My Punting Year 2012

[Pacoboy]

Wednesday Jan 11th 2012 – Kempton 1615 (5f Hcap)

Model Output

Brian Sprout (3.15), Porthgwidden Beach (6.85), Lady Royal Oak (12.71), Deveze (14.35), Pharoh Jake (15.41), Cara Carmela (15.73), Lois Lane (15.78), Papageno (16.00), Lisselton Cross (16.21), Avonvalley (27.34), Pavement Games (28.05).

Lots of races to look at for tomorrow and it’s late so will be kept short and hopefully sweet. This race as bad as it comes in terms of quality. A return to this C&D should suit both BRIAN SPROUT and PORTHWIDDEN BEACH and they will be the two to look at depending on prices available tomorrow.

CONCLUSION:

Will be looking for 7/2+ on BRIAN SPROUT and 6s for PORTHWIDDEN BEACH.

Wednesday Jan 11th 2012 – Kempton 1715 (5f Hcap)

Model Output

Volcanic Dust (7.77), Earlsmedic (7.79), Cadeaux Pearl (8.01), Diamond Charlie (8.28), Titus Gent (10.09), West Coast Dream (14.28), Island Legend (15.99), Best Trip (16.13), Desert Strike (16.59), Falasteen (17.90), Sir Geoffrey (18.17), Kylladdie (30.96).

Masses of pace in this race which surely won’t help the likes of ISLAND LEGEND, BEST TRIP and CADEAUX PEARL. The strong pace will definitely help EARLSMEDIC over a trip short of his best. If VOLCANIC DUST can’t settle in this race she never will and another chance is given over the same C&D as an eye catching run here in her penultimate race. High hopes that 6f at wolverhampton is enough to excuse a terrible run last time.

CONCLUSION:

1pt win VOLCANIC DUST 8s+ though I would have preferred a slightly better showing last time despite unsuitability of the race.

Wednesday Jan 11th 2012 – Kempton 1815 (6f Hcap)

Model Output

Belinsky (4.82), Meia Noite (6.23), Replicator (9.12), Liberal Lady (10.08), Darwin Star (10.47), Welsh Inlet (13.54), Shawkantango (14.21), Dingaan (19.06), Ermyntrude (21.62), Dickie le Davoir (34.00), Memphis Man (35.98), Dvinsky (36.24)

A race which doesn’t instil confidence. The unexposed MEIA NOITE perhaps may have enough improvement in her to account for a fairly exposed bunch. However, at the prices a chance is taken with BELINSKY repeating his previous run here (which would see him go close) three starts ago from the plum draw. Excuses last time and not performing on the fibresand two starts ago. DARWIN STAR may be helped by the return to sprinting on polytrack.

CONCLUSION:

Small win/place for 1 pt on BELINSKY in view of the price and potential excuses since his last run here. No surprise to see MEIA NOITE going well but not tempted at the price.

Wednesday Jan 11th 2012 – Kempton 1845 (6f Hcap)

Model Output

Rapid Water (5.83), Torres Del Paine (6.18), Diamond Vine (9.44), Demoiselle Bond (10.25), First in Command (11.12), Microlight (13.69), Macks Sister (14.1), White Shift (15.17), Ever the Optimist (19.19), Smoky Cloud (20.63), Welcome Approach (28.6), Vhujon (36.17).

Tight race, again not one to go crazy with. RAPID WATER appears one of the most one paced horses in training – however, convinced the undulations of Lingfield don’t suit, I’m expecting a much better show here than last time. His previous run here reads well enough in the context of today’s race and was not given too hard a time that day once the unexposed winner of that race had flown. TORRES DEL PAINE doesn’t seem one to have maximum faith – clearly a problem at Wolves two starts back and perhaps not helped by a wide draw last time. A run anywhere near his C&D performance in September would have to put him in the mix. DIAMOND VINE is my ‘fly in the ointment’ horse – currently not available at value prices according to the tissue. However, an eye catching run last time when not getting the clearest of runs at a crucial time, coming from a long way back in a race where the leaders prospered. An argument for saying he’s well handicapped, it would be no surprise to see a big run, although Luke Morris chooses MACK’S SISTER today.

