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Gordon Elliott – "The long-term plan is the three-miler at Cheltenham. Obviously good ground is an unknown for him, but I think he should be OK."
Gordon Elliott – "The long-term plan is the three-miler at Cheltenham. Obviously good ground is an unknown for him, but I think he should be OK."
Ah, I did see that as a potential sticking point, but thought he’d probably take the Neptune route.
Thanks for the heads up though.
Gordon Elliott – "The long-term plan is the three-miler at Cheltenham. Obviously good ground is an unknown for him, but I think he should be OK."
Ah, I did see that as a potential sticking point, but thought he’d probably take the Neptune route.
Thanks for the heads up though.
That would make tons of sense re-evaluating the prices now
Nicky Henderson has at last found a race with the right ground for Trozulon. I treid 6 different major bookmakers to get a decent ew bet at 50/1 on him for for this without luck and ended up having to go through another bookie to get the bets on with yet another bookie
David Bass rides as BG is off to Ireland. He’s a late developer but has a touch of class and might just prove good enough to take his place in this race. It would appear this is where he will go if he turns out to be good enough and not the Supreme as was first thought.
Be interesting to see what price he is on Monday which he should do easily if he has improved at all during his time off. Not the end of the world if he loses
) Chin Up!!!Nicky Henderson does have a shocking record in this race though HGM.
Don’t care Nicky Henderson will win every race at the fesitval
I’ve made plenty this season backing them at huge odds and laying them off again when they piss up.
Only horses I care about are Sprinter Sacre and either Grandouet or Spirit Son beating Hurricane fly preferably the former. The rest could fall at the first for all I care as long as they don’t get hurt. Be nice if one or two did win as I still stand to win a bit more if they do but I can’t lose which is the important thing
Fist, was meant tongue-in-cheek
I’ve just been going through the trends I made 2 years ago for the Supreme, Neptune and RSA. The Supreme trends I made up – what a crock of $h!t€. Just terrible.
The Neptune trends however have held up fairly well and the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2011, bought from Weatherby’s and written by Paul Jones (@sportspunter1) has made for very interesting reading (again). Was rather annoyed that I hadn’t made a tentative selection for me to follow so had a good luck at the race and the trends.
Well I’ve had a big look and my conclusion is that there about 25 contenders for it and you need your head tested if you’re thinking about having a heavy bet on anything. Fingal Bay will get beaten, but it’s just ridiculous how many prospects there are, and even how many unraced horses there are that trade at shortish prices.
Broadback Bob is too old to win this but he has some incredible form. Look no further if he runs in the Albert Bartlett.
Sous Le Cieux ticks an awful lot of boxes though. Trainer, form, race, sire.
Never been a big fan of the race and I think the only winner I backed may have been Mikael D’Haguenet and I’m not even sure about that.
It’s a weird race, you’d expect it to farm top class 3 mile chasers in the future but you need to go back years to find one yet Istabraq Hardy Eustace and Danoli all brilliant 2 mile hurdlers have won it as have French Holly and Peddler’s Cross.
I just look at the race and shrug and have no preconceived ideas about which of those entered is likely to win. To be honest it’s full of the name rings a bell horses to me.
Must admit I was taken in by Sous Le Cieux but he took a real tanking last time and looked decidedly soft giving up way too easy for my liking.
Haven’t even looked at Nicky’s Simonsig as I was told not to bother he would win nothing.
Race is a non event to me unless this horse today turns out to be something special I wont be having another bet in the race as things stand.
Never been a big fan of the race and I think the only winner I backed may have been Mikael D’Haguenet and I’m not even sure about that.
It’s a weird race, you’d expect it to farm top class 3 mile chasers in the future but you need to go back years to find one yet Istabraq Hardy Eustace and Danoli all brilliant 2 mile hurdlers have won it as have French Holly and Peddler’s Cross.
