- This topic has 27 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Hello Everyone
I’ve been a bit quiet on here of late but now on a 3-day week and winding down to retirement at the end of July, so expect to have a good deal more time to devote to the more serious side of life, to whit ‘horses round a field’! I’ve started this thread which sadly won’t include track visits in the near future due to Covid-19 lockdown so I’ll stick in a few angles and observations. I’m crossing my fingers they might allow ‘Members Only’ meetings later on in the year which will at least allow me a chance to get to Kelso.
I’ve resurrected an old ratings method called ‘The Compleat Handicapper’ I bought in the 1970s from a company in Brighton called PFA Publications, and hope to post ratings of Class 4 handicaps and better on the ‘Daily Lays and Plays’ Forum, assuming the garden and domestic tasks allow the time!
To start the season off though I’d like to signal up a possible angle for the early weeks of the season:
ROGER FELL
I noted last season that Mr Fell showed a particularly strong trend with his handicappers returning to the track within a couple of weeks of last outing. This angle has shown a significant profit over a number of seasons and the stable was roaring along for much of last season. I understand that his favoured training method is not to over gallop at home, rather run them often and get them fit that way. Nothing under hand here, rather that he feels over training the horses doesn’t help them.
I note that Roger Fell has a decent number of entries in the first few days from resart and I will be keeping a close eye no their fortunes and looking to back if they come out within 14 days or so. If i’m right there could be decent profits to be made in late June and into July.
ONE TO LOOK OUT FOR ON THE FIRST DAY BACK
I was very impressed with the King Power owned ART POWER at York in October. He came clear of his maiden field in pleasing style to win by 5 lengths. Not sure of the strength of his opponents that day, but he’s a scopey colt who looked to me as if he would do well for a winter’s growing. Hopefully Sky Racing might cover the paddock as I’d like a decent look, but I think this one is the best on a moderate opening card. I won’t bet as we are almost back to the old days after a winter off, but will be very interested to see how this one has progressed physically.
Rob
Well…, after that first race at Newcastle it looks as if ROGER FELL has got it spot on at the moment. His pair fought out the finish about 6 lengths clear of the remainder! He is a smart trainer and would appear to have adapted his methods to the current situation!
ART POWER completed the job in emphatic style, confirming the impression given in October.
It’s possible Tim Easterby will have pot at Royal Ascot in either Commonwealth Cup over 6 furlongs or Jersey Stakes over 7 furlongs. Ambitious admittedly, and a step up, but you only get one go at these races and this one is useful.
Hi Rob
Roger Fell is also featuring loud and clear on my RADAR i will chip on when i have something noteworthy.
He’s a shrewd operator and can pull of trebles at will.
D21
GETTING A RUN AND RESERVES
Katie Scott raised the point on Twitter that is currently hard for lower rated horses to get a run at the moment. The elimination system favours the horses at the top of the ratings band and horses farther down keep getting balloted out. Given that there are 72 hour declarations it doesn’t seem beyond the realms of possibility that there could be reserves that could take place up to maybe 10am the day before racing.
I have raised this issue with BHAPressOffice twitter account but it seems a ‘one way’ service that never discusses anything. It also would seem sensible that horses that have had a run should slip down the preference list and be the first to be eliminated in order to give those that have been eliminated a run.
Hopefully the problem of elimination will reduce in the coming days. We already have races with less than the full compliment, so it will be less of an issue, but it’s worth consideration at busy times.
TRAINER TO KEY AN EYE ON
TIM EASTERBY has had a couple of winners, with Art Power looking to be a leading light. He’s a trainer who has some decent animals and himself comes from a top class pedigree, but often comes in under the radar.
The stable look to me to need the run in most cases, though Art Power and Al Erayg have won since the return. I’d keep an eye on Easterby’s horses returning for their second and third runs off the break.
HORSES TO NOTE
William Haggas’s HAMISH impressed me at York last October, winning a decent 1m 6f handicap with any amount in hand, having previously won the Melrose Handicap over the same course and distance. He was subsequently shaded out by another progressive animal in Trueshan at Newbury, but the pair were well clear of their two opponents. Hamish looked to me to be a horse that still had a bit of development in him and it would surprise me if he makes up into a ‘Cup horse’ in the coming months. He is qualified for the Ebor so Haggas will presumably have a strong eye on that event.
Haggas also houses CONVICT, a half brother to Hamish and equally stoutly bred. He won last back end over ten furlongs and he definitely has some growing to do so there’s likely to progress into a decent stayer. He’d be a horse that could make a mark in similar races to Hamish, and I wonder if Haggas might have a tilt at the Queen’s Vase at Ascot? Regardless of target, keep this one in mind.
One that was on my list last season appears at Haydock tomorrow in EEH BAH GUM. Close up in decent five furlong handicaps last term this Class 3 event at 2.45 looks a golden opportunity if Tim Easterby has him fit. I note also that Harome appears for Roger Fell, but he needs a small field and quick ground.
Racing in the south tending to overshadow that in the north at the moment with Royal Ascot on the horizon. Hopefully northern stables can plunder a prize or two from the Royal meeting and I will try to seek out the strongest chances.
DONCASTER – Sunday June 14
3.10 1m 2f Handicap (Class 2)A decent looking event with some strong from lines. I look towards a trainer pattern I spotted last year and go for Roger Fell’s ANYTHINGTODAY who should have come on for a very promising effort at Newcastle. 9/1 available in a number of places this morning and that looks a decent price to me.
