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Bach Protector (6.35pm Kilbeggan: 2m4f novices’ chase)
worth keeping an eye on purely to see if Paul Roche (fourth handler) can eventually get a handicap tune from him now that he has been sent chasing. Has shown a modicum of hurdling ability at Downpatrick & Tramore and was sent chasing at Tramore on latest start (trip far too short). Obviously showed ability at some stage as he started favourite for a bumper in July 2010 for Rebecca Curtis on his racecourse bow. Someone believes in him for having been sold by Robert Widger as a foal he joined Rebecca Curtis for just one run (knocked down to Jonjo O’Neill for £6,000 as a 4yo), returned to R Widger to win his maiden point and following three runs for G Elliott is now with Paul Roche.
He may not have beaten much in his sole point outing but he won well and was given a decent rating of 88+. I am often reluctant to discard a previous winner because, very often, they will recover their form at some stage or they show a particular preference for one strand of the game. It’s also not inconceivable that they improve with age. His disappointing bumper run was attributed to being “backward and green”.
Dam, Cappamore Girl (1994 by Commanche Run) won 13f flat race and a hurdle and bumper over 2.5miles when trained by W Mullins in 1999/2000 and Bach Protector is her fourth foal. Two of her three previous foals have run: Molly Rodgers (2002 Presenting mare) was a distant third in a bumper but of little account over hurdles for Sean Hennessy but her 2004 Moscow Society g, Enter Paradise, has been a multiple point-to-point winner in the UK (no great shakes admittedly!). It is a measure of the high opinion that connections had of Bach Protector that the mare has two unraced colts from the same stallion (Bach) born in 2007 & 2009. Best horse in the immediate family is Some Present (2003 Presenting g) out of a half-sister to Cappamore Girl. Some Present, trained by Tom Mullins, has very good form in Grade One bumpers and hurdles. This is a family that would have close connections to the Marnane family in Tipperary now excelling at both training (David) and pinhooking (Con).
Not inconceivable this horse will gradually improve enough to be a winning chaser in time.
Court In Session (2005 g Court Cave) trained by Martin Keighley
Runs: 7th September 2011 5.40pm Uttoxeter (g-f) 2m 4-6yo bumper – I Popham (3)
I attended the point-to-point held in Kilsheelan, County Tipperary last October and wasn’t particularly taken with division two of the 5&6yo maiden won by (then) 5yo Lord Of Appeal gelding,
Jim Will Fix It
, especially when my later research showed that he had had three hopeless runs in previous months including two unsighted runs over hurdles on the racecourse. Not a lot to recommend him, right?
Wrong! He won his next two starts in bumpers (20/1 & 8/1) and has since collected twice over hurdles, all from just ten starts, in other words “a proper horse”. This is all by way of introduction to the horse that finished second in that maiden,
Court In Session
, who was beaten by 8L but who jumped noticeably to his right throughout the race on a left-handed track.
Court In Session
has subsequently won no less than four points and all ridden by “The Fish Man”, Jamie Codd, who came very close to winning this season’s championship. He won his maiden in October and followed up in three winners’ events in April and May all within the space of 19 days for his handler Liam Kenny. He has a definite preference for good ground and this was stressed every time he won. There were various plans to run in bumpers and beginners’ chases (said to be a lovely jumper) but he was ultimately sold at Doncaster in May for £30,000 and is now with Martin Keighley. It’s probably wise to see him running early in the new season to take advantage of the decent ground. Incidentally one of his winning times was so spectacular that the respected point-to-point observer questioned the measurement of the distance. Time will tell!
A Goffs Landrover purchase as a 4yo in 2009 for just €9,000 and, as one would expect, he has a modest pedigree being the first foal of an unraced Jurado mare who was a half-sister to a staying chaser in Fordstown, and a 2m-2m2f winning hurdler, Mrs Mayhew.
His sire, Court Cave (an unraced brother to Juddmonte’s G1 Beat Hollow), stands in Ireland as a national hunt stallion and
Court In Session
is from his first crop. What catches my eye is that his best horse over jumps to date (11 winners (132 starters) from 8 horses) is Champion Court winner of a Grade 2 Cheltenham novice hurdle and 4th in the Albert Bartlett this year and is trained by none other than Martin Keighley. Gerry Hogan (agent) gave £130,000 for Champion Court after he won a bumper in May 2010 and the same agent bagged Court In Session for Keighley in May 2011.
I tried and failed to find decent follow-up collateral form from the four races that Court In Session has won so while that leaves a little doubt he did win his three winners’ events by an aggregate of 18L in a fashion described as “easily”, “kept on well” and “always in command”.
There will most likely be a strong favourite in this race tomorrow with McCoy riding Thespis of Icaria an easy winner of a Hereford bumper last month but assuming Court In Session is around 4/1 or better he could be a decent betting proposition for a few reasons including an effective 10lb pull from the favourite, the horse that was second to the favourite at Hereford was rated 15lbs inferior to CIS on Irish ratings, the Champion Court factor and also a note in the Racing Post that the favourite got a little hot last time (he was a reject from the Stoute yard).
P.S. The Bowe horse proved a little disappointing but, as a friend pointed out, sometimes the undulations of Kilbeggan can make life difficult for a novice. Will remain of high enough interest.
LOVE THIS THREAD!!!!!
Another P2P fan on here then Royal Academy – thought that Court In Session may find it all happening a bit quick and Flemensgael shaped like a non-stayer first time out at Maralin, would be interested in him E/W if I could get 25’s or so about him.
After posting last evening I discovered that Keighley has a websire and whilst he was expecting a big run from CIS he was also bemoaning his recent run of "seconditis" so the result ran to recent form.
Popham decided to go on after a very slow first mile (time well below standard) and probably needed to make it a much stronger test of stamina having won four 3m points. Echoes of True Blue my very first nomination on this thread.
He was a shortish 5/2-11/4 all day so I wouldn’t consider this any value against a long odds on shot and these point-winning debutants can occasionally be overlooked in the market and that’s when to pounce (ideally it will be a level two or three trainer taking on Nichols or Henderson or suchlike). He’s a fine strapping horse and will win plenty over hurdles and will probably stay on the bumper circuit for another effort or two.
@ Irish Stamp: Flemensgael was well spotted by you at Maralin. Predominantly flat family and a dam who couldn’t win over hurdles from 12 starts. One could argue equally it was a pretty modest performance but he changed hands afterwards to join Vaughan for Bill Bellew. The non-runners undid you. But did you know a little more than you posted?
I wish!
Yeah he ran well enough – I’m actually at Maralin in November and was surprised given the times they run that people consider it a speed track, certainly wouldn’t be top of my list of speed tracks and it does appear (on times at least) to be a genuine 3 miles.
Unlucky with Court In Session, I’m sure he’ll be winning more than his share over hurdles in time but it looks like he caught a tartar today.
The greatest example of P2P winners being overlooked in the market (and I still have no idea how this got beat) was the 33/1 that Bet365 and Hills went about Mount Benbulben at Down Royal in Feb, the same applies to UK pointers too mind, just harder to get a grip on the form.
Pride Of The Artic-2005 g Definite Article (Peter Fahey)
11th September: Listowel (probable going: soft) 3.30pm 5yo+ 3m maiden hurdle – Mr M Fahey (5)
I have often remarked and observed that many winning pointers very often win on the track in the same season they are successful between the flags and Pride Of The Artic is a case in point, even if you have to forgive him for the grammatically-challenged name! Easy winner of a Limavady 5yo maiden last October it was thought that “this nice horse” would be sold or turn up in a maiden hurdle but, instead, almost 6 months later he ran in a 2m3f Naas (yielding) bumper and put some decent rivals in their place at odds of 16/1.
Fahey was quoted immediately afterwards as saying: “The (soft) ground was a bit of a worry as he’d prefer it better and it looked a good race. At home he works like a good horse and showed that today and stayed at it well. I thought he might have been sold but we decided to wait for good ground.”