I just look at the race and shrug and have no preconceived ideas about which of those entered is likely to win. To be honest it’s full of the name rings a bell horses to me.
Must admit I was taken in by Sous Le Cieux but he took a real tanking last time and looked decidedly soft giving up way too easy for my liking.
Haven’t even looked at Nicky’s Simonsig as I was told not to bother he would win nothing.
Race is a non event to me unless this horse today turns out to be something special I wont be having another bet in the race as things stand.
It’s strange that, Fist, because I also was amazed when I found that of the past 22 runnings, only 13 of the winners and runner-ups actually contested a chase at the Cheltenham Festival later on in their careers. Very strange race indeed.
Never been a big fan of the race and I think the only winner I backed may have been Mikael D’Haguenet and I’m not even sure about that.
It’s a weird race, you’d expect it to farm top class 3 mile chasers in the future but you need to go back years to find one yet Istabraq Hardy Eustace and Danoli all brilliant 2 mile hurdlers have won it as have French Holly and Peddler’s Cross.
I just look at the race and shrug and have no preconceived ideas about which of those entered is likely to win. To be honest it’s full of the name rings a bell horses to me.
Must admit I was taken in by Sous Le Cieux but he took a real tanking last time and looked decidedly soft giving up way too easy for my liking.
Haven’t even looked at Nicky’s Simonsig as I was told not to bother he would win nothing.
Race is a non event to me unless this horse today turns out to be something special I wont be having another bet in the race as things stand.
It’s strange that, Fist, because I also was amazed when I found that of the past 22 runnings, only 13 of the winners and runner-ups actually contested a chase at the Cheltenham Festival later on in their careers. Very strange race indeed.
Honestly i backed Hardy Eustace each way when it won, and had Nicanor to beat Denman but both bets were on the day. I like the race, but finding an angle this far in advance…well i find it much harder than the other races.
Also – why no 2 1/2 mile level weights race for older horses when there is one for novices ? All graded level weights races have corresponding novice and older horse events except this.
Seems as though if you remain over hurdles after this race, you either step up or back in trip or drop into handicaps.
Yes it seems a little strange to me too. They’d have to extend the World Hurdle to Gold Cup distance and then bring in a hurdle over the Ryanair distance. Personally I’m all for it. Too many horses fall inbetween and they’ll either skip the Festival or be basically unseen in either the CH or the WH. I want to see the best horses running at the Festival over their best distances.
I’m not so sure we need a Grade 1 2m4f level weights hurdle.
I don’t like the Ryanair I think it detracts from what the fesitival stands for.
Desppite Imperial Commander winning it in general it attracts horses who simply aren’t good enough to win a QMCC or a Gold Cup. It will never have Champion Standing at the festival and neither would a 2m4f race over hurdles.
I would imagine the main reason they don’t have one is the way horses are bred. They are either fast enough to win at 2m or they stay 3m
Lets say we had a 2m4f race right now. Oscar Whisky would pull out of the World Hurdle and Hurricane Fly might just run in them both
Not enough class horses to go round that’s why they stick to handicaps.
Well the Ryanair has taken a very long time to get established as a proper Grade 1. Fondmort beating Lacdoudal, Thisthatandtother beating Fondmort, Taranis beating Our Vic on a bad day and Billyvoddan. Yes, I agree, this is not top notch stuff.
But the last 4 years have started to turn the race into a better race and this year we’re going to get the mother of competitive Grade 1s.
Rubi Light, Kauto Stone, Riverside Theatre, Medermit, maybe Poquelin. These are very good horses who otherwise probably wouldn’t be seen at the Festival. They’d have to settle for getting taken off their feet, lumping top weights in 20-runner handicaps or not staying in the Gold Cup.
And for horses like Albertas Run, Noble Prince, Great Endeavour who would all run at the Festival anyway, it’s a chance for them to be competitive rather than finishing out the back in the Gold Cup or Queen Mum.
