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You study the form and the going and the track and the trends and make reasoned calculated selections and then hope you have it all correct and that you have not missed anything out and what happens???
Your better half has £4 a race and backs Cougar Mountain each way at 33/1 !!
Then she backs Buratino each way at 10/1 !!
Then proceeds to back Goldream each way at 28/1 !!At that point I metaphorically threw all my studying and systems out of the window!!
Jealousy was not an issue but she did call me Mr Grumpy!!! GRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Think everyone knows how you feel Raymo, but I will answer you scientifically…
You missed out the one factor that is absolutely vital in showing an over all profit, and that is Value (as in – the horse needs to have a better chance than odds indicate). If a punter does not take value in to consideration (even after taking all those things you mention in to account) then he/she has no more chance of showing an over all profit than someone using a non scientific methods. In fact, non scientific methods can be more likely to show an over all profit because it picks bigger prices – more likely to have one or two lucky wins that pay for the rest plus a bit extra.
It is easy for the “scientific” punter to believe he/she is doing well, because backing the “form horse” will come up with many race winners, but unless value is taken in to account in the selection process it won’t win enough races to show a profit. Very occasionally a punter will come up with a selection process that identifies horses whose chance is under-rated (value) without actually looking for “value”, but this rarely lasts – bookies find these methods and reduce their prices accordingly.
Not that backing “value” horses stops the non-scientific from beating you pointless on any given day. If backing big outsiders because they might be what you believe is value – it obviously has far less chance of winning than a non-scientific or even “form” (non-value seeker) punter backing shorter priced animals. So on any particular day a non-scientific/non-value seeker punter will sometimes have a better chance of profiting than the value punter. But over all the value hunter will (IF good at what he/she does) come out in profit over all.
The answer is not to throw the form books out of the window, but study the form intensely, because logic is the way to identify value/profit.
Value Is EverythingAfter seeing Goldream run 7th in a Group 2 less than a month ago, my thoughts of him landing the Group 1 were small. Hence the odds. But a jolly well done to Robert Cowell (and raymo61’s wife of course)
Where is the value in value , if the “value” bet , like the scientifically and non-scientifically selected bet loses .
Value is of no value at all unless the horse wins . Oh , we can pat ourselves on the back
all day long for getting a march on poor old Mr. Bookie – but unless our valued chosen beast
gets his snorting nostrils past that winning post before the rest , value ( in this context ) it means nothing at all .That friends , is an irrefutable fact .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Where is the value in value , if the “value” bet , like the scientifically and non-scientifically selected bet loses .
Value is of no value at all unless the horse wins . Oh , we can pat ourselves on the back
all day long for getting a march on poor old Mr. Bookie – but unless our valued chosen beast
gets his snorting nostrils past that winning post before the rest , value ( in this context ) it means nothing at all .That friends , is an irrefutable fact .
Ha ha.
Whilst I understand what Ginger is trying to say, and he is right to a large degree, you are also correct. It is no good patting yourself on the back when you have got 16/1 about a 6/1 chance if that horse gets stuffed.
at the end of the day if every horse you back wins you will make money, end of story. It’s all about picking winners – not under the odds though.
Where is the value in value , if the “value” bet , like the scientifically and non-scientifically selected bet loses .
Value is of no value at all unless the horse wins . Oh , we can pat ourselves on the back
all day long for getting a march on poor old Mr. Bookie – but unless our valued chosen beast
gets his snorting nostrils past that winning post before the rest , value ( in this context ) it means nothing at all .That friends , is an irrefutable fact .
You still haven’t got it H…
Getting 4/1 about a horse starting @ 3/1 is not what I mean as “value”. The horse might still only have a worse than 20% chance of winning and so 4/1 may not be value. Conversely, even if getting 3/1 about something that goes off 4/1 does not necessarily mean you’ve got poor value. It still may have a better than 25% chance and therefore “value”, just not as good value as 4/1. Only over time do you know if you’ve got value over all.Punters need a better than 50% strike rate @ Evens to make a profit. Therefore, when betting @ a best price of Evens a punter should only back horses he/she believes have a better than 50% chance of winning. It does not matter if any individual bet wins or loses, what matters is the strike rate. Why would you be happy with one individual Evens winner when knowing you do not achieve a better than 50% strike rate needed to show an over all profit?