It was indeed a good race in my view as he beat Charles Byrne’s favourite, Shrapnel (a half-brother to Weapons Amnesty) into second place and running into fifth was a lovely mare, Andunowhat, whom I am particularly sweet on.
He was given one subsequent spin in a Cork (good) maiden hurdle over three miles in April but things went badly askew for connections when he no race, was struggling throughout and pulled up four from home at a shortish 6/1. He has been ridden in all races to date by the trainer’s nephew James.
He possesses a nice pedigree and these wins are particularly rewarding for the Faheys as Seamus Fahey trained the dam, Tricias Pride (where’s the apostrophe??!!) to win two bumpers and a hurdle in 1999/2000 ridden by none other than today’s trainer. Tricias Pride has had two other runners both of which were placed in bumpers and over hurdles but Pride Of The Artic is her first winner. They have two full-brothers and a full-sister at home yet to race.
Sunday is very much a “retrieval of reputation” mission after his Cork escapades. In different circumstances I could possibly fancy a previously pulled up runner if he had shown some spark but I need some concrete evidence of hurdling ability before pursuing a greater interest here. I will keep an eye on the market for some hints but, for now, he’s best watched. On reflection the soft ground may also be a negative.
My reflective moment proved accurate as Pride Of The Artic was withdrawn when the rains fell.
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After
Paudi The Punter
won a 4yo maiden (Portion Control fell two out here and went on to be placed in two good bumpers for Eddie O’Grady-dead since) in Inchydoney, Co. Cork (good) in May 2010, his trainer, Brian Hassett, expressed the view afterwards that he might be good enough to contest a Galway bumper, especially as he hadn’t been fully wound up. As it transpired we had to wait until March of this year before he reappeared in a “winners’ of one” at The Pigeons (yielding) and, somewhat unusually for his age (5), managed to beat his elders quite comfortably. This looked a modest contest beforehand but it’s very encouraging to note that the mare,Stephen mahon’s Mare Of Milan, who was a six-lengths 2nd, recently won a Galway bumper and the beaten favourite, 9yo Optimum Force, subsequently won two hunter chases for Dessie Hughes.
Two further encouragements to add him to my list were favourable comparisons by the trainer as “easily the best horse I’ve had since Native Scout” (high praise indeed!) and a strong recommendation from a noted pointing enthusiast that “he clearly has an amount of speed…and could go a long way at any discipline.”
Incidentally, a good friend of mine is the extremely proud owner of Native Scout’s half-sister, Lady Orla (1998 by Satco), and she has produced Cheltenham bumper runner Ericht and the Willie Mullins’-winning Celtic Folklore in her most recent crops to race. A story that will run and run…………….
Paudi The Punter has very much a stout flat pedigree being by Classic Cliché out of a Carroll House mare that won twice over 7f & 8f for Paddy Prendergast in 2001 (The granddam was placed in a Queen Mary at Ascot). She was tried four times over hurdles and although displaying some potential when she failed to win she was quickly retired to stud. The hurdling promise had some influence on her owners as she has been bred entirely to national hunt stallions since albeit her sire is now a jumps influence. Her first two foals by Definite Article and Bob’s Return both disappointed and Paudi The Punter remains the big hope to improve the dam’s page especially as her subsequent two foals were fillies.
Paudi The Punter was withdrawn from the Brightwells April sale and is now owned by Barry O’Connell and is under the tutelage of Conor O’Dwyer presumably after being purchased privately.
We come to “Paudi” a little late in the day as he has already contested 3 bumpers on ground ranging from good-yielding to good-firm and, as a leading market fancy, has finished 4th (2m1f), 2nd (2m4f) and 5th (2m4f) at Punchestown, Gowran & Roscommon in May, June & July so he has been expensive to follow but clearly has ability.
14th September 2011 – 5.45pm Listowel 2m4f bumper (soft-heavy) M P “Mikey” Fogarty (3)
From three entries this week connections have chosen the trip of 2m4f over 2m, not surprising when you review his form.
