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This looks like a very competitive, if not quite top class, renewal. There are alot of fillies that have been knocking on the door at the top level. Could this be Rainbow View’s day? Heaven Sent has been performing well all year. Can Katiyra bounce back from a below par effort at the Curragh? Any opinions guys?
Dar Re Mi edges it for me but Reggane looks very interesting if she turns up.
Can’t have Rainbow View and Midday is a bigger danger IMO.
Frankie Dettori is on Spacious so he won’t be on Dar Ri Me.
Yes, just saw that. Had been wondering if he might have been lined up for Rainbow View but clearly not!
J
For the price, Barshiba would be a nice gamble for me, clearly progressing and getting better with each ride or even High Heeled, High Heeled is ground dependant but this ground should suit her.
my points system
139 midday
135 heaven sent
132 high heeled
129 barshiba
127 katiya
127 rainbow view
123 spacious
115 moneycantbuymelove
110 nashmiah
102 saphiras firewill back midday win
and high heeled ewThis was going to be an easy race for me, as I was going to put a big bet on Reggane.
Without her, I have to think, so God Help Us, I’m going to make my mind up after watching the Morning Line on Saturday.
- Total Posts 17716
Middday having finished 2nd in the Okas is automatic favourite for this.
Perhaps she deserves to be but I have my doubts.Sariska reportedy improved bundle after the Oaks so much so her trainer and jockey were not wondering ifshe would win or not but debating about how far she would win.
That leads me to think the Actual Oaks for isn’t great and gives me reason to look elsewhere. Plus no matter how you look at it ground or no ground Midday ran very poorly in Ireland.
Katiyra is a favourite of mines but was so far off the mark last time I can’t see her being quite ready for this and she may need another run before she’s up to winning in this class.
Rainbow View was the apple of John Gosden’s eye but she just keeps losing and following her has cost some punters a small fortune.
What I can’t understand is why on earth is she so short (4/1) for this.
If you watch the Falmouth Stakes she gets first run on Heaven sent when both are throwing down their challenges to Goldikova. She must be at least 3 lengths in front of SMS’s filly. Heaven sent takes off and cuts her down like she’s standing still and finishes ad while she faild to catch the winer she finished 3/4 length in front of Rainbow View.
All season John Gosden has been saying Rainbow View is coming to herself but she’s had 4 runs and hasn’t quite done that but being a filly that can change rapidly especially at this time of the year.
As far as Heaven Sent is concerned she’s 6 years old and you wouldn’t expect her to suddenly improve she did mange to reverse placing with Spacious last time.
It’s not that I expect her to show massive imrovement that swings me towards her it’s the fact she has been picked out as working very well on the gallops and is said to come on a bit since her last run.
If that is the case and I’m sure it is I can see no reason why she shouldn’t beat Rainbow View and Spacious again.
Not 100% confident by any means but the way SMS’s horses are running she must have an excellent chance of winning this.
At 7/1 she is great ew value IMO
Yeah i like Katiyra but her last preformance was dissapointing.
If you can forgive her that 8/1 is a very good price…
Of the rest…well RV is very disappointing and i may look to lay her for a place against her elders
Rainbow View promises to to better at ten furlongs Fist and will probably get her ground (Good or softer) for the first time this season. Thats why she is so short. On form she doesn’t have much to find to be in the shake up in this race they are mainly group three fillies its not a strong looking group one. Midday is the one with the best form but it depends how highly you rate the Oaks form as you point out Fist and whether you think she’s a fast ground filly and / or a twelve furlong filly.
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With the ground and the distance tailor-made,Rainbow View ought to win this convincingly.
As a 2yo, she always looked a filly who’d need further than a mile eventually, and her Guineas run did nothing to dispel that view. She didn’t stay in the Oaks, but certainly ran well enough in the circumstances to suggest she’ll turn round the form with Midday over this distance.
Nothing wrong with her 2 subsequent runs either, if you accept that 1m isn’t her distance, and her trainer thinks she ran the race of her life in the Falmouth, considering the circumstances. Once again, she should turn round the form with Heaven Sent with this extra 2f being much more in her favour, and 9/2 doesn’t look any too skinny, given the relative price of horses she should beat comfortably at this distance.I am going to play a reverese forecast with the Cheveley Park fillies…they have shown they usually finish close together (handy for a forecast) and although they are probably G2 fillies, I am struggling to find a genuine G1 3yo in the field.
They could easily be 1st and 2nd and should pay 40/1+Frankie is riding well just now and i’d expect another solid effort from Spacious @ 7/1.
This looks likely to revolve around how much rain they get before the race. If forcasts are acurate. With heavy rain before racing. It could be good-soft, maybe softer by Nassau time.
If the forcast is inacurate (again) and the rain fails to materialise it could be on the firm side. Times were pretty fast today.
If there is soft in the title it may be against Midday who ran poorly on heavy in Ireland. Though she may act on good-soft, we don’t know yet. From memory sire Oasis Dream and dam-sire Kingmambo were both sound surface performers. Moneycantbuymelove ran two mediocre races on her first two starts on soft ground before improving on a firm surface. Should improve for the trip though.
Katiyra should like the going but ran disappointingly on reappearance, despite the going in her favour. Well backed too which suggests fitness was not a problem. I backed her last year in the Oaks and she did not seem to like an undulating course.
Saphire’s Fire, possibly best on a sound surface but not good enough. Nasmiah does act on soft, but is not up to this standard. Clive won’t be dancing tomorrow.
Had 10/1 ante-post Rainbow View in the 1000
. Her very best has been achieved with some give. Running on again in the Falmouth which suggests further may suit, especially now she’s better behaved. Was behind Heaven Sent there. The Stoute filly ran well in the Nassau last term but that was a slowly run race. Not certain to stay if the ground softens and we get a true test. I would imagine with front runner Barshiba in the field it will be truly run, she has been rejuvinated at 12 furlongs of late and stands little chance in a sprint. Spacious is unlikely to get her own way in front this time. Possibly flattered by those two runs, but could yet improve at this trip, by Nayef.My main bet though is High Heeled. Taken the chance of rain getting to Sussex in time. She’s best with some give, not far behind Midday in the Oaks and going best of all two out. Runs really well on soft too. Can’t see why she’s 12/1. I have her as having a better chance than Katiyra and Heaven Sent.
My prices for good-soft:
Midday 4/1, Rainbow View 9/2, Spacious 13/2, High Heeled 7/1, Heaven Sent 17/2, Katiyra 17/2, Moneycantbuymelove 10/1, Barshiba 22/1, Saphire’s Fire 100/1, Nasmiah 400/1.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
The ground looks like being good so hopfully Heaven Sent will get the trip ok. She won over 9f this season and was beaten a very short distance in this last year so the trip really shouldn’t be too big a problem.
One point I would make is Ghanaati pretty much destroyed Rainbow View and co this season but she herslf looked pretty ordinary when beaten by Rip Van Winkle and Paco Boy. I couldn’t back any 3yo filly with great confidence against it’s elders this season.
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