If we had a 2m 5f hurdle and the World Hurdle were run over 3m 2f, we’d probably have Oscar Whisky, Celestial Halo, Thousand Stars, So Young, Mikael d’Haguenet, Zaidpour, Brampour and Carlito Brigante all taking each other on.
As it is, Celestial Halo probably won’t run at the Festival, Brampour will get taken off his feet in the Champion, So Young and Zaidpour might not turn up and Carlito Brigante would make bugger all impact in the World Hurdle.
The 2m 4f hurdle at Aintree is just such a flat, sharp trip that it almost runs like 2m round Cheltenham anyway.
I don’t like the Ryanair I think it detracts from what the fesitival stands for.
Why ?! And what does it stand for ?
Fondmort at Cheltenham was a beautiful sight and everything that the festival is – horse racing fans watching a class act do what it was bred to do.
I would imagine the main reason they don’t have one is the way horses are bred. They are either fast enough to win at 2m or they stay 3m
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This is nuts. There are plenty of 2 1/2 mile hurdle races because…wait for it…many horses aren’t quick enough over 2 and don’t stay 3 miles. 1/2 mile is some distance.
There are Group 1’s on the flat at 5f, 6f, 7f, 1m, 1m2f, 1m4f, 1m6f.
And it just doesn’t make sense to have a Grade 1 for Novices but no corresponding race for the seniors.
Oscar Whisky, Celestial Halo, Thousand Stars, So Young, Mikael d’Haguenet, Zaidpour, Brampour and Carlito Brigante
That’s a quality race and i think there’d be other entries.
Yeah it’s not a bad field but you just turned the World Hurdle into a non event by taking Oscar’s Whisky out and with Spirit Songone you’d have some job trying to talk the owner of Thousand Stars not to go for the Champion Hurdle.
These races are premier races and you simply don’t want to be enticing runners to go elsewhere and that’s why they will never do it.
You can expect the market for this race on it’s head this week. Broadbackbob goes on a fact finding mission on Saturday to see if he can handle the course and if he wins well I imagine Simonsig will switch back to the Supreme.
Darlan has been confirmed as a def for the Betfair and if he is badly beaten he won’t be going to Cheltehnam leaving very little left for NH to play with.
God knows why I’m doing this because the race looks like being a nightmare. Probably that’s why I’m so determined to find the winner.
There are some very strong trends in the Neptune, one of the best races for trends of the entire year. You occasionally get the weird freak winner that doesn’t meet any of the trends and last year we had that weird freak winner in First Lieutenant, winning by a short head from Rock on Ruby, a perfect trends horse & because Oscars Well, another perfect trends horse, slipped after jumping the last. The one before him was Massini’s Maguire, winning by a bloody neck from Tidal Bay who meets every trend perfectly.
Between 1 and 5 runs over hurdles that season.
5 or 6 years old.
Finished in the top 2 LTO.
Won at least 50% of their starts over hurdles that season.
Had a start on or after January 15th.
Won on seasonal hurdling debut.
Didn’t run within 2 weeks of the Festival.
Finished 1st or 2nd on all starts over hurdles that season.
Had run in a pattern race or once-raced.
Posted a RPR of 145+ (excluding once-raced horses).
Must have posted a personal best RPR last time out.
Did not win the Challow Hurdle (The race often run on soft/heavy ground with a long straight places emphasis on stamina, not speed. The last 13 Challow Hurdle winners all failed in the Neptune, Denman included. Challow Hurdle winners go chasing – Neptune winners very rarely do)Of the last 13 winners, excluding the aforementioned couple of gits, the only winner that broke any of these trends was French Holly, a 7 year old and also ran 1lb below his personal best LTO.
Nicky Henderson was an unbelievably bad record in the race with something like 0-21 and only 3 in the top 10. Duc de Regniere, Aigle D’or, Mad Max, Minella Class, Finian’s Rainbow in the past 5 odd runnings. Not one in the top 4.