CONCLUSION:

RAPID WATER does interest me as an EW play at the overnight prices 11s though he really appears in terminal decline with regards form. Am disappointed at DIAMOND VINE’s price and perhaps will reluctantly pass him on that basis. I’m not sure what to expect from TORRES DEL PAINE. I know it shouldn’t, but what goes on earlier in the day may dictate the play(s). At present a conservative 1/2pt EW Rapid Water at big prices is the thought.

[Pacoboy]

RESULTS:

1615 Kempton (5f)

1st Deveze 12/1
2 Pharoh Jake 14/1
3 Porthgwidden Beach 4/1

A disappointing start to the day…. Of the 4 races studied today this was the one I felt most confident in returning a profit. With most of the field not bearing much resemblance to a thoroughbred racehorse, I felt the return to C&D for BRIAN SPROUT and PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH (both at least demonstrating some abilities associated with the breed) would be positive. BRIAN SPROUT’s last effort over C&D in particular was of note- caught wide and pulling hard yet only just touched off by a scopey horse (for the grade) who followed up and won again. Any horse with that trip had no right to finish where he did – obviously feeling a little guilty with himself, he’s not looking likely to finish there again soon. Note to self – I need to learn that if it looks too good to be true or something about a performance doesn’t add up then it probably is (too good to be true) and the sums need rechecking. Also a pertinent note for VOLCANIC DUST’s performance later in the day (below). As it happened, LADY ROYAL OAK running away with it’s inexperienced jockey didn’t help the selections as they sat closer to the daft pace than the two that beat them. PORTHGWIIDDEN BEACH deserving more credit than BRIAN SPROUT despite the latter being slightly hampered (no real excuse). A 1/2pt bet (only ½ pt on account of lower than tissue price) at 5s on PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH and 1pt bet (7/2+) sunk. Cue an hour of self abuse for even being entertained by such a race – it no doubt won’t be the last time. Selections distinctly hit and miss at the moment and struggling to come to terms with that after a ‘can do no wrong’ month in December.

Staked 1.5pts: Profit -1.5pts

1715 Kempton (5f)

1st CADEAUX PEARL 7/1
2nd WEST COAST DREAM 12/1
3rd SIR GEOFFREY 12/1

A no show from VOLCANIC DUST for the second race running – pulled like a train again and excuses running out. The eye catching run two starts ago slipping towards the ‘too good to be true’ bin – will probably hack up next time without my money weighing her down. A 1pt bet at 7.4 (after withdrawals – originally matched at 8.4) gone. Premature rain clouds gathering in my punting sky. Have found the last few weeks difficult with results tailing off at the same time as me putting pressure on myself by recording everything here – is that affecting my selections? Am I betting in races I shouldn’t, trying to force it? Things I will have to deal with in the coming year. Tired after being awake until all hours with thoughts of a class 7 sprint race at kempton running through my head – I must be crazy. The losses further enhancing my exasperation with the betfair withdrawal reductions (affecting 3 of my 4 races today). A system that always chops off a nice percentage of my bet before rising back out to the original price laid – does that annoy anyone else like me? I guess there is no other way, but it really is infuriating to watch 10% of your price disappear only to rise back to the original price in a matter of minutes in the reformed market. Anyway, with VOLCANIC DUST failing again and EARLSMEDIC running at a trip too short it was left to the 3rd horse in the tissue, CADEAUX PEARL to gamely take the spoils. I’ve not quite jumped on to the Scott Dixon bandwagon just yet (choosing to credit Dandy Nichols with something in relation to the horses’ condition) but you cant fault the results (another 1st and 3rd in this race for him). Anyway….I wasn’t really looking forward to the last two races now as it was the first two I was more confident on. I honestly had visions of being in a no lose situation for the day following a Brian Sprout win in the first race.

