- This topic has 49 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
tbh Glad’, I don’t think they’ll switch Sir Gino now – whatever happens to The Hill. He’s just too good over fences.
Value Is EverythingAlso Sir Gino has lost his novice status over fences having run, so no point switching.
State Man a long way below form, but even so… To do that to horses like Winter Fog and Fils D’Oudaries – beating them 30+ lengths… It’s a 170+ performance by Brighterdaysahead. She jumped a lot better today.
Value Is EverythingPut whatever numbers you like Ginger, I don’t trust that race one bit as regards to a reliable form line for the Champion Hurdle when State Man gets beat that far and gets passed by a 66-1 shot. ;o)
If that CH then everyone would be going daft ….
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
You can take State Man entirely out of the race when rating it, Mike.
Or as the winner was always going a fast pace it is possible to rate her performance purely on time.
Value Is EverythingState Man is now going to be on a massive retreival mission in the Irish Champion Hurdle and if he blows out again you surely couldn’t run in the Champion and if Anzadam doesn’t live up to his loft reputation then the Donnelly’s could potentially be without a runner in the Champion unless Sir Geno is rerouted.
We have had all sorts of permutations of who and what runs where if x, y and z happens this season and I am not sure we have seen the end of it between now and Champion Hurdle day. The only thing that you can be certain of is that nothing is for certain.
Imagine if CH doesn’t make it …. Would look wide open
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“If that CH then everyone would be going daft ….”
A 100% CH wouldn’t beat a normal State Man 30 lengths plus :o)
Can’t you get it that the race can be rated without State Man, Mike?
Value Is EverythingPlenty of the Mullins’ fancied horses are not running to form.
The more I know the less I understand.
“Can’t you get it that the race can be rated without State Man, Mike?”
Yes. I just won’t believe extreme numbers. ;o)
As amazing a visual performance as it was, you simply can’t take it at face value when evaluating the form of the race.
The 2nd (Winter Fog) and 4th (Fils d’Oudairies – who was beaten 1.5L by State Man today compared to the 22L last year when he actually made the running!) were clearly never put in a position to try to actually win and were just ridden to pick up pieces, one was the pacemaker (an excellent job by King of Kingsfield to be fair), Mystical Power (a G1 & G2 novice winner last season) has totally spat the dummy out on racing as he has now been beaten a total of 111L in his last two races.
And then we have State Man – he has clearly massively underperformed and Townend’s comment of “I was in trouble from an early stage. He was never really travelling” is an understatement to say the least.
All of these factors have come together and combined with her getting a very positive forward thinking ride (also greatly appreciating not having to do the donkey work herself) have resulted in this performance.
I would put this in a similar category as Apple’s Jade 41L G1 win at Aintree, a freak one off race that should be taken with a rather large pinch of salt.
Sounds similar to what he said about Lossiemouth.
The more I know the less I understand.
That is where sectional times come in, Mike.
Take State Man and Mystical Power completely out of the race.
eg. Once sectionals are known:
If Brighterdaysahead’s closing sectionals are the same as her early fractionals then we know her performance is as good as she could do today.However for handicapping specialists: If the others closing sectionals are quicker than their early fractions then that can be allowed for by rating Brighterdaysahead as less than a 30 lengths winner. The amount “less” would depend on how much the “others” did not run equal fractions. (How much they were disadvantaged by the pace). I suspect the others did allow the winner too much rope… But with Winter Fog dropped out last in order to take advantage if they went too quick… I doubt if they allowed much.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.