New Bay

[follyhoog]

After really kicking myself for letting The tin man go off without a penny on it but the price of New Bay 1:50 Chantilly tommorow looks like a massive overly priced at 5/2 i cant see one negative about him

Ground: (tick)
Trip: Maybe he needs further but he has won at a mile so i cant see this a problem (tick)
Freshness: proved he goes well fresh (tick)
Course: (tick)

DARIYAN? beat him 1 and half lengths on heavy the others I’m not concerned about one bit IMO (tick)

Talk me out of it people

[The Alchemist]

Yeah ok. Well i think New Bay is a risk if she Ascot inspirations. I think Dariyan or My Dream Boat are good value. i have included new bay in a double though..just in case. very talented too.

[stevecaution]

I’ve backed New Bay for the Arc at 12/1 and am looking for a good show.

The trainer actually said he doesn’t want soft ground but the horse has won on it and I am a little surprised Andre Fabre has stated that he feels it is a negative today.

He went on to say that New Bay will need this race, so that tempers confidence.

A Shin Hikari is actually rated a pound better than New Bay on official ratings 123 to 122 but his form is pretty much on fast ground and I feel he may be vulnerable away from Asia on softer going.

Dariyan is a bit behind New Bay’s talent level I feel but he’s going to be rock hard fit here and that can help offset the deficit. He looks a sound each-way option at 4/1.

I hope New Bay at least goes close here and will be delighted if he wins. He is obviously being trained with the Arc in mind considering this quite late seasonal debut, so you just wonder how near to fitness he will be.

I’ll just watch today unless he hits 3/1, as I feel that would be tempter.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Well, New Bay was absolute garbage and A Shin Hikari absolutely slaughtered his field by ten lengths.

Andre Fabre said he was concerned about the ground and I don’t see what the 6/4F got out of today’s race, other than a damn good thrashing in 6th place.

The horse Erupt who has become very disappointing of late, was tailed off beaten a distance in a 9F race.

Today’s winner varies between 5/1 and 10/1 for The Arc now. He clearly goes on firm, good to firm and heavy, which is a versatility that will serve him well. 10/1 may look big for him.

Probably a race where many of the field ran way below par.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[LD73]

Take nothing away from the winner’s performance but I can’t take the form at anywhere near face value as too many rivals either failed to turn up or just ran shockers – however, if he does the same thing to whatever field turns up at Ascot in the POW then he is a legit player.

As a five year old this was only his 7th career start so you would have to wonder whether there are any soundness problems and the fact that he has never been asked to go further than 10f is unusual for a Japanese horse – add into the fact that better horses than him (his sire for one) have come over from Japan and have been beaten in the Arc itself makes me think that a best price of 10s for the Arc is very much on the short side. for a horse unproven at the trip.

It will be interesting to see if they look at other 10f races through the year like the Eclipse, Juddmonte, Irish Champion/Champion or will they head straight for the Prix Foy and then the Arc after Ascot?

[LostSoldier3]

New Bay carried his head on one side and was hanging throughout. You almost hope he was carrying a minor injury, otherwise his temperament will come into question from now on.

[apracing]

That was the winners twelth start in fact, six runs as a 3-y-old and five as a 4-y-old prior to today. Never put your trust in the Post database to have the correct information. My info comes from the France Galop site.

I can’t see any reason not to accept that form – the Prix Ganay first and second have reproduced that form and been left for dead, with numerous other Group race winners further behind. Try my standard test for wide margin winners and ask how you would react to the result if the winner had been a non runner. I’d suggest that a Ganay winner following up in the D’Ispahan would have got high praise and a prominent position in the Ascot market.

[follyhoog]

truly shocking run from New bay maybe it was the ground but the form book is saying he likes soft/heavy only time will tell but i reckon there something more than the ground with him i’m no trainer but if he was so concerned about the ground why run him run time out in a group one? although it looked weak interesting..

[LD73]

apracing wrote:

That was the winners twelth start in fact, six runs as a 3-y-old and five as a 4-y-old prior to today. Never put your trust in the Post database to have the correct information. My info comes from the France Galop site.

I can’t see any reason not to accept that form – the Prix Ganay first and second have reproduced that form and been left for dead, with numerous other Group race winners further behind. Try my standard test for wide margin winners and ask how you would react to the result if the winner had been a non runner. I’d suggest that a Ganay winner following up in the D’Ispahan would have got high praise and a prominent position in the Ascot market.

Fair play and my bad re Post DB, that will teach me to take it as gospel – yes the 2nd & 3rd have run to Ganay form (not a vintage renewal looking at the rest of the field imho) but overall they are pretty exposed at G1 level and New Bay has run a lifeless race compared to last year’s model. Take the winner out and the result would most likely not have had any ramifications on POW or Arc betting, I just think a bit more evidence is needed before the collective ‘we’ start hailing him as the next superstar.

To further my own caution, the Post’s report on the race lists the biggest G1 winning margins which shows barring a few obvious standout names that not many go on to become the superstars that their particular performance suggested they would. For one reason or another over half of them never won another race after their marque performance

Biggest Group 1 winning margins this millennium
Horse Distance Race Year
Well Armed 14 lengths Dubai World Cup 2009
Septimus 13 lengths Irish St Leger 2008
Hawk Wing 11 lengths Lockinge 2003
Frankel 11 lengths Queen Anne 2012
Quiff 11 lengths Yorkshire Oaks 2004
Order Of St George 11 lengths Irish St Leger 2015
Sea The Moon 11 lengths Deutsches Derby 2014
Harbinger 11 lengths King George 2010
A Shin Hikari 10 lengths Prix d’Ispahan 2016
Soldier Of Fortune 9 lengths Irish Derby 2007
Dream Ahead 9 lengths Middle Park 2010
Sinndar 9 lengths Irish Derby 2000
Homecoming Queen 9 lengths 1,000 Guineas 2012
Spinning Queen 9 lengths Sun Chariot 2006

[stevecaution]

apracing wrote:

That was the winners twelth start in fact, six runs as a 3-y-old and five as a 4-y-old prior to today. Never put your trust in the Post database to have the correct information. My info comes from the France Galop site.

I can’t see any reason not to accept that form – the Prix Ganay first and second have reproduced that form and been left for dead, with numerous other Group race winners further behind. Try my standard test for wide margin winners and ask how you would react to the result if the winner had been a non runner. I’d suggest that a Ganay winner following up in the D’Ispahan would have got high praise and a prominent position in the Ascot market.

The ATR website was worse, they showed A Shin Hikari as only having two previous starts, both wins, in their racecard today. Their database also only showed that, with nothing going further back in time.

The casual punter is being poorly served by these people and it’s time someone like Channel 4 racing was taking them to task about this live on air and embarrassing them into doing something about it.

Instead of that we get the usual sycophantic rubbish week in week out.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Nathan Hughes]

Sporting Life had Qemah down as making her debut in the Boussac on Arc day despite running twice previously.
I’d rather they didn’t bother if they are only doing part form

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[cormack15]

How do you win a Middle Park by nine lengths!

[Author]

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