Staked 1pt: Profit -1pt

1815 Kempton 6f

1st Belinsky 9/2
2nd Memphis Man 25/1
3rd Dvinsky 11/1

I jumped off the bus on halfway between work and home to pop into the local Paddy’s shop to watch this. I was surprised to see BELINSKY on the board at 4s seeing as I’d backed him earlier at 11.9 (after reductions) for 1/2pt to win and 1/2pt to place at 3.7 (after deductions). Somone fancied him to return to form back at Kempton. Never really a nervous moment, Jim Crowley like the good old pro he is (I’m a big fan of his on the AW) having him in the perfect position and travelling well. My only nerves emanating from the seemingly never ending straight at Kempton as the deep closers had one last charge at him – having seen off everything else pretty easily. An indication of my confidence level given by the fact I slipped into EW betting today rather than win only….still it is a marathon not a sprint and all that.

Staked 1pt: Profit: 6.5pts

1845 Kempton 6f

1st Vhujon 14/1
2nd Torres del Paine 4/1
3rd Rapid Water 11/2

Old plodder RAPID WATER collected place money for a 1/2pt EW bet at 9.9/3.07 on betfair. The horse really travelled well and looked the winner to me coming into the last furlong and a half. Refusing to go through with his run and apparently shying away from Adam Kirby’s whip. To my eye he could have gone much closer to winning had he wanted to…..steer clear of him from now on – the poor old boy has issues between his ears – I think I know how he feels. TORRES DEL PAINE ran much better too as predicted though a combination of early money and the withdrawal of DIAMOND VINE meant he was never a backer’s price for me. I could never back a Peter Grayson horse if it was the only horse in a race so well done VHUJON – extra credit to the horse.

Staked: 1pt, Profit 1pt

An up and down day which finally brings things a touch on the better side of red.

RUNNING TOTAL: 17.5pts, Profit 1.5pts

[Pacoboy]

Thurs Jan 12th 1555 Southwell (6f)

Rushed post today and running the risk of being late for work by even attempting it. FEAR NOTHING came out top of the tissue (7.1) as a result of game effort well backed over 5f here last time. MAZOVIAN a close second (9.5) on the tissue. However, a few niggling doubts about them in an apparently tight race. A 1/2pt is risked on FANTASY FRY at double fig prices. Seemed to run much better last time. If building on that, his wide margin victories over this course earlier in the year warrant respect. LINDORO probably better than he looked last time and seems to enjoy this track. BEACHWOOD BAY still unexposed may go well under a penalty.

[Pacoboy]

Friday 13th January Lingfield 1600 (5f)

Blown It (6.32), Grand Stitch (6.85), Ability N Delivery (7.37), Clifford’s Reprieve (8.68), Jimmy Ryan (9.15), Court Applause (9.22), Darwin Star (13.08), Decider (17.35), Sherjawy (19.28), Super Frank (24.34)

Friday the 13th hmmmm, Hopefully I’ve become very superstitious by the end of tomorrow. Formerly smart JIMMY RYAN won easily over C&D last time and will be ably assisted by Raul Da Silva again – no surprises to see a big run. SHEJAWY ‘weighted to reverse form’ with him today but the winner appeared to have much more in hand and we all know a ‘swing in weights’ isn’t always what it’s cracked up to be don’t we? Improvement and a winning attitude often answering any questions the official handicapper may pose. CLIFFORDS REPRIEVE also won well last time. However, he achieved no more than the betting suggested he should by winning a pretty weak race – what did he prove? Previous attempts in handicaps flattered to deceive. Am wary of DECIDER, having backed him to win this last year but there will be competition up front today in the form of GRAND STITCH. He interests me today at the prices on the basis that Lingfield may just suit his gung-ho style. An easier track than Wolverhampton may just help him to last the extra yard that eluded him when almost denying The Tatling his fond farewell. He certainly hasn’t been getting beat for lack of enthusiasm and he has performed at a better level than this so there is still some hope he can get his head in front off his current mark. BLOWN IT desperately unlucky last time and was worth a few more pounds that day – badly hampered before running on again when all chance lost- heavily fancied by the market that day, in that kind of form it isn’t difficult to see him getting involved where it matters if taking to the track (not a given).

CONCLUSION:
BLOWN IT 1pt 9/2, GRAND STITCH 1/2pt 11/1. Hopefully won’t rue taking the slightly skinnier price about BLOWN IT.

