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Well; the last handicap of the season. Having looked quickly at the runners I’m only going to have 2 bets [honestly]. Stormy Weather at 16’s and not wishing to change the habits of a lifetime I’ve got to have an ew on Tilt at 66/1. His weight is dropping more and more [due to the fact that he refuses to go down to the start and when he does he refuses to race anyway] but, if they can get him to start there isn’t usually a horse going faster when the stables are in sight at the end. And it would be typical of him to win on the day that I haven’t backed him. He’s also got a more experienced jockey on board, so he may behave himself. [of course, when the draw is announced I shall be tempted to have a couple more bets].Well; Tilt has got the worst draw possible, so will probably refuse to even leave home on the grounds that it is a complete waste of time. Keep looking at Rangefinder; change of owner recently by the look of it [Munsef’s owner]; jockey changed from a claimer to Jamie Spencer; canny trainer; decent draw; good ew price. And Broomielaw if the ground dries up.
The price seems to be gradually coming in, but Charm School looks to be crying out for 12f. His sire Dubai Destination’s progeny stay much better than he did himself whilst Charm School’s half-brother Dubai Twilight stayed 12f. He’s shaped well numerous time in competitive handicaps this year to suggest he can win a big one should all things drop right.
Also will keep Ella on side. She thrives in soft/heavy ground and has had a light campaign with that in mind. She is less exposed and fresher than many of her likely opponents so can see her going very close.
Would say that Stormy Weather is a decent price and Saldan Licht would have at least finished second LTO but for a shocking ride.
Not often you see a G1 winner in a handicap within 14 months but that’s what you’re getting with Baila Me.
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Saldan Licht
for me at a general 14/1.
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Ella for me.
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They say if in doubt back the top weight……….plenty doubt in this trappy event and a sure fire way to the poor house for the punter who has more than me on.
50p ew on Tatashil
I wanted to back
Hillview Boy
but the plunge on that one means the value has now probably gone.
I am convinced
Broomielaw
is a Group class horse but he ran poorly last time and is unproven on this ground.
One who can go well at a big price is
Magicalmysterytour
However the best bet of the day is
Plaisterer
in the fillies listed race at 2.05. Backed her at 12/1 (Bet365) last night. Has been wildly impressive in a couple of handicaps this season, including over C&D. And last time in a Listed race she wouls surely have won with a clear passage. She got absolutely murdered when about to challenge and looking full of running. The favourite sets a fair standard and won’t be easy to beat but on the grounds of value there is only one bet in this race for me.
There are so many horses that have been aimed at this race it is a bookies benefit. I’m still going to have a small ew on Tilt at 100/1 just in case he does decide to run [terrible draw as well].MMT is a course and distance winner and, if back to his best could run really well. Broomilaw really bothers me; again aimed at the race but surely won’t stay in the ground, but look at his strike rate. It’s a nightmare of a race…Ella would be the nicest win because of her mother winning it 10 years ago. And I have had a silly bet on Rangefinder.
Well; Tilt had gone from 100/1 to 50/1 at Ladbrokes this afternoon, so I missed the price [had to go to work] so backed him again at 66/1 WH. Had small ew on Ladies Best yesterday, because of the trainer. Also ew’s on Stormy Weather, Kings Destiny [who is surely the winner???] and Magical Mystery Tour [horses for courses]. So tempted with Broomilaw but so many things are against him. So along with my bet on Rangefinder [no logic to that one] thats it. Maybe BE has been saying telling Tilt to refuse so he can storm home this afternoon? I surely am turning into the worlds greatest mug punter!
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