There are also a few sires to avoid when it comes to Cheltenham and by chance, 5 of the contenders are by this sire – Beneficial. Yes, he is the sire of Cooldine, but that’s the only win for him at the Cheltenham Festival from 35 odd attempts. He has about 4 wins at Cheltenham from roughly 75 runners. Not good.
The contenders;
Fingal Bay – Challow Hurdle winner, going straight to the Festival without a run since December 31st.
Simonsig – Henderson, looks like running in the Supreme anyway.
Make Your Mark – sired by Beneficial.
Boston Bob – 7 years old.
Monksland – sired by Beneficial and trained by Meade. Urgh.
Sous Le Cieux – finished 3rd at Christmas, but he also has an awful lot of positives that I’ll come to later on.
Ballyrock – no negatives
Cotton Mill – no negatives
Terminal – no negatives
It’s A Gimme – beaten on hurdling debut, sired by Beneficial
Captain Conan – Henderson
Broadback Bob – 7 years old, trained by Henderson
Galileo’s Choice – trained by Weld
Molotof – Henderson
Vesper Bell – beaten on hurdling debut, sired by Beneficial
Mono Man – beaten on hurdling debut, trained by Henderson
Knight Pass – I just don’t think he’s good enough
Which makes my list considerably shorter;
Sous Le Cieux – sired by Robin Des Champs, sire of Sir Des Champs & Quevega. Also won the Royal Bond, a fantastic trial for the Neptune that Istabraq & Hardy Eustace both won en route too. Has already posted a RPR of 151, a rating better than any winner since 2000 had posted prior to the Festival, Mikael d’Haguenet excepted. He’s also French-bred and trained by Willie Mullins. An awful lot to like, but will he run in this or the Supreme? Hope to see him line up in the Deloitte next. Posting a personal best rating there would surely give him the victory.
Ballyrock – flattered to get as close to Fingal Bay as he did & the reality is that he’s not good enough. He’s posted a RPR of 144 because of his proximity to Fingal Bay in the Challow. A false rating.
Cotton Mill – Despite winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle hasn’t posted a rating higher than 137 and he won’t be good enough.
Terminal – An interesting debut the other week, if not spectacular and will hopefully line up in the Deloitte next. Also French-bred. Will be entered for all 3 novice hurdles apparently.
I do like French bred horses in this race. Single-figure priced French-bred runners have a 0710122F3 record since 1998. One of the 2s belongs to Karabak who finished behind another FR-bred horse in Mikael d’Haguenet.
FR-bred single-figured priced runners since 1998 who posted a RPR of 145+ prior to the Festival (once-raced horses excluded, of which there are none) finished 01122; Oa Baldixe (148), Nicanor (146), Mikael d’Haguenet (159), Karabak (156) & Reve De Sivola (150).
With Mullins having Midnight Game for the Supreme, I’m hoping he doesn’t feel the need to run another as I’d love to see Sous le Cieux go for this. He has a near perfect profile. Entries will be published on February 2nd which might be able to make things a little easier for me, but I very much doubt it.
I should also note that there are several horses without quotes for the Neptune despite them being shortish prices on Betfair. The entries should at least help me with those.
Zarks: Excellent studying there, makes a very good case. Sadly I have backed Mr Hendersons SIMONSIG
I will have to cover with yours once the old NRNB kicks in
Zarks, Clutching at straws because i have backed two of the beneficials but what distances are his winners? Ie what percentage were over 2m4?
And were the winners all hurdlers?
Also I have a strong liking for national hunt bred horses with pointing background. I think they have a great record. Trouble is you get a lot of them in the staying novice races. I would prefer to narrow the race down and avoid french breds usually. Just how I tend to approach the race and had a fair few winners and placers with it.
Like your work though, fascinating stuff.
Now i am concerned about My beneficials including the meade one but again i clutch to the reason that atleast he has won the neptune in recent years with nicanor so there is hope. MONKSLAND!!!
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