Wolverhampton 1810 (6f)

Ghostwing (5.7), Frequency (7.94), Woolfall Sovereign (7.99), Restless Bay (9.17), Pick a Little (9.74), Punching (12.85), Tamareen (13.4), Tislaam (13.95), Roodee Queen (16.34), Desert Strike (22.55), Legal Eagle (31.3)

The earlier sprint at Wolverhamton not tempting me so on to the 1810. GHOSTWING was very impressive last time winning easily with little need for persuasion. Formerly running at a much higher level and the suspicion is that 6f will suit even better. If he can get anywhere close to some of his better form in the past he is a big player. His case aided by WOOLFALL TREASURE being drawn high. That one probably deserves extra credit for being closer to the pace than the decent pair that just denied him last week. The overall strength of that race probably represents the best form for this and it would be no surprise to see him win but when considering GHOSTWING’s former exploits (hmmm having just said that, that phrase worries me….relying on ‘former exploits’ is surely not good!) and much better draw, I prefer him. From the same race as WOOLFALL TREASURE, Hughie Morrison’s, PICK A LITTLE is interesting. Not beaten far after a break, there could be some argument for improvement. His new trainer, a decent trainer of sprinters, also adding to the hope of improvement. However, his wide draw also concerns me a little, and a bit of money for him last time perhaps indicated he was considered ready.

CONCLUSION:
1pt GHOSTWING 4/1+. I’m sure it isn’t as obvious as it seems but a good draw, impressive un-challenged win last time, previous concrete evidence of being better than this mark (particularly at this trip), he’s got to run well hasn’t he??? I’d expected him to be 5/2 or so on the basis of his last run ???

[Pacoboy]

RESULTS:

1600 Lingfield

1st Jimmy Ryan 7/2
2nd Blown It 3/1
3rd Clifford’s Reprieve 4/1

1810 Wolverhampton

1st Woolfall Treasure 5/2
2nd Tamareen 8/1
3rd Tislaam 13/2

Races like the 1810 at Wolverhampton will always ruin my day. My Friday night is written off. I’m tired as I’ve had nowhere near enough sleep this week from a combination of studying dire AW races until a time which isn’t healthy and subsequently ‘tossing and turning’ over my conclusions. The sleep deprivation may be clouding my judgement but the sequence of events surrounding this race nark me. Firstly, withdrawals on the scale of today irritate – 2 out of 10 at Lingfield and 3 out of 11 at Wolverhampton. There has been plenty of withdrawals all week. Fun and games by connections no doubt – polytrack is polytrack, by and large the race is going to be the same as it was 48hrs ago – horses go wrong, sure, but there seems an awful lot of horses with a poor appetite recently (‘not eating up’) – although to be fair the prospect of going to Wolverhampton would put me off my food too. The most pertinent thing of course, from a punter’s point of view, is that it changes the shape of races. On the face of it, WOOLFALL TREASURE faced a really difficult task being drawn 11 of 11 yet 8 of 8 (following withdrawals) is less insurmountable as he duly showed. The race becomes a different race and much of the previous analysis obsolete. Not to mention all the betfair deductions. I was left with a bet of less than 7/2 on GHOSTWING (after deductions) in a race that now bore no resemblance to the one examined. I wouldn’t have touched 10/3 or 7/2 even with a reduced field had connections decided they didn’t fancy Wolverhampton tonight a little earlier. Which does indeed bring me to GHOSTWING. A horse who had won as he liked last time, a horse who had proven form on the surface, a horse who had form at a much better level, a horse who had been trading at 7/2 all day, a horse that suddenly takes a nose dive to 13/2 ten minutes before the off. I can accept his price drifting due to money for everything else (as there was), I can accept maybe old polytrack form could flatter him, I can accept that it has been fibresand that has sparked his recent decent efforts, I can accept that horses have bad days without any obvious explanation, I can accept that sometimes a previous good performance takes more than envisaged out of a horse. What I find hard to stomach is when a surprisingly poor effort (finishing stone last) is accompanied by a massive drift (almost doubling in price) and a jockey having to start earning his fee 3.5 furlongs from home – beaten before any of the above should even have been a factor. If the drift was down to weight of money of other horses being backed it shouldn’t necessarily automatically indicate that he was going to run an absolute stinker as happened. Hard-held winner to a ‘beaten 3 furlongs from home’ no hoper in the space of a week. All of the above in isolation wouldn’t get to me – only when it is accompanied by that tell tale betfair tumble. Stopping short of anything libelous I will put it down to the Friday the 13th effect.

