national bets

[vikingflagship]

so come on then whove you bet on upto now, ive just been and put a bet on slim pickings

vf

[moehat]

Comply or Die [25/1] Chelsea Harbour[33/1]D’Argent[40/1]MonMome[33/1]..Ardaghey[100/1 with a run].

[vikingflagship]

i like the look of chelsea harbour also

vf

[Aragorn]

So do I….

[Marsh]

4 Horses

Cloudy Lane
Butlers Cabin
King Johns Castle
Black Apalachi

I don’t expect much.

[Pat123]

I have Bewleys Berry at 20-1 & 16-1 and Mon Mome at 33-1.

[GhostofTheFellow]

Bewleys Berry is my main bet on at 20/1..this horse is bred to win a Grand National ooozing in the stuff!

One or two others im looking at as small bets!!

[wakeman]

Hi all, my three for the National are in no particular order.

I will keep the first simple SIMON.

As it is the Masters next week here’s hoping that BUTLERS CABIN signs for the correct score and wins the Green Jacket.

Finally i have gone for KNOWHERE because that is where it will finish so a lot of thought gone into it

Whatever your picks BE LUCKY.

Cheers.

Adrian.

[cheltenhamhill]

There are some absolute set in stone stats that we must take heed of and allow us to narrow down the Grand National field before we consider form and going preferences of the runners.

Just one winner of the Grand National has never won at 3 miles or more so every horse you consider must have won over 3 miles plus.

Weight is obviously a big factor and the most weight carried to victory was Red Rum carrying 11-6. The way the weights are this year there is a fair chance we could get an 11 stone winner so I am going to rule out anything above 11-2 as nothing in the last 20 years has managed that feat.

Horses don’t win the Grand National if they younger than 8 or older than 12 but most winners are 9,10 or 11. I will allow horses that are 8 to 12 but extra credit is given to the 9, 10 and 11 year olds.

Horses need to have had between 4-6 runs in the season if the stats are to be believed so lightly/heavily trained horses need to be ruled out.

Every winner has had a run within the last 50 days so the rusty horses are ruled out.

Although most horses are given a fairly light prep race before the big one they must at least run respectably in that so we can rule out anything that didn’t finish in the first seven on their latest run.

I have entered these stats into http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/g … l-form.php which gives me the following horses:

Cloudy Lane
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
D’argent
L’ami
Kelami
Idle Talk

I think the winner will definitely come from that list.

Idle Talk’s win over 3m+ was in poor company and £17,000 is usually the cut off point for smallest chase win so we can rule that one out.

Let’s look at who is left

Cloudy Lane

Deserves to be favourite and is obviously well in at the weights having won twice since the weights came out. Stamina has to be taken on trust as he has failed both times he has run over marathon distances but there were excuses at Fairyhouse last season as he was considered over the top by then. Decent jumper and possible winner but 5/1 is extremely short and in my opinion he is unbackable because of that price.
Comply Or Die

Won by a wide margin over a trip within three furlongs of the Grand National trip so certainly has the stamina for this. He is a classy individual who has had problems (was pulled up in three of six starts) but he seems back to his best and because of those problems we probably still haven’t seen the best of him. Has only fallen once in his career but yet to face fences like this, he is a very likely winner if getting a clear round, looks highly promising. Only negative is poor record of horses in the National when wearing headgear.

Snowy Morning

Has won over 3m but doesn’t look like a great stayer and although possibly well handicapped he has disappointed on his most recent start when a beaten odds on favourite and probably likes the ground softer. Can’t have it and will be surprised if it places.

D’Argent

Has plenty of stamina and seems to go on any ground. He is a decent jumper but four of his five chase wins have come at Warwick so maybe he just prefers it there and doesn’t look fantastically handicapped. Another with the head gear on too.

L’Ami

Stayed on well recently at Cheltenham and completed the race last year but was well beaten. Carries less weight this time and will probably get round but doesn’t quite stay this trip. Will probably come about 7th or 8th.

Kelami

Another who ran in the race last year (pulled up) but still retains plenty of ability and a marathon trip on goodish ground would suit. Hard to win with but a decent bet to place at the price.

Grand National Bets

I think Comply or Die is going to take all the beating and the only negative is the wearing of blinkers. I will be having a decent sized bet on Comply or Die and also a place interest in Kelami.

Away from the stats I will also be backing Slim Pickings to place as he came third in the race last year and has been trained for this all season. Should be able to bag a place at ok place odds.

[zome]

L’ami and Snowy Morning for me.

E/W on Naunton Brook and Iron Man.

[Peter Poston’s Ghost]

Bewlay’s Berry-a bold run almost guaranteed and decent e/w chance.

Black Appalachi-past winner of large field competetive chase and now on a nice mark after coming down the handicap some. A "job" horse?

Knowhere-big price (on BF) for a classy runner from an in-form stable.

Good luck to all horses and jockeys. Come back safely.

[vikingflagship]

from my national statistic listing bewleys berry stands out

vf

[Kalidor]

Butler’s Cabin and Mckelvey for me.

[crizzy]

Comply or Die and D’argent for me…..

[doyley]

Hello,

FUNDAMENTALIST done me out of a very, very good pick up by beating Inglis Drever over hurdles in 2004. He owes me!

So, I availed myself of 66/1…

Others: D’ARGENT, if he gets up tomorrow with his happy head on!

MON MOME, another horse that appears to be continually depressed, but hopefully Happy Head attached, may put in a good run!

I will be watching thru alcohol drenched eyes in the West Tip Stand.

regards,

doyley

[clivex]

Initial thoughts…but still thinking this one over

Dont like blinkers in this race. So will probably swerve Dargent and Comply

Chelsea Harbour doesnt appear to have been a terrific jumper and might need softer ground.

Cloudy Bay is just a bit too short with the stamina doubt. Would need at least 8/1

God knows why Butlers cabin is fancied…. Mr appointment too…last run was awful

Simon i like but is he suited to the fences?

Cant get a grip with Slim pickings and Hedgehunter ( a horse ive always liked) at 12?

Bewleys Berry….

Well…im hardly connected to the racing insiders of this world but have a line to this stable and they are very upbeat. I like the fact that hes been over the fences too. Worry is the last run….

[/code]

[vikingflagship]

simon was enjoying himself last year till he fell at valentines 2nd time round my main concern is his weight 11st 7lb

i like slim pickings maybe its coz i like the name

vf

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