Newcastle Chases – 30/10/08

[robnorth]

The Northern jumping circuit moves on to Newcastle for Thursday and there are three chases on the card of variable quality.

1.30 2m 4f Beginners’ Chase

The strongest chasing form here belongs to THAT’S RHYTHM and if he reproduces his Hexham effort then he should take this. One minor reservation might be that the stable have not had a winner this season, though they have ‘hit the bar’ a few times.
Belon Gale is probably capable of improving on his form 40-odd lengths behind That’s Rhythm last time, but it’s unlikely he can turn the placings around.
The Shy Man finally steps up in distance and it will be interesting to see how he goes over the extra half mile. However, he still has a fair bit to find.
There’s a very interesting chasing debutant in Mill Side, a promising novice hurdler last season. Very much one to keep an eye on.
Another who seemed destined to go chasing fairly quickly is Role On who ran some fair races in handicap hurdles last season. Might find one or two too good here even if he takes to fences.
High Bird Humphrey would have a chance on Carlisle form, but I do wonder if he can reproduce that effort.

3.00 3m 0-85 Handicap Chase

A dire event big on numbers but low on ability.

This might just fall into the lap of the front-running LOST IN NORMANDY who ran a cracker against better company than this at Kelso recently. He should be able to dictate and if on form prove too good for this field.
Nelliedonethat has a couple of fair runs over fences and may be capable of running into a place.
Greenock dipped out early at Kelso, coming a cropper at an open ditch which catches a few out. On his Hexham form behind Letham Present he would have a shout here.
Six-year-old Smart Man might be interesting. A third behind Shulmin at Sedgefield is not pulling up trees but at least shows a glimmer of ability. He’s a winner over hurdles, so offers some hope.
Apart from those, letters and large number figure highly amongst the form of the remainder.

4.00 2m 4f 0-95 Handicap Chase

Another race high on numbers, although there’s perhaps a slightly higher level of ability than in the three-miler.
Divex the top weight has some respectable chase form but fitness has to be taken on trust after a 138 day lay-off.
Yankee Holiday drops to a much easier class. He’s been crying out for a while to be given an easier task. The one question I’d have though is whether this headstrong gelding will last home over this distance round here.
Seek The Truth performed well enough to win at Carlisle but is upped what looks a fairly harsh 9lbs for that.
Tully Cross mugged a couple of pensioners at Hexham and, for a reason known only to the handicapper, has been shunted up 9lbs for his ‘crime’. On his previous Hexham run off the lower mark he would seem held.
Buckstruther was one who struck me as likely to improve when graduating from hurdling to chasing. He comes to his second chase engagement after a lay-off and is worth noting as one to watch.
Fred Bojangals has shown ability and may go well from down the handicap, though I fear he is one destined to disappoint. Hall Of Flame has a squeak on winning form of two runs ago, but is another coming off a lay-off following a disappointing performance.
Scanning through these it’s very difficult to latch on to any credentials to be confident about. I’ll not be putting any money on anything here, but if pushed I’d give a chance to NICKY TAM who went well enough to three out behind Seek The Truth at Carlisle, and though he has 43 lengths to find it may be that less tough conditions and a race under his belt may favour him here. May reward a little each-way tickle….., not that I endorse betting each-way!
I can’t guarantee by any means that I’ve included the winner in that summary! It’s that sort of contest ……

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