Paudi’s initial bumper run saw him outpaced behind a rare Jim Bolger bumper runner, Morning Ireland, in May (the form of this 2m1f bumper is satisfactory but my horse didn’t have the finishing pace necessary) followed by a very decent run behind Minella Humour (poor in a Galway winners’ event but a Roscommon maiden hurdle winner since) in a 2.5m Gowran contest. Apart from the winner and Paudi The Punter nothing else from this race has run in another bumper although a stable companion of the winner, Minella Minstrel, ran a race full of promise to be third and hasn’t been seen since.
A third run at Roscommon over 20f, for which he started 6/4F, was disappointing especially as the winner was ridden by a “statue” who was unable to move on board for fear of falling off! Nothing has happened since to suggest this was much of a race although one expects that Paudi The Punter is better than this.I do think that the Gowran run was promising albeit it was on the best ground he has encountered in his 3 bumper starts and the Roscommon run could be forgiven even though he never showed with a favourite’s chance. 2m4f bumpers are hardly the most prestigious contests to win and I am a little surprised that connections are persevering in national hunt flat races. Although I have a lingering suspicion that this race won’t take much winning I find the trainer on a 24 runner losing streak going back to 1st July, he has only trained one winner from 30 runners in September and is 0/7 at Listowel over the past 5 years. I do think the favourite might be vulnerable to a front-runner once again and if I were giving instructions I’d probably tell Fogarty to make all. I’m not recommending him as a selection unless he goes off at an ignored, silly price which is unlikely. His future will be jumping and one cannot easily forget the
Native Scout
comparison.
Paudi the Punter
was declared a non runner earlier with a vet’s certificate produced for lameness.
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I introduced
Run With The Wind
on 26th August last when declared for a 1m6f 50-70 handicap at Killarney and suggested it might be a pipe-opener for a tilt at a Listowel hurdle the following month. The run suggested he needed the outing after a six-month break and he finished 26L 7th of 10 behind the “other” Binocular, trained by Pat Flynn for a guy in my local town. It’s likely that the prevailing soft ground also told against him. The front three have run since and only Mutiska (2nd for John Hayden) upheld the form by filling the same spot in a 2m2f handicap (Ulster Cesarewitch) run at Down Royal carrying 5lbs extra.
15th September 2011 – 3.55pm 1m6f 3yo+ 50-80 handicap (soft-heavy) S H James (5)
Half my original prediction was true except
Run With The Wind’s
Listowel target is a slightly higher-grade flat handicap tomorrow rather than a hurdle race. With Danny Mullins unable to do the 8-07, Sam James, claiming 5lbs, gets the ride. Hourigan remains out of form (26 consecutive losers in 55 days) and the ground is also likely to be a negative once again. He still holds maiden hurdle entries for here on Friday and at Ballinrobe on Monday next. Interesting to cogitate on the trainer’s current deliberations with these current entries.
Run With The Wind
is now a lowly-rated 59 and I do believe he is very well in indeed if and when he puts his best foot forward. There have been numerous future winners from the flat races he has contested including horses rated in the 70’s, 80’s and even 90’s.
Invariably I will get many calls wrong here throughout the season but I can’t see this fellow being suited by the conditions tomorrow. Whether he gets his ground on the track from now on will be doubtful and maybe Hourigan will head to Dundalk once again where he had a promising run last winter. I’ll monitor the market throughout the day and make a final call on him thereafter.
As I said before, getting his conditions in a hurdle race with the trainer in form is when I will be most interested.
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Slowly but surely some promising names are beginning to crop up on my horsetracker but there was no similar winner to last year’s "The Shepherd King" amongst the Listowel entries this year. When the jumps season starts properly towards the end of the month the declarations will come thick and fast. And the new pointing season starts in two weeks time also!
Posted on 27th August 2011:
Viaduct Joey-2006 g Traditionally (Terence O’Brien) P4-1 (NH 288) (Point rating 87)
Galway 27th August 2011: 2m2f 4&5yo maiden hurdle @ 3.55pmModest flat pedigree by a son of Mr Prospector (standing in France) out of a mare who failed to shine in two starts over hurdles and is a half-brother to a Tipperary sprint winner. Cost his present owner €13,000 as a yearling and was unsold at Brightwells last December following his recent pointing success.