A decent effort by ANYTHINGTODAY, looked the winner a furlong but caught close home by a decent sort in Fifth Position who looks to have progressed. Anythingtoday ought to gain consolation in the class.
FIFTH POSITION is a big animal who presumably would have taken time to strengthen. He’s worth a try backed in Listed class or perhaps better over the 10 furlong trip.
CONVICT goes for the King George V Handicap on Wednesday. Open race and it will be a good chance to see how this one had developed over the winter. Not favoured on the ratings I’ve been using, but it’s a very close race by my reckoning with no more than 10lbs covering the lot.
CONVICT ran a fair to middling race in the King George finishing tenth. I would be interested in thsi oner when he steps up in trip again.
ART POWER goes for the opening Palace Of Holyrood Handicap and I would hope he will take this place on the way to greater things. He has stacks of speed and handles the softish ground having cruised up at York last October in similar conditions.
HAMISH goes for the Hardwicke Stakes. Odd to see this one down in trip rather than stepped up, but at least this will be a decent sighter for William Haggas to see what he has this season.
ART POWER wins in emphatic style to confirm my impression that Tim Easterby has a serious animal on his hands.
A decent effort by HAMISH to finish a closing fourth in the Hardwicke Stakes. Tapped for pace a bit coming off the home bend and had to pick a route through but stayed on to the line. He needs a bit further and I’d be taking note of him once returned to 14 furlongs or farther.
A decent meeting coming up at Ayr on Monday as Scottish Racing kicks back into action. Land Of Burns Stakes has filled nicely and often throws up a progressive sprinting filly. I’ll look to do a report on any significant performances from that meeting and the rather more low key affair at Hamilton on Wednesday.
My aim had been to go swanning off to the racing on a regular basis at this point as circumstances were such that I had intended to retire. With lockdown in place I stuck on at work (or rather at home!) to support the company but it’s 3 days a week now, the 4 day weekend is quite fun! Plan to finally draw stumps at the end of July. I hope that there will be some racing to visit not too long after that. I do wonder if we might get Members Only attendances to start with which would at least allow a return to Kelso in September. The Scottish Government have been cautious, rightly so in my opinion, about easing Covid-19 restrictions. This may mean we lag a little behind England in terms of time we can get back to spectator sport, but at least there is racing to watch if only from a distance.
Keith Dalgleish has a bit of a twilight horse in ABERAMA GOLD. This one won a Listed event at York in October in pleasing style, but that looked to be a case of a horse suited by the conditions in a race where the favourites didn’t fire on the soft ground.
Aberama Gold ran in the Commonwealth Cup yesterday and didn’t run a bad race, being up with the pace before fading in the final couple of furlongs to finish 14th beaten about 10 lengths. Figures wise he’s run to about 85, assumnig the winner Golden Horde ran up to his rating of 114, but allowing for the fall off once reserves have run out he’s probably around 92 to 95 at best so needs to fall a bit in the handicap ratings. If Aberama Gold does drop then he may be one to note in Handicap or Listed company, but it will be a case of the softer the ground the better.
Regarding ART POWER, the main target according to his trainer Tim Easterby is the Nunthorpe Stakes in August but he may go to “Goodwood or somewhere else first”. Whether he can match Battaash at this point I don’t know, but this is an animal with a lot of natural speed and he settles very well. In all three wins he has led or raced prominently and accelerated off the front, so settling is the least of his problems.
MONDAY JUNE 22nd
Plenty of decent action in the North at Thirsk and Ayr and plenty to take forward for the coming weeks.
THIRSK
The time of the opening fillies’ maiden was decent and the race was won in pleasing style by HALA HALA HALA. always travelling well at or near the pace, she eased away in the final furlong whilst giving the impression there is more to come. I’m sure Kevin Ryan can find a decent contest for this one.
Groveman won the mile and a half handicap under an excellent ride from Jack Garrity. One to take from this contest was CAPE COAST who ran an excellent race off a two season absence. Harrying the leader in the final two furlongs, he wasn’t beaten far and must surely pick up a race before long.
James Bethell trained STOCKBRIDGE TAP pushed odds-on A Star Above all the way in the first division of the 1m 4f maiden. The pair puleld clear of the remainder and this looks sound form, a Stockbridge Tap visit to the winner’s slot looks only delayed a short while. Presumably named after the ale establishment in Raeburn Place, Edinburgh?
ROSCOMMON
Hardly my patch but anything coming from off the pace is at severe disadvantage here with a sharp final bend and a three furlong straight. BLUE SHADOW made notable progress from the rear up the straight in the seven furlong maiden, finishing fourth. There’s a staying three-year-old race to be won with this one.
AYR
The Land O’ Burns Fillies Stakes often yields a decent sprinting filly and this year looks no different, Michael Dods trained QUE AMORO putting significant distance between herself and her opponents in the final two furlongs. She looks better than Listed level on this form and can step up again.
Stable mate QUEENS GIFT gave away too much ground with a tardy start and never got into the contest, though keeping on for fifth. She has the ability to win at this level.
MERRY BANTER showed very good early place and kept on well enough for second. She should be capable of winning a race if sights are lowered a little.
CLUB WEXFORD ran a decent race for second in the Class 3 mile handicap. Roger Fell’s runners are worth backing if coming off a recent run and I’d look out for this one in the next 2 or 3 weeks.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.