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I broke even on Saturday with my 2 each way bets when FESTIVE AFFAIRE came 3rd at 12/1.
I have wondered if festival meetings will provide a winner or two and as they go there is a very big on due in Australia and so thought I would give number 12 a punt for the Melbourne Cup: –
JAMEKA is 2nd favourite at 7/1 with SkyBet paying 6 places it has to be a pocket money each way fun bet. They did not know it was supposed to work in Australia as well – Lost!
Billy's Outback Shack
Saturday November 5
MISTIROC Doncaster 3.35 available at 33/1 – this price is too hard to resist for a Saturday fun bet
Lost
Billy's Outback Shack
1.50 Bang Valadom W 7/1
3.20 Ayr Silverton L
7.25 Kemp Plymouth Sound LThese are all down in weight
Saturday 19th November
Number 12 in the big handicap
POINT THE WAY 2.25 Haydock @ 14/1 Lost
Billy's Outback Shack
This has made me pay attention.
Although I consider the number 12 horse to be a fun bet on Saturdays I thought I would give it a run out through the week just to see if could pay its way and the number 12 for tomorrow (Monday) at Chelmsford is in the 3.30: –
ABAREEQ @ 10/1 from the yard of Mark Johnston with Joe Fanning in the saddle. Lost
UPAVON @ 20/1 4.00 Chelmsford LostA little shiver went down my spine because this is perhaps just the type of winner I have so often missed and could kick myself after the event when spotting a Mark Johnston winner at very generous and unexpected price.
Billy's Outback Shack
It is interesting that you have picked up on this idea rab123 and maybe between us we may find some kind of way into this idea.
Reflecting on the origins of it the poster (Loanshark at the Racecaller forum) claims it was only played on the big handicap of a Saturday but himself ran a daily trial for a month producing a profit.
Clarification: the BIG handicap being the one with a minimum of 12 runners having the largest monitory value.
During his month’s trial there was the occasion when two selections were made because it was found impossible to separate two races of equal value. Today is the perfect example with 2 such races at Chelmsford – 3.30 (14 declared to run) and 4.00 (12 declared to run) each with the same prize money. I selected ABAREEQ (3.30) because of the stable and rider over UPAVON (4.00) with a 7lb claimer riding but on review of Loanshark’s comment perhaps I will have to rethink and play UPAVON as well.
Was it a “Lucky” trial? If so it was a profitable one providing over 40 points profit or 20pts on the Saturday selection only.
If rab123 you intend to predict all of the number 12 horses in all handicaps throughout each day we could have a clearer picture by Christmas of the best way to play the system.
Good luck.
Billy's Outback Shack
Late entry for the 4.00 Chelmsford: –
UPAVON @ 20/1
I think perhaps it is best to state my betting plan for the month’s trial.
Unless stated otherwise all bets will be at 1/2pt. each way. Billy's Outback Shack
Not such a good start with two Monday losers but things may get better: –
Tuesday
RIDE THE LIGHTNING @ 8/1 – 12.50 Southwell Abd.
Billy's Outback Shack
Wednesday 23/11
What a shock this one could be: –
POOL HOUSE 3.40 Wolverhampton 3.40 @ 20/1 Lost
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion
I have not been looking at the Numbers post for a while I’m sorry I missed your post.
I will start to post them from Monday and try and see which is the best way to go.Today I like Billy My Boy and September Issue Luke Morris riding for G Kelleway
the other one would be Feeling Peckish but been off the track for 466 days.No worries rab123, I confess to doing too many different things at the same time and will soon start to cull the less profitable as I am getting myself in a muddle, again!
Friday 25/11
AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA 1.05 Newbury @ 33/1 Lost
(I am not put off by the price because it also shows up well via the Pluvius “Under the Radar system”)
Billy's Outback Shack
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