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Right i think i have my seconds set of final selections. They are liable to change by the day, but i’m looking at…
Silver By Nature
– I’m not a favourite backer, but i couldn’t resist this one. Really gutsy stayer and showed this when the post came too soon in the 09 Welsh National. Since then he’s gone on to win 2 more really good staying chases. Well weighted and his usual tactics of remaining prominent throughout are ideal for the National which is a front runner race. 16/1 are odds one really expects.
King Fontaine
– Decent horse with 2 impressive wins this season. His jumping might be atrocious at times, but he’s never fallen and despite often making mistakes; he’s still able to plug on and win. His fifth at Cheltenham was a really encouraging run considering it was a rather peculiarly run race. His jumping will make or break him. 66’s are amazing value.
Roll Along
– He is a good horse with a hint of class. He’s better than his most recent runs, obviously needed easing into things considering he’d been off the course for over a year. I reckon the trip will suit, i just hope he finds himself at the right places at the right times. I’ll take 150’s any day of the week.
Vic Venturi
– Another hint of class. Obvious course form with the Becher and won the Bobbyjo last year (the same race which has made The Midnight Club such a strong favourite). Was brought to a standstill at the first last year by Eric’s Charm’s fall and Rhyme N Reasoned his way back into things before being hampered at the pileup at the 20th and coming down. Got to be considered again. 40’s are beautiful value.
The Tother One
– Man this race is classy. This one has all the right credentials. Placed in some really good races including the Charlie Hall and the Hennessy. Nothing to suggest he won’t stay and usually jumps soundly. Again great value at 50’s
That’s Rhythm
– Aiden Coleman could make up for missing out on a 100/1 win on Mon Mome for a 100/1 win on this one. Connections obviously think he’ll stay for running him in 2 Scottish Nationals. Finished 4 lengths ahead of my boy Midnight Chase last May and we all know what he’s gone on to become. This one just clicks with me and i like his prospects in this.
Vic Venturi
– Another hint of class. Obvious course form with the Becher and won the Bobbyjo last year (the same race which has made The Midnight Club such a strong favourite). Was brought to a standstill at the first last year by Eric’s Charm’s fall and Rhyme N Reasoned his way back into things before being hampered at the pileup at the 20th and coming down. Got to be considered again. 40’s are beautiful value.
Glad I’m not the only one. Lest it not be forgotten that he hacked up in that Bobbyjo and beat Black Apalachi comfortably. Think he’s got an incredible chance. He’s by far my biggest winner in the race and only fear Don’t Push It.
If Northern Alliance’s connections leave it until the day to decide whether or not they’re running him i will be seriously pissed. It’s not fair that they waste a spot in the biggest race of the year where horses like Royal Rosa will be missing out.
got to agree with you there, its like roll along only being 50/50, if i had a horse in the national and it was lame the weekened before, no matter what, id withdraw and not risk running it even if it did become sound before the race
vf
got to agree with you there, its like roll along only being 50/50, if i had a horse in the national and it was lame the weekened before, no matter what, id withdraw and not risk running it even if it did become sound before the race
vf
Basically like punching someone in the stomach, winding them. Then after about 10 minutes, when the winded feeling has gone away sending them off on a marathon. They might be fit to compete, but they are in no condition to even come near their best efforts and could easily re-injure themselves and in a race like the National; these injuries might be ones they never recover from. It’s just not worth it.
And this is coming from a Roll Along supporter.
Ginge
Extremely thorough review and I was reading your pedigree analysis very closely, as is my want!
The only thing I must add, and it will probably be superfluous in any case, is that Golden Kite is from the family of West Tip and Royal Athlete so I can’t agree that he has outstayed his pedigree. Nevertheless, I have harped on about Strong Gale’s influence for many years now so despite his lofty connections he still wouldn’t stay 4m4f!
Don’t forget Niche Market is from the family of Amberleigh House too. But again, I don’t hold much faith in Niche Market getting the trip either.
Personally, I am siding with one horse that I believe is going to mean the stats/trend followers make some further adjustments to their mathematical approach for a third successive year.
My main horse is from a very good if unspectacular family. His two half brothers have winning form over 3 miles. One of them beat an ageing Grand National winner over hurdles and finished a creditable 14l behind Hardy Eustace at the Cheltenham Festival.
He is also related to Moscow Express, an amazing horse that won 26 of his 81 races ranging from 1m 6f to 3m 1f, the latter being his victory over Florida Pearl in the Powers Gold Cup.
On the face of it, some would argue he doesn’t have the class to win a modern day National. Well, I don’t agree. I think this fella does and what’s more there is scope for further improvement.
His much under used damsire had a runner up in the National and a winner of an Eider. His maternal grandsire has produced two Grand National winners. Not only that he could also be found in the likes of Bit Of A Skite, Imperial Call, Moorcroft Boy, McKelvey and Supreme Glory.
He’s shown aptitude in big runner fields for someone so inexperienced and probably should have won his last race had he not been taken on a much more circuitous route compared to that of his conqueror that day.