He won his point-to-point at Dromahane last November on good ground and the clear intention afterwards from his trainer was to sell at a subsequent sale (unsold £42,000 Brightwells). This hasn’t worked out so Viaduct Joey has been campaigned in Ireland by the same connections. The 4yo maiden he won has produced four subsequent point winners a couple of whom have since been placed in a bumper and maiden hurdle.
Update: The second horse joined Gary Moore in a private sale and was third in a novice hurdle on his most recent run (Racing Post rating 106) and the third, Benefficient, trained by Debbie Hartnett, was a good third in a Cork bumper (RPR 105) on his only subsequent start last March. He has since joined Tony martin at a cost of €52,000. Given my comments (below) about King Of The Refs it’s hardly coincidence that Martin was attracted to a runner from this maiden. This gives a stronger look to the particular P2P maiden.
Historically, this race has been a good guide of future ability with Harpsy Cord, Allterrain, Grane Alainn, Flaming Charlie and Sizing Mexico all having managed to win on the track since the 2007 renewal. It also produced something of a “talking horse” in Tony Martin’s King Of The Refs in 2009. (His sire, Zagreb, gets lots of point winners but they find it hard to translate that success to the track.)
Best of three subsequent runs on the track has been a promising 2nd/25 in a Navan 2m maiden hurdle last February (heavy). His second start saw him short of pace in a 2m2f bumper whilst his last start was 19L 8th/18 in a 2m1f maiden hurdle at Killarney in May (good-yielding). The form of both hurdle runs is promising with four and three subsequent winners produced subsequently. There has been market support for him on all three runs.
Update: The win of Run With The Wind today brings to FIVE the number of winners behind Viaduct Joey in his first start including wins in maiden hurdles for the 7th, 11th, 13th and 20th home that day. Also, Trabajo’s win here in a maiden hurdle at Listowel last Sunday gives a further sheen to Viaduct Joey’s run at Killarney. (He was 8th, Trabajo 8L further back in 11th).
Given his 100+ day absence I would like to think that this will be his third run to get a mark and it will be “game on!” thereafter. In some ways his second placing was a disaster as his handicap mark will suffer accordingly so, therefore, if there is money for him it could be significant but he’s not for me today.
16th September 2011: 4.50pm 2m4f 5yo maiden hurdle (soft to heavy) Tom Doyle
Viaduct Joey’s
run at Galway went exactly to plan and he was a running on 6th and the jockey’s whip, dare I say, was used as a feather duster! The form has already been franked by the horse that finished 8th – Beir Bua won a handicap hurdle here off 97 on Tuesday!
You will notice that connections of
Viaduct Joey
decided to discover what mark he has been awarded by putting him into a handicap hurdle next Monday at Ballinrobe and 102 was the answer-not bad at all so why run him tomorrow in a maiden hurdle?
I believe ground and trip will be ideal tomorrow and I would speculate that the answer to my question may be apparent at 5pm tomorrow.
P.S. Don’t you just love greedy layers pushing out horses to 100/1+? It tends to compensate for a few unticked boxes and corresponds to my view on "silly prices" being offered. I didn’t expect my first decent winner for a National Hunt Bulletin to be winning on the flat!
hello royalacademy2 i have been reading your musings for the last month or so and i just had to sign up to say thank you very much.i had just a few euro on your 33/1 shot the other day but today i ploughed in at 8/1 because i was so confident in you i will say it again thanks very much keep up the great work
As I expected connections of Viaduct Joey anticipated his win today and now must decide if he can follow up quickly at Ballinrobe on Monday with a 5lb mandatory penalty. He’ll be thrown in off 107. Tom Doyle is a real classy jockey and I would always look for him to deliver.
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If you were looking for a potential "jumps" broodmare what better family to earmark than that of the wonderful Black Trix who won many races for J.R. “Bunny” Cox about twenty years ago and was one of a number of horses from the same family that kept the trainer’s name and, subsequently his daughter’s, in lights for years (Atone, Splendour, Music Be Magic etc.). Joe Murphy, who trains in Fethard, Co. Tipperary, bought Murrurundi (1998 m by Old Vic out of Black Trix) for €27,000 as an untried 4yo in 2002 and she repaid his vision by winning two hurdle races on summer ground for his stud-owning connections in 2004. She wasn’t over-raced and retired to stud at the end of that season with an official mark of 109. Murrurundi is a half-sister to three other winners including the afore-mentioned Splendour who was a very useful 2m-2m4f chaser.
The horse we are interested in is
Drumlister
, the first foal of Murrurundi, who is a gelded son of Luso born in 2006. Sold by his breeder as a foal, he returned an immediate dividend when making €34,000 to the bid of BBA Ireland on behalf of well-known Northern-Irish businessman, Wilson Dennison, who “pinhooks” winning pointers with Colin McKeever as his training sidekick.
After four previous attempts, Drumlister eventually got his act together last November for McKeever and Dennison when winning a Maralin 4yo 3m maiden (yielding-soft) by 8L under the peerless Derek O’Connor. Best of those that ran behind was Commanchewardance (fell 5 from home) who won his maiden and winners event and has been tried once in a bumper (finished well down in the Fairyhouse championship bumper).
Drumlister
was subsequently bought privately by Arthur Moore.
Historically, this hasn’t been a bad maiden producing plenty of horses that win at their own level on the track and mostly in the UK (Our Hero, Kilvergan Boy, Johnnyofcourse and Hermoso). The winner of the second division of this contest in 2010, Bob Lewis, is showing some promise after running a nice third for handler Chris Down in a maiden hurdle at Chepstow last spring.
Now all this background material and my interest in
Drumlister
may prove entirely academic as he ran three times on the track in maiden hurdles last spring over distances from 16f-20f and all on soft ground and has been beaten by an aggregate of 182L. Needless to say I am reluctant to scratch him until I am convinced that he is useless.
Collateral form is of dubious value given that he finished so far behind and the comments attributed to his three runs are “in rear of mid.div.” and “never a factor”. However his second run was not entirely without promise: the race included good horses like Princeton Plains and Leah Claire and whereas Drumlister was a 30L 13th/20, there were subsequent wins for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th and while difficult to track his run on replay I do suspect he stayed on well enough in the closing stages.
17th September 2011: Listowel 4.55pm 2m 4yo+ 80-102 opportunity handicap hurdle (soft-heavy) G Malone (4)
Obviously I have no idea if this fellow is any good but it is interesting to see him quickly into a low-grade handicap hurdle off just 88. He is also in an ever lower grade 2m handicap hurdle (<95) at Ballinrobe on Monday.
Arthur Moore’s stable is a shadow of it’s heyday (he still managed a 2011 Cheltenham winner) but he has trained two winners in late August including an improving lowly handicapper at Downpatrick. The jockey, however, is a complete rookie, and has had just six rides in public and that’s only a half-dozen more than me!
As I like to predict the future I would like to see money for this horse tomorrow and for his inexperienced pilot to finish close to the winner without threatening and then our card will be marked. Taking the jockey’s ability on trust will require you to get quite decent odds if he is fancied. And, of course, he just may be no good but I have a sneaky suspicion about him as he is very well bred.
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Thank you trying; glad to see you winning a few bob.
Just like to repeat what trying said and thank you RA for a lovely winner,got a few quid on at 13/2 and was never in doubt,keep up the good work
Warrants A Name (James McAuley)
21st September 2011: Perth (good-soft) 2m4f110yds 4yo+ maiden hurdle (Ian McCarthy-5lbs)
I introduced this fellow last July when he ran on the track for the first time in a 2m Worcester (bumper-good) and he ran a decent race to finish second, beaten 5L, at 12/1. He ran about a bit under pressure but finished well clear of the third. It was a good call by connections to cross the Irish Sea and promised more to come. He was given a decent rating of 119 by the Racing Post for this effort.
