate figure due to there being so many variables, but say you back a horse for Cheltenham in October or November, what do you guys and girls reckon the average odds are for it getting injured before Cheltenham and thus not running? I’d guess maybe 20%? Am a bit gutted as 2 of the 4 horses I’ve backed over the past 2 seasons (this one included – allegori de vassy and the nice guy) have gotten injured and my last big ante post bet before that, We Have A Dream 20/1 also got injured a couple of weeks before the festival! Have i just had rotten luck or is it more like 33% to 50% odds of your horse having to pull out if you back it 4-5 months in advance?
As you say, there’s no way of calculating this.
Well there is one, but it would be extremely laborious and time-consuming: look at every ante post Cheltenham list ever and count up how many horses didn’t make it to the festival through injury.
I’ll leave such a thankless task to Chezza- he’s got no life. 😂
As for your own case, I’d say you’ve been very unlucky. I shouldn’t think that the number of horses who miss the meeting through injury is anywhere near 33%.
Ben its hard to put a % on it. It’s just luck of the draw. You’ve had early AP setbacks but the next 5 you do may run. Likewise in another year you could back 7 and they may all run.
It’s an extremely good question from Ben.
“4/1? I’d want that about it even running!”
How often do we hear or read that?
But what are the true odds of a horse getting to an ante-post race target injury free?
Obviously, the longer the period between the bet and the race, the greater the chance.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Yeah I think it’s a fairly important piece of information to know when weighing up the value of odds for ante-post bets and in my head always accepted there was probably 25% (and that’s on the high side I assumed) chance of my bets pulling out, meaning I’d need my implied value odds to be 25% greater than the true odds just to break even long term – i.e if I think a horse should be 8/1 for the festival but is actually 10/1 in October then there’s not much point taking it due to my assumption that the increased value I’m getting is negated by my perceived odds of said horse getting injured – I hope that makes sense, just woke up from a little nap so apologies if it’s incoherent!
I wonder if any of you lads or ladies have a rough estimate of what % of your longer-term ante posts bets have pulled out of the festival through injury?
Bad luck plus the horse itself. The Nice Guy was a bit older than everything else- why? I’d be wary of Appreciate it for the same reason. I probably won’t follow my own advice and get sucked into backing Grangeclare West, Ferny Hollow etc this year only for them to get broken again
If you can beat the SP with Ante Post prices far bigger than that will outweigh taking small prices on the day
My trouble is the win percentage and non runners don’t make up the Ante Post prices taken.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Really depends on the horse
If a horse has been previously injured, like the nice guy or say topofthegame/ferny hollow/appreciate it then its probably quite risky backing them for a race in 6 months time
Sounder horses the risk is way less
Fair point FF, greengrass was eluding to the same thing and yes maybe that’s something I should keep in mind for future seasons and be more hesitant to back previously-injured horses unless the odds offer substantially better value than normal.
I’m surprised no ones shouted out a random % though, feel like it’s a big aspect of ante post betting, I gather we can’t think about it too much and just accept that it’s part and parcel of long-term betting, but whenever I sit down and place a bet I like to weigh up how much each variable plays a part in the desired outcome and when I trust my gut/research on a horse the only thing that I can see stopping it is injury!
Don’t even know what I’m rambling about now to be honest, just had a coffee and its gone straight to my head.
I think as IanDavies said the longer out you place the bet the bigger the risk they don’t make it, as we’ve seen with The Nice Guy some don’t even start the season. Another aspect with this which is unrelated to the topic but very much related to the topic of antepost betting is the opportunity cost. How anyone can think getting 11/8 about Constitution Hill now is a good idea is beyond me. I can understand more with multiples but why would you tie money up for 4/5 months at that sort of price when there are plenty of good 11/8 opportunities day in day out? I blame FOMO. All these guys (and girls) on social media want to shout about how they got that price when he goes off at 4/6 on the day because he’s a Cheltenham winner. Pays the same as any other winner. Its just plain stupid.
Opportunity cost is a really good point, seldom discussed in ante-post.
Example: I never understand why anyone would want to lay the Lib Dems to win Most Seats at the next election at three-figure odds.
They won’t win, but you’d make more money in interest by putting the liability money in a savings account.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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