BLOWN IT ran ok earlier in the day having been backed to favourite – I don’t think being stuck on the extreme inside helped in the straight (slow part of the track) or ABILITY AND DELIVERY’s withdrawal maybe taking the edge of the pace. He ran well enough though and take nothing away from the winner, JIMMY RYAN, who is in great form at the moment and clearly had plenty in hand last time. The price had gone on GRAND STICH before getting a bet so saved from his lethargic showing.

Beer, bed and try again tomorrow.

Staked 2pts, Profit -2pts on the day

RUNNING TOTAL:
Staked 20pts, Profit -1pts

[Pacoboy]

Saturday 14th January Lingfield 1335 (6f)

Diamond Vine (6.10), Lastkingofscotland (7.1), Showboating (7.4), Roman Strait (8.3), Efistorm (10.23), The Strig (11.5), Johnstown Lad (14.2), Fantasy Fighter (15.55), Overwhelm (16.7), Dickie Le Davoir (31.35), Nubar Boy (36.9)

Back to the Blue Square Sprint Series today and I don’t expect it to be any easier than last week. Enhanced prize money for the grade attracting decent competition and maybe a little hide and seek with the handicapper. Time analysis is a difficult thing to fathom (though very fruitful if you can I’m sure) due to the large number of things which may cloud the waters of an apparently fast (or slow) time. Pace, track condition, quality of field, weight, weather etc etc etc makes it very difficult to compare different races, particularly for a man of my resource – time and intellect! However, I’m starting to think this morning that it could be a worthwhile observation that the first division of last week’s sprint series was run in a time 0.52 seconds slower than the second division. Roughly 3 lengths in the context of the races – a ‘country mile’. If ever there was an opportunity to compare and contrast times it would be in a situation like this? Two handicaps run one after the other at the same course on the same day with similar quality horses running in a compressed competitive handicap. The tricky bit is deciding whether the first race was run very slowly or the 2nd race was run very quickly? I’m siding with the view that the 2nd race was a bit quicker than expected (only 3 lengths slower than the class 2 handicap on the same day). Trying to understand the relevance of the race times (or more specifically how the races were run) may help today with many horses who ran last week running again today, either re-opposing or swapping divisions. On this basis I want to make the conclusion that EFISTORM was favoured by the race last week (prominent in the slower race) and so I’m not worried by a little money for him this morning – on that evidence he’s reached his ceiling for now. By contrast FANTASY FIGHTER probably did ok to keep plugging on off a slow pace and maybe that was better than it looked – he is well handicapped on last year and is drawn better today. He is interesting but I feel there may be well handicapped ones also in there that may have shown a bit more recently. LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND I was not convinced about at all at the 4/1 mark he was earlier – not over 6f at Lingfield. Had already made the call to oppose him before he started slowly drifting out – I don’t think he’ll have the toe for this unless they go too quickly early. ROMAN STRAIT I backed last time and looks like he has a decent turn of foot required for polytrack. He has been popular this morning but still feel there may be more scope in a few others. The two that I have backed (both at 13/2) are DIAMOND VINE and SHOWBOATING. The former running well in the faster 2nd division last week (I’m holding on to the hope that the race will ‘work out’ better) when finishing strongly after a less than perfect passage. He was well backed at Kempton in the week before being withdrawn and if repeating last week (though I hope he won’t be as far back) he could be in the mix. SHOWBOATING appeared to run quite well in a much better race than this over 7f at the same course recently. Travelling well and quickening ok before petering out (cant work out whether he was squeezed out slightly but didn’t appear to be given a hard time) – he has run to a higher level of form than this previously so with RAUL DA SILVA booked – who surely is better than a 5lb claimer – I’m willing to give him a shot at 6f today.

