- This topic has 528 replies, 108 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
the trainer and owner must fancy Quinz, as surely they wouldnt miss cheltenham, a festival in which the horse has a top chance of winning a decent handicap, for the national!!
I honestly believe that Quinz is the ‘lay of the century’ in the National taking a lead from the D Express. He would be:
* 1st novice to win since 1958.
* 1st 7 year old to win since 1940.
* 1st in his family to win a chase beyond 3 miles.
* Only the second French-bred horse to win since 1918 despite the French providing 25% of the runners since 1998.
* 1st Nat winner not to have had at least 10 starts over fences.I have a lot of respect for Hobbs but he won’t be getting my money this time
That’s very good news Gaz.
Bet him at big prices for it last week, and very happy with the way things are going with him. Have laid a right few quid off though, to put me in a decent position. Still got a nice amount lying on him. I’ve already apologised for the aftertiming on the Racing Post Chase thread, but no harm in doing it again. Sorry for the aftertiming.
Also bet One Cool Cookie last week, looks as if he’ll get in no probs, and I think he looks very well weighted if he does. If he does go, I think he’ll be a fraction of the price he is just now.
My earlier bet on King Fontaine looks gubbed, but he’s still in there. I’d have to hope the ground played a big part in his dismal run at Haydock, and to be fair, he never looked too happy on it, but it was a poor show.
As already stated, on State Of Play e/w, and I think he’s a live contender.
Used to only bet 1 horse every year when the weights come out, and 1 horse on the day, it was much simpler then.
Well that’s my 4, and I’m sticking with them. (I think)
I’m still liking character building although looks like he needs a few out to get in.
Few GN horses are running today so will be interesting.Of the rest I fancy…
Dream Alliance. Nice horse, jumped well last year and think he’ll improve for that
Big Fella Thanks. He’s the horse I’d most like to sit on. He gave a dream ride last year and I think he’ll improve than his 4th place last year.Strange, the bookmakers cut Ballabriggs for winning a couple of hurdles and then leave him unchanged when he gets beaten over fences? Even allowing for the winner having a new lease of life, he found disappointingly little off the bridle and I think there are big doubts about him staying the trip and even if he did whether he is good enough.
stilvi
It seemed to me that Ballabriggs was beaten by a horse targeted at this race, something Nicky Richards has done before with the better contests at Kelso. To my eye Skippers Brig was trained just that bit sharper for this race.
That aside, I really don’t see Ballabriggs as a Grand National horse. I can’t see that an all out staying slog plays to his strengths. I reckon he’d be better aimed at handicaps in 3m to 3m 2f range. To my mind he couldn’t stick with Silver By Nature over extended distances, particularly if it came up soft.
Rob
Does Ballabriggs find much under pressure?
Long way in front going to the last in the Kim Muir, only just hanging on. Then yesterday, looking all over the winner before emptying.
Or,
Is Ballabriggs at the end of his stamina limitations at 3m1f?Either way, does not look an ideal Grand National type. If it was not for being "The Grand National" and trained by "Master McCain"; he’d be 20/1 +.
Value Is EverythingWish i got on Backstage earlier. Was a long time ante post favourite last year, so to have been able to get 50’s on his this uear is a good opportunity lost…
But i am LOVING my 150’s on Vic Venturi!
I’ve got some "silly" ante posts on the race but my favourite has to be 190’s on Ambobo in the TBP market (still 140). At the moment it is silly but I liked the way he stayed on under pressure today carrying more weight than those in front of him and I’ve never forgotten the way he was travelling in Niche Markets Irish National when he unseated. Definitely "silly" at the moment but silly has been turned into shrewd once or twice! His Puchestown Festival form isn’t too shabby to say the least.