Many just can’t have him, which is fine by me. Five of the last six Irish winners of the race had won or been runner up in a race over 3m 4f+. The sixth was runner up in a Topham. This horse has finshed runner up over 4 miles. It is of course BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE.
If Northern Alliance’s connections leave it until the day to decide whether or not they’re running him i will be seriously pissed. It’s not fair that they waste a spot in the biggest race of the year where horses like Royal Rosa will be missing out.
I sort of agree with you Peter it appears he`s trod on a stone so could still be ok come Saturday.
I think in reality if the horse is not right come Friday morning it will be withdrawn.Personally, probably with a mixture of head and heart, I think Comply Or Die will run a big race on Saturday.
I agree it’s easy to glance at the form figures and write it off, but it showed little before running 2nd in 2009 (though didn’t race over any marathon trips that season if I recall correctly). However, its recent form for me is a lot better than it looks.
Take a look at its run around Warwick. 6th, beaten 32l says the formbook, but he jumped superbly and kept battling out in front until headed as they started the run for home. Gradually weakened after, but made a bad mistake at the last, which probably exaggerated the margin also – though he was well beat at the time. That was a great run in my opinion under the circumstances.
Same applies at Newcastle in the Eider Chase. Has a P next to his name, but that’s hardly disgraceful given the circumstances. Again he jumped well, and despite feeling the pinch at about 4 or 5 out, kept galloping better than some, and may even have regained 3rd had he finished the race.
Considering he was giving lumps of weight to his rivals in both those runs, carrying 11-12 on heavy ground over marathon trips.
The ground will be a lot better on Saturday, and is given a great chance at the weights for the first year since his success. I think he will run well for a long way, if not all the way, and there are far worse 50/1 shots about.
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What are peoples thoughts on Grand Slam Hero, I was just thinking that Backstage is presumably well thought off after his demolition at Ffos Las last year and rightly went onto run well in the Grand National. Now that day he beat Nostringsattached 10 lengths giving the runner up 5lbs and there is nothing to say that the runner up never ran his race dispite how poor the form has turned out.
You look at Grand Slam Hero, he’s beat the same horse in the same race a year later who was 8lbs lower yet beat him 8.25l giving away 10lbs bounding clear at the last before being eased towards the line. In 2008 Grand Slam Hero was an easy winner over 3m3f, cantering his way around over hurdles so nothing to suggest that he wont get the national trip but another thing to note is he likes ground that is the fast side of good which hopefully he’ll get Saturday.
If this horse hadn’t unseated at the first in the Galway Plate and come within touching distance of the winner or Majestic Concorde he’d be much shorter than 66/1.
My main worry is he’s a little sketchy with his jumping but he’s been in handciap chases for 2 years now and has progressed from a mark of 117 to 150 slowly but gradually which probably has gone un-noticed by the public despite hitting his first little blip at 150 where he’s been dropped to 147 for the National but you could say that his recent affairs have only been preps so he could yet improve again for further and looks to come good this time of year with the sun on his back.
Going for a little nibble at 66/1. £50 ew.
Mr W: A few things put me off this bet. NTD yard could not be in any worse form if they wanted to! Secondly, i feel positive one of their stable jockeys would be riding if he was their No1 chance of winning (nothing against Aidan Coleman of course, who has had a superb year). Finally on a purely trends basis he has not run within 50 days which is a massive requirement.
Good Luck with your bet though
Just in case anyone needs even more of an appetite-whetter, ESPN Classic is showing "The Top Ten Grand Nationals" on Friday night at 8pm
(though seeing as it’s on for an hour, it won’t be the races in their entirety!)
Am leaning towards Backstage, State of Play and hoping Skippers Brig can get in. Will wait and see what the ground does though, before committing.
detroit orchid; I hope you’re right about The Chief. I’ve even backed him at 33/1 [even though 40’s was available;only tiny bets I hasten to add] because I’d backed him at Cheltenham at 40’s when he won and missed the 33’s at Aintree the day he won the big hurdle. Oh heck; perhaps that means I shouldn’t have backed him at 33’s? Anyway, if I had any special clothes to wear or rituals to perform to make him win I would do so. He wouldn’t be my best bet winnings wise if he came first, but I don’t think that would bother me too much. Very interrupted few months training wise with his trainer being so poorly, but hopefully back on track now.
Our Monty misses the National due to an infection
Hoping that Golden Kite will get in. Only 2 more to come out and with 2 horses rated 50:50, am hopeful.
He lacks steel in a finish does that horse which his record of 4 wins in 16 shows.
Anybody paying 6 places? setantabet refunding all losing win bets on irish trained horses that get around.
BHigg: I too am waiting on Golden Kite however only NTD will make his decision tomorrow before 9 o’clock so that the next reserve may run, Tony Martin has stated he will not, he will give the horse every opportunity despite having 90% chance of not running to form let alone running, shameful really!
Looks like Skippers Brig fans will be getting a run after all
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