- This topic has 17 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 1 month ago by
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Hello all,
I’m trying to think about the negatives that could sway you not to back a horse.And I’m also wondering about the negatives on the types of ground:
All-weather
GrassAnd finally the type of race:
Jumps
FlatRegards
GROUNDisKEYDraw
Jockey Booking
Appearance (sweating up, jig joggy, bolting etc.)
Ground
DistanceThanks Irish Stamp and Seabird and thanks for the welcome too.
Do you think it’s easier to pick a winner from a shorter race 5f-7f
or a longer run race 2 miles and up?I don’t think you can generalize like that.
Probably easier to pick the winner of a six-runner conditions sprint rather than the the Cesarewitch.
But the Stewards’ Cup would be a different matter.
Colin
Personally I’d prefer to try and pick the winner of a 2m+ race over a 5-7f race every time.
Certain courses aside, you don’t have to factor in the draw bias and there’s less chance of trouble in running.
Lee
yes, I see what you mean wilsonl,
I’ve found I seem to pick the favourites in fields of 6-9 over 2 miles +.
- Total Posts 43
In no particular order
1. Trip
2. Ground
3. Class of opposition/race
4. Handicap mark could be too high
5. Might need a recent race, i.e. doesn’t go well fresh
6. Might need to be fresh (doesn’t take racing well)
7. Track – might not handle undulating and/or tight tracks. Especially true for gross horses.
8. Pace of race – might need holding up off strong pace, so oppose in small fields
9. Might need uncontested lead and sulks if taken on in front
10. Track orientation, best going left/right handed.
11. Stable formAn example of that would be Whiskey Creek in the first at Epsom yesterday, where the Racing Post Analysis simply states "Whiskey Creek failed to handle the track." (Some horses just don’t like running downhill.) It will be interesting seeing how he performs when he is back on a flat or stiff course.
- Total Posts 43
Pasco and Mad Max at Cheltenham would be two that fit under the no. 7 rule GROUNDisKEY. Huge animals that possibly hurt themselves such is the reverberation caused when they are asked to go downhill.
12. A horse might’ve shown reluctance in the past, or signs of going sour (if he’s needed pushing along early in a race, or if he’s refused to go past when presented with a winning opportunity)
13. Horses that find little/nothing off the bridle (Clopf is probably the worst offender currently in training)
14. Headgear (eg. Comply Or Die)
15. Jockey – avoid tearaway front runners or horses that need strong handling being ridden by inexperienced/amateur jockeys.
16. Horses with high knee action – avoid backing these on undulating courses especially on fast ground
17. Price. Horses who’ve been over-rated on the visual evidence of their most recent form. One frequently sees horses sent off artificially short for beating trees impressively on their last outing. When faced with stiffer opposition they often come undone.
18. Hurdles/fences. Some beasts can be just stones superior at one or the other.
19. An expansion of No. 6 – some horses can only produce their form for 5 or 6 runs a season, before their form tails off. Look to oppose horses at the end of the National Hunt season who’ve shown previously they can’t reproduce their best at this time of year.Some people place great store in trends. But unless there’s a logical reason behind the trend then they’re often worthless.
I heard once on Channel 4 racing that a horse with top weight will have a better chance than the rest of the field in heavy ground, could that be something todo with momentum?
- Total Posts 43
I heard once on Channel 4 racing that a horse with top weight will have a better chance than the rest of the field in heavy ground, could that be something todo with momentum?
No, that would be something to do with the fact that, for the most part, Channel 4’s presenters are clueless halfwits.
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