As for Backstage, perhaps the only thing I can see that is markedly in his favour (I know the horse he beat in his recent P2P has won since)is that he is by the same sire as Mon Mome. Failing that there is nothing I have seen that tells me he can stay 4m 4f off a mark of 148. Once again the RP has aided the shortening of a horse in the market as a consequence of Pricewise’s judgement being deemed superior than the actual weight of the money laid out on the horse in question. As to Backstage’s last victory at Ffos Las, one has to ask the question – what did he beat when carrying only 10-1? The answer, aided by hindsight, is precisely little. This horse is not worthy of joint favouritism by any stretch and the 50/1 that has been taken on here is a much fairer reflection of his chances.
Kendal, nothing "silly" about Ambobo. You’re spot on about Niche Markets Irish national, he would have won with a bit to spare, but I suppose jumpings the name of the game. That u/r still haunts me.
Was my ante-post selection for this race before, and I can’t understand why he hasn’t went for it before. Mentioned him earlier on the thread, as one of interest. Shame he’ll struggle to get in, but as you say, his price reflects this, but hasn’t went unnoticed either
If you like the "silly" bets at the big prices, then Junior of Pipes is another at huge prices, who’ll struggle to get in, but if race dramatically cut up would be a fraction of what it is now.
However, as with Ambobo, would be unlikely.
Can I join the ‘horses I’ve backed but don’t think they’ll get in’ club? Actually haven’t backed him, but would still back Ballyfitz if I thought he’d get a run [he won’t]. As for the rest, I’ve been looking at the race for so long I can’t see the wood for the trees any more. However, I do have a list of your’s, KC that you did a couple of years ago of horses you thought would get the trip [at least, I think it was you] and there are still a few running this year..Ballytrim, Character Building, One Cool Cookie and Roll Along. Haven’t backed Roll Along, but backed the others [and a ‘few’ others!] Thankfully, most of them seem to be running, with the exception of Merigo who I don’t think will get in.
Yeah, shame about Ballyfitz moe, would have liked to have seen him there too.
As for Merigo, still think he’ll sneak in. Snowy Mornings been taken out, so that’s one less for you to worry about.
Silver By Nature gets the go ahead, which is great news. This National is shaping up absolutely beautifully. I’m still really relieved to hear Quinz take his shot. He’s in the right form and right weight area to make a profound effect. I know the whole novice winner etc stat, but hey if he can win a race like the Racing Post chase which isn’t novice company then he must have a decent shout in the National?
My "short" list seems to be unmoved since last time with just a couple being withdrawn…
Notre Pere
Deep Purple
Giles Cross
Midnight Chase
One Cool Cookie
Roll Along
Royal Rosa
Vic Venturi
Hello Bud
Chief Dan George
Le Beau Bai
Saddlers StormSo still with 12 to sort out although i am really doubting Saddlers Storm, Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross’ participation considering the weights. Hell my cut off point is around the Frankie Figg area.
But you never know.
I think you might be surprised at who gets in. This race is still going to cut up between now and April 9. A lot can go wrong in the next 33 days!
I haven’t been on here for a while so forgive me for not seeing some of the earlier posts….got a lot to trawl through!
It’s quite telling what an influence Sadlers Wells has in the race. Of the 82 standing their ground, 19 are by Sadlers Wells stallions and one is out of a Sadlers Wells mare. Almost one quarter of the entire field.
I am being a bit lazy but I have gone so far and can’t really go any further.
I have a trend spreadsheet that I’m trying to update and I know that any horse that has been without a win for over two years has a pretty apalling record in the race but I don’t know who was the last horse to win with such a stat. Amberleigh nearly qualified but had won a race at Bangor just inside the two year cut off.
This year there are 14 in the entries that haven’t won for over two years, some due to injury but that’s by the by for stat purposes. The horses in question are,
Arbor Supreme
The Tother One
Surface To Air
State Of Play
Starzaan
Royal Rosa
Roll Along
Quolibet
Pomme Tiepy
Ornais
Killyglen
Faasel
Comply Or Die
Character Building
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.