CONCLUSION:
1pt win 13/2 on DIAMOND VINE and SHOWBOATING. Hopefully both may be a bit closer to the pace than last time. ROMAN STRAIT feared most. Seems to have been a bit of money into 11/2 for SHOWBOATING whilst writing the post

[Pacoboy]

Saturday 14th January Lingfield 1410 (6f)

Waabel (7.5), Rio Royale (8.49), Forty Proof (9.1), Captain Dimitrios (9.4), Dead Cool (10.2), Speak the Truth (10.6), Riflessionne (11.95), Aldermoor (13.3), Chjimes (14., Black Baccara (16.6), Memphis Man (18.5)

If ALDERMOOR is at his best and there’s money around, he could be dangerous. RIO ROYALE I’m willing to oppose (despite being a grand old polytrack horse) on the basis of having the run of the slower race last week. By contrast, SPEAK THE TRUTH came from furthest back (of those in the frame) and had to be switched in the same race. That run could potentially be upgraded on that basis and he could possibly still be competitive – he ran consistently well around here in last year’s competition. I’m definitely interested in him at the price – my only concern is that connections now start to try and accumulate points for the final whilst trying to protect his handicap mark (i.e. placing not winning). CAPTAIN DIMITRIOS and WAABEL were at the sharp end of the quicker race last time, CAPTAIN DIMITRIOS appearing to outstay the other as much as anything else – he is still well handicapped on old form (when I read all of these posts back , phrases like this may haunt me! But I guess that will be the benefit of keeping an accurate record of my thoughts so that I can toss away ‘Thompsonesque’ observations about old form if the profit column appears to have been seriously damaged by such lines of thinking) and is a likely contender. However, WAABEL did do the donkey work in that race – coming across from a high draw. A big player in last year’s sprint series he showed some evidence of returning to form over his favourite C&D– sticking on well (better than expected) after setting the pace. Carrying less weight today and slightly better drawn, if able to set slightly easier fractions in front this week he may be able to hold out the extra 50yards required – in pure terms he looks a faster horse than CAPTAIN DIMITRIOS. In light of his much lower handicap mark this year than when a leading contender in the final of this last year (there I go again) I think he’s worth a play. A decent horse on his day, won’t find any trouble in running from his likely leading position, a solid chance if the fractions are right.

CONCLUSION:

1pt SPEAK THE TRUTH 8/1 + 1pt place 2/1, 1pt win WAABEL 6/1. Testing the pace theories of last week’s races.

[Pacoboy]

RESULTS:

1335 Lingfield 6f

1st The Strig 10/1
2nd Diamond Vine 6/1
3rd Showboating 4/1

1410 Lingfield 6f

1st Speak the Truth 15/2
2nd Captain Dimitrios 13/2
3rd Aldermoor 13/2

Really a tale of the jockeys today. I really think Lingfield should be an easy place to ride. Often the races are run quite slowly around here (certainly the case today in the two races), the polytrack surface is rubberised and quite energy saving and the tight turns mean horses travel well within themselves for most of the race (my theories anyway). Put all those things together, it is very difficult to come from too far off the pace in sprints. If you are there trying, there should only one place you should want your horse to be – i.e. close up chasing leader or leaders so you are in a position to kick off the bend without being at the mercy of horses coming back to you (which is the only way you win from behind). Numerous attempts to get that message across to jockeys when I had runners tootling around here last year always fell on deaf ears. Both DIAMOND VINE and SHOWBOATING (even more so) were left too much to do in a slowly run race – finishing strongly into 2nd and 3rd all too late – disappointing when that happens. William Carson rode the perfect race on THE STRIG to win easily. I had thought hard about THE STRIG in formulating my tissue, eventually coming to the incorrect conclusion that 6f wouldn’t be ideal. However, in hindsight, it shouldn’t have been an issue…his 5f win at kempton coming when he stayed on in a very strongly run race – a few clues in that run which would suggest 6f would be as suitable. Take nothing away from the winner but I’d take my selections again in a more acceptably run race…. though well done William Carson – perfect ride.

I have no idea what Martin Harley, jockey of WