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What kind of correlation is there between those trips a horse wins at over hurdles and those it wins at over fences ? I notice that the Racing Post will give a D or CD to a horse that has won over say, 2 miles, whether it was over hurdles or fences, but I would’ve thought there was at least some difference between the two. In tomorrow’s opener at Chelt’, for example, LOOSEN MY LOAD is shown to have won at the trip, but that was hurdling ; since he’s been chasing he’s won at 18, 19 and 20f. Wouldn’t it be unwise to think he could cut back to 16f on the strength of hurdle victories alone.
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BB
In my experience, horses generally stay further over fences than they do hurdles, owing to he number and size of the obstacles breaking up the pace more in chases.
As you’re no doubt aware, LML’s course win came over hurdles, so he’s shown as a C and D winner, rather than C/D, though I’d agree he might struggle for speed tomorrow, as he may have nicked that race from the front.
He’s probably going to have to force the pace in this but, fwiw, I’d say that Kilmurry, for one, should have too much speed for him (lack of rain allowing, of course).
The horse clearly has a lot of promise though, and they’re possibly trying to find out where they stand with him.The race is contentious but I’m leaning towards
KILMURRY
myself. My tissue fot the race reads : Kilmurry 3/1 ; Radium 7/2 ; Loosen My Load 7/2 ; Captain Chris 5/1 ; Ghizao 6/1. Kilmurry is around 9/2 at the moment and if I could get 5/1 I’d be more than happy !
Thanks for taking the time to respond, btw.
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