Subsequently I see that the third, Cock Of The Rock (beaten 18L), finished second in a 3m Worcester novice hurdle (RPR 116) and the 4th home, The Big Freeze (beaten 20L) collected a modest Newton Abbot bumper (RPR 104) giving the race a touch of reliability.Admittedly, it was hard at the time to read his pointing win (good ground in an end-of-season maiden) but his half-brother, Beneficial Spirit, has been performing well and, on evidence to date on the track, he is no forlorn hope to win a few races.
I advised you in July that
Warrants A Name
ran at Galway in a 2m bumper and ran quite well to finish 8th/15 (beaten 14.5L) in a race in which he made most of the running and threatened to play a hand in the finish only to weaken 2f from home. He turned out 3 days later in another Ballybrit bumper (2m2f good) and ran a similar sort of race to be 25L 4th behind Cairdin.
These bumpers have already proven to be of quite a high standard with 3 subsequent winners coming from each race. (First run (8th): wins for 1st, 2nd and 13th (a WP Mullins beaten favourite); second run (4th): wins for 2nd, 3rd and 6th)Warrants A Name
ran last at Bellewstwon and made his debut over hurdles in a 3m maiden hurdle. Paul Carberry was booked and his final placing was a disappointing 8th, beaten almost 100L. A review of the race suggests it’s not as bad as it sounds as he made the running to 4 out and it looked to me he didn’t stay 3m. The second has since won a Downpatrick maiden hurdle but the 4th, 5th and 6th horses have run modestly in subsequent hurdling events.
Ordinarily a trip to the UK following his good run there last July would be of interest to me. But I feel in coming up against both Hard To Swallow (see below) and Mart lane that he is meeting potentially superior rivals. I would guess that the 2.5m will be his trip but he encounters some soft ground tomorrow and this may tell against him. In summary, I think there will be easier opportunities for him in the future.
Hard To Swallow (Martin Keighley)
21st September 2011: Perth (good-soft) 2m4f110yds 4yo+ maiden hurdle (AP McCoy)
I am still shocked I missed this horse winning his bumper last March at Ffos las. My notes were redolent with his latent talent and to tell you that he started at 8/1 brings tears to my eyes. He ticked all the boxes with pedigree and a mighty maiden win at Ballindenisk. I feel I have lost "ownership" of him due to this missed opportunity. I can still hear the course commentator’s final words echoing in my ears as Hard To Swallow passed the winning post:
“One you’ll hear plenty about in the future.”
He’s probably going to start odds-on under McCoy but a trainer in form, "Shark" Hanlon, will put it up to him with his Stowaway gelding, Mart Lane, who won a Leopardstown bumper last January. Both market fancies are running over hurdles for the first time and I sincerely hope they don’t flop to allow Warrants A Name to win this race. They both look superior to McAuley’s horse.
Perversely, if Hard To Swallow wins tomorrow I will discard him whereas if he fails to land the odds I will take comfort that future events may be balm for my pain. Even allowing for my contrary approach I would not be getting involved at short odds unless every box was ticked and that aint the case (yet) with Hard To Swallow’s hurdling ability.
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I hope to post my third runner later; one that I am most interested in tomorrow at Downpatrick.
Dr Tommy (Kieran Purcell)
21st September 2011: Downpatrick (good) 2m2f 4yo+ maiden hurdle (Tom Doyle)
You can agonise about giving non-winners 5lbs today and his run at Clonmel last time out was labelled as "disappointing" by the Racing Post but to me Dr Tommy ticks a lot of boxes today and, although it’s a tired old cliche, he does look a decent call to be a least placed. (7/1 freely available altho’ I note a few sneaky punters taking anything higher overnight).
Theory Aside: It’s stupid marking everyone’s card by "grabbing" 12/1 for all of two bloody euro overnight. Far cleverer to have a little paitence and pick up lots of small "big" odds as the day progesses. One may have seen that Drumlister ran on Monday at Ballinrobe on Monday last following Listowel’s abandonment where he finished stone last. (Arthur Moore even trained a winner on the day.) The SP record will note him drifting to 20/1 but I noticed that someone "allowed" him to drift to 50/1 on the machine and just before the off took everything down to 25’s. That’s how to do your business!
