National Stakes 2018

[jackh1092]

Anthony Van Dyck vs Quorto vs Dark Vision

Christmas + Madhmoom look to be going to the Champion Juvenile the day before!

AVD wasn’t breathtaking LTO out 7f.

Quorto looked very decent but the form hasn’t worked out great.

Dark Vision did well to win from where he was, but questions have been raised about the form of his race too with Too Darn Hot beating them much more convincingly.

Mega interesting renewal!

Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

[stevecaution]

Anthony Van Dyck is 10/11 Fav with Paddy Power but William Hill are offering 13/8 on the O’Brien colt.

Quorto is 15/8 with William Hill but Paddy Power are going 9/4 and they disagree again with Dark Vision who is 3’s with Billy Hilly yet 5/1 with Paddy Power.

I certainly can’t take Anthony Van Dyck at odds on, so it becomes a question of whether Quorto or Dark Vision represent some value.

Too Darn Hot seemed to establish a higher level of form in dismissing Dark Vision’s sparring partners with a clear margin of greater superiority over those who had faced Johnston’s colt earlier. Too Darn Hot isn’t here though and Dark Vision has won all three of his races, albeit that the form isn’t holding up great. I might have given him a go at 5/1 here, just because it’s a decent price but the reason I wasn’t on him last time was because of the Johnston factor and it concerns me somewhat that he came from almost last place at Goodwood, to pounce late and that can be a tough trick to keep pulling off.

Quorto was a cosy winner last time but the form hasn’t worked out well since. I got the impression a mile might help him in time. Quorto is narrowly the highest rated on RPR’s here but I don’t really trust that notion and it’s quite close in the ratings between the leading protagonists anyway.

Christmas has been progressing and gave Anthony Van Dyck a wee fright last time. Just one point behind the favourite on Racing Post Ratings, Christmas is 12/1, while his stablemate is odds-on.

All of the first three in the betting looked like strong finishers last time out, so could something pinch it from the front?

In the end I felt that Quorto had the most scope here and I also thought he might be the least likely to be outpaced in the early stages. He seemed a bit green still last time and I reckon he may be the one to stay on best past Christmas in the closing stages, enhancing his Guineas and Derby prospects in the process.

Quorto 9/4 (or better if available when more firms price the race up)

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[ham]

Wont be betting but AVD was winning when alot werent, 13/8 is fair enough, id expect a massive step forward, cant have quorto or DV, id possibly take a chance on madhmoon at bigger prices

[jackh1092]

Steve and Ham, id hazard a guess Christmas and Madhmoon are heading to the G2 on the Saturday going by the market!? Obviously their priced in this bigger due to the 3 at the head of the market but neither of them have won a G2 so I reckon that’ll be their race.

Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

[stevecaution]

Jack, those two are entered in both races. Paddy Power seem more keen on the idea that they go in the Group 2 race, hence the bigger odds.

I felt that they would run a pacemaker for Anthony Van Dyck, as a slow race would be his enemy I feel. Christmas seemed to set it up nicely last time but perhaps they want to try to get him a Group win in easier company.

Quorto was cut by Paddy Power to 7/4, so Hills are actually bigger on him now.

If Dark Vision goes to Doncaster for the Champagne, this may end up a virtual match race and I’ll be happy enough having 9/4.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Pants]

I’ll be watching closely where Madhmoon goes, he beat a decent sort of AOB’s in Syndey Opera House comfortably first time out, and is one I’ll be following.

[stevecaution]

In the Moyglare I couldn’t take Skitter Scatter as 9/2 Fav because she’s pretty exposed and her win last time has had some holes punched into it already. So Perfect and Just Wonderful were two fillies I felt might progress so I had an early fiver on each for the Guineas. They both flopped next time out but at least they have managed to get back on target to some extent.

Just Wonderful looked quite decent last time but not quite Group 1 class and this race is a furlong shorter. On the whole though she seems progressive and this isn’t the best renewal of the Moyglare. Having backed Just Wonderful last time, I had to stay with her here at 6/1 and hopefully she finishes most strongly this time. Hopefully Peach Tree runs well earlier at the meeting to bolster the form.

Just Wonderful 6/1

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Author]

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