Saying, “but unless our valued chosen beast gets his snorting nostrils past that winning post before the rest , value ( in this context ) it means nothing at all” – misses the point. Because of course, if a punter does not get enough winners then he/she has not achieved “value”.
If you’re getting 4/5 about heads in a coin toss and it comes down heads… you win. But everyone knows that if you keep on taking 4/5 about 50% chances you’re going to go broke over time. Judging an individual winner as “value” after it has won the race is futile, nobody can get on after the horse has passed the post.
P.S.
I backed Amazing Maria today @ 40/1, not because it had the best chance of winning. In fact I had her down as only a 3.5% chance (fair 28/1) so 40/1 was good value.Value Is EverythingNo , Ginge ; I’ll say it again – even ad nauseam if you like.
Cast aside those ghastly numbers for a second and instead concentrate on
the profundity ( indeed , truism ) of my argument .Forget numbers for a second ; : I know it’s impossible for you, Ginge
and try to accept the basic tenet of what I said is essentially true : i.e.Value is only value ( in betting terms ) when you make a profit
from said “value” bet. If not , it is meaningless. Yes ?Your trouble , Ginge , is that you’re so up to your jodhpurs in numbers
that you just can’t find those old dictionaries and philosophy
books.Luckily for me , IBracing is one who does gets it.
Btw , do you count yourself to sleep ? Just wondering .
I look forward to you baffling us numeracy philistines with more of your wizened posts .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Value is only value ( in betting terms ) when you make a profit
from said “value” bet. If not , it is meaningless. Yes ?Almost H, thought you finally realised your mistake there…
“Value is only value ( in betting terms ) when you make a profit”… correct; if you were talking about over all profit…
But NOT if you’re talking about one particular “said value bet”.
Unless the punter can see past the one individual bet at the end game he is doomed to failure.
Why isn’t every horse in a race priced the same H?
Because not all horses have the same chance of winning. Odds compilers go through the race and come to an opinion on the percentage chances of each horse. The bookie then adds a mark up to those percentages and offers prices slightly worse than what they think each horse has got of winning.The Early price favourite is the horse the bookies odds compiler believes has the best chance of winning and has altered the price accordingly. If you are right – and Value does not matter – then you’d just as well back every favourite. But (Sorry H) because the market has an over-round you will end up in deficit.
It is our job as punters to identify horses the odds compiler or market has got wrong (value). If we are good at identifying these horses we show an over all profit, if not we show a deficit.
Value Is EverythingLuckily for me , IBracing is one who does gets it.
Look at IBracing’s last line on his post H.
Value Is EverythingI was only having a moan because the wife was backing winners like they were going out of fashion!! LOL
Get her signed up to the forum raymo, she could win you some prizes in the comps.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
She backed five place horses out of six today Nathan!!!
I am thinking of starting a tipping service for her
Better valued chance of landing a prize with the two of you.
Plus you could steal her votes for the end of year awards……
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
After seeing Goldream run 7th in a Group 2 less than a month ago, my thoughts of him landing the Group 1 were small.
My thoughts of Goldream landing the Kings Stand were positive. I put a line through his ‘7th’ in the Temple Stakes and, instead, chose to revert back to his previous success in the Palace House win where he put up some snazzy sectionals. I thought that if a reproduction of that win was repeated in the Kings Stand, then he’d have a fine chance of winning it and so I was on him like a heatseeker with a £2 straight win … the value of his odds were irresistible.
Take Amazing Maria for instance. If you look back on her 2YO form, she was a pretty damn good horse and while she didn’t quite hit the same heights later on in her career, for me, her ability was lying dormant (rather than lost) and was a timebomb primed to spring back at some point. Needless to say, I backed her too!
As a courtesy I thought I would list the wife’s selections for Thursday on here….
Rogues Gallery and Waterloo Bridge
Don Camillo and Librisa Breeze
Curvy
Windshear and Kingfisher
Sugar Boy and Make It Up
Rocky Rider and Taper Tantrum
She has had £1 e/w on all of them apart from Curvy which she has had £2 e/wNow I have put them on here they will probably all get beat and she will blame me!! LOL
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