The ground will suit Dr Tommy today and I believe his run last time was eye-catching because he was in the van throughout and only yielded in the final two furlongs. As I’ve said before it is very difficult to win over hurdles first time so a prominent run should never be discounted. I am comparing his recent runs to how Smokey Joe Joe was campaigned by Purcell and there are some telling similarities. I would venture that Downpatrick represents a slight drop in class also as the highest rated hurdler here is 105 compared to 110 in his last race. The one slight negaitive to temper enthusiasm is the fact that the three runners since from the Clonmel event have failed to shine.
Perversely, if Hard To Swallow wins tomorrow I will discard him whereas if he fails to land the odds I will take comfort that future events may be balm for my pain. Even allowing for my contrary approach I would not be getting involved at short odds unless every box was ticked and that aint the case (yet) with Hard To Swallow’s hurdling ability.
RoyalAcademy2
Hard to Swallow was beaten by a hurdling newcomer in Mart Lane whose trainer thinks he has a Cheltenham horse on his hands. The winner sluiced up and his trainer is thinking Leopardstown novice events short term and Cheltenham long term.
Paddock inspection suggested to me that Hard To Swallow has a bit of strengthening still to do. He’s the raw material but just needs to be honed into the finished product and I’d keep the faith with him.
Incidentally the winning trainer thinks he has potential a Gold Cup horse in Hidden Cyclone, so that one’s chasing debut is eagerly awaited.
Rob
Thanks Rob. Please feel free to contribute at any time.
Dr Tommy
disappointed me a little yesterday but I can exclusively reveal why he was beaten. I backed him!
I reviewed a few of his races subsequently and whereas I can’t be certain due to poor video quality I do think that he has been running with the choke out in the early stages of his races on his last few runs. I think if he can settle better he should be capable of winning. Interesting to see how the trainer will tackle this with maybe cheekpieces helping. He made the running at Clonmel but was restrained yesterday and it will pose a dilemma as to how to ride him next time.
I should also mention the email sent by a friend pointing out that Downpatrick is very much a track with its severe undulations that horses can dislike intensely.
Hard To Swallow
caught a tartar in the shape "Shark’s" Mart Lane. Keighley intentionally put HTS away after his bumper win as he needed to fill out (well-spotted by Rob) and watching him race I couldn’t help thinking he has the build of a chaser. Apparently he jumped fences superbly at home on his only try. No disgrace to lose yesterday and he’s back on my agenda. Probably tired too after the long lay-off.
Warrant’s A Name
mightn’t have expected to run into two such opponents running for less than two grand in Scotland but he cut his own throat making the pace and was ultimately very disappointing. He ran about a lot jumping his hurdles too.
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The day job kept me from reporting on two runners today and I feared the worst checking the results tonight.
I would have easily predicted the gamble that materialised on JP’s
Micks
(Trained by Christy Roche and ridden by Alan Crowe) at Fairyhouse as he was thrown in off 95 and he had promised to win on the track since his win at Leadington last January. He was bred by a friend of mine out of a nice solid mare and when JP came knocking with his cheque book they didn’t need to hold a board meeting to accept the cash! He finished only 7th at 9/2 (10’s in the morning) so we get another chance to play and possibly saved a few quid today.
I nominated
Court In Session
on 7th September for his bumper bow and he finished a nice second to the "good thing" Thespis Of Icaria. Sent hurdling earlier today for the first time at Perth I would have urged caution backing him until I had proof that he could hurdle fluently. Connections had no such qualms and he seemed to be strongly fancied in the market. No-one would have predicted that he would pull up! With Hard To Swallow’s demise yesterday and this disaster today it will have left Martin Keighley cursing his luck. His next blog should be informative although you wouldn’t blame him for not writing it up any time soon!
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I see a few horses with entries tomorrow including
Run With The Wind
. If I can find the time I will be back to update.
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