October 27, 2006 at 23:17 #358
I doubt channel 4 will be overjoyed they are having to show the 2yo races (they avoid them like the plague for some reason) but I am as I find the form easiest to study (though not necessarily to win on).
The card is kicked off with an interesting maiden at 1:00. Mr Napper Tandy catches the eye on his last run, but it’s hardly going to be a value bet and Limbo King and The Carlton Cannes are both expected to improve from their first runs. Silmi and Mutual Friend are both overpriced on the tissue according to my crude calculations but the one that makes most appeal is Arabian Gulf. It has an almost flawless pedigree (25-25-23) (all out of /25) on my workings and seeing the money come for it tomorrow would really tempt me to get stuck in (I’m monitoring the exchanges for fluctuations and will post my findings in lays and plays). American Spin wouldn’t be without a chance either though it would be more of an e/w bet.
The 1:30 looks at the mercy of Siamese Cat. It was not close to Indian Ink last time out but thats hardly surprising given that Indian Ink has a RPR of 111. However I noted it stuck to its task well that day and I will be surprised if you can get any 6/4 in the morning. As long as SC runs to form, the one horse I can see causing problems is Measured Tempo, a Godolphin 2yo. The good thing I’ve noticed about Godolphins 2yos recently is the market tells its own story. Unless the money comes thick and fast (which it might), I will be very happy to stick with Siamese Cat. Comma would probably be a place lay for me at less than 2/1.
In the 2:05 the favourite again looks to have strong claims but I like the chances of Philanthropy e/w. As the racing post syas, his stable mates looks to hold stronger claims, but if you look at the run of Massive next time out, who Philanthropy just beat, it suddenly makes the form look very good. Considering that Philanthropy is proven on the ground and over the distance, and that it form may be under-rated and you have a good looking e/w bet. One To Follow has a bit to prove trip and ground wise and so Fashion Statement may fill the other place.
The 2:35 looks pretty difficult but I would go for Sues Surprise and hope it improves for its debut run. Army of Angels really ought to win the 3:10 but dodgepot Nayyir usually carries my money (and doesn’t bring it back too often either) and probably will be again if i can find an excuse for its latest run. The 3:45 is a bookie benefit handicap and I tend to refrain form betting in them, but if I had to have a bet it would be on Arm Candy, purely because its a big price as it only has to improve around 5lbs.
The 4:20 is another race that guesswork is required in, but Seal Point is the best of those that has run and is 12/1 partly due to the unfashionable trainer he’s trained by. 12/1 looks an e/w steal though stepping back in trip may not be ideal. I doubt 12/1 will be available either but we will see. Proceedings are concluded with a 20 runner handicap that should ensure bookies go out on a high. I reluctantly agree with the racing post that Blues In The Night holds good claims and is probably a safe e/w bet with 4 places. However it is interesting that Fabrian is dropped back to 7f and it will be interesting to see what happens in the market with it.
Anyone else like to share their thoughts about the card and indeed any other card of a busy Saturday’s racing.October 27, 2006 at 23:18 #29587
Of course that should read GOOD LOOKING 2YO BASED CARD. Please excuse my incompetence.October 28, 2006 at 08:26 #29588
I started a thread about Comma after it was second at Newcastle last time suggesting it was one to keep an eye on. It was by far the best horse in that race in my opoinion, kicking 6 lengths clear at one stage and then tiring to get run out of things close home. Had she been asked for her effort later I’m confident she’d have won easily.
The favourite sets a pretty high standard, her Newbury form solid and her seemingly improved Ascot form very good. Not sure that can definetly be taken at face value though. Comma was also declared for the fillies listed race which Party won at Newbury last week but wwas taken out because of the ground. That gives us a bit of a clue about how good Stoute thinks she is, so I wouldn’t be taking her on at all. Infact, I think she’ll be a cracking ew bet against the favourite if she’s 5/1+.October 28, 2006 at 09:06 #29589
Talking of tales regarding the ground di you see Herecomestanley? Was withhdrawn becuase of soft ground in an 8 runner handicap because the ground was soft, and then bolted up on heavy ground the next day in a similar race. Very strange goings on.
Regarding Comma, what makes you think it won’t be stopping in the final furlong again? On the ratings she’s a heck of a lot to find too which puts me off.October 28, 2006 at 09:12 #29590
She was ridden too forcefully imo and will be much better being asked for her effort later. On the bare figures at Newcastle she has plenty to find. Not so much if you take the opinion she was value for winning by 4 lengths.
The amount she needs to find is made up for it in price.:biggrin:October 28, 2006 at 09:16 #29591
Looks like there’s only you and me with anything to say DJ:biggrin:October 28, 2006 at 09:20 #29592
Think everybody else is too busy putting their tweed jackets and red cords with yellow socks on.:biggrin:October 28, 2006 at 16:34 #29593LingfieldMember
- Total Posts 919
Quote: from trackside528 on 1:22 pm on Oct. 28, 2006[br]I wouldnt be surprised if Stoute has at least one winner in one of the maidens today, and I wouldnt be surprised if it is comma. The most interesting runner of the day for me at newmarket would be spanish moon, ill be very keen to see what that thing turns out to be like…
In the fillies listed, I’d be keen on a progressive sort (either Passage of Time, Hi Calypso or Tarteel)… im quite keen on the later 2, who are both open to a good deal more improvement imo…
Spanish Moon looked good though not well fancied in the market.<br>Passage Of Time also impressed though soft ground with the top getting kicked up accentuates winning margins.<br>Farcical h’cap with the first 5 home on the far side and the rest nowhere.<br>Find it hard to pick winners at end of season with the ground gone and many horses had enoughOctober 28, 2006 at 16:39 #29594
That "farcical handicap" was my only winner Lingfield so thanks for that!
Comma turned out to be a safe lay for me in the end. Don’t mention Arabian Gulf though :(October 28, 2006 at 17:37 #29595LingfieldMember
- Total Posts 919
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 5:39 pm on Oct. 28, 2006[br]That "farcical handicap" was my only winner Lingfield so thanks for that!
Comma turned out to be a safe lay for me in the end. Don’t mention Arabian Gulf though :(
<br>Ah well, <br>Well done to you with the h’cap.<br>The winner was not without its backers but those that didn’t go to the far side swiftly had no chance.October 29, 2006 at 09:16 #29596guskennedyMember
- Total Posts 759
Is anyone else having problems with yesterday’s Newmarket times? They certainly seemed to be splashing through the ground but the times recorded in the 10f race, the 8f handicap and the 8f two-year-old race suggest it was good ground with no "soft" in it.October 29, 2006 at 14:00 #29597The Market ManMember
- Total Posts 396
I too was surprised at the price of Spanish Moon as he had been reportably working very well on the gallops. Bred to get every inch of a mile and a half could make up into an interesting horse nxt season.October 29, 2006 at 16:27 #29598ArdrossMember
- Total Posts 98
His sister Spanish Sun of course won the Ribblesdale on her seasonal debut before going wrong in the Irish oaks.
Very impressive long striding animal – soon put the Godolphin animal in its pace. Cecil’s pair Passage of Time and Walking talking both ran as if better times are ahead at Warren Place.
Measured Tempo impressed me too – gorgeously bred – full sister to Anabaa Blue – three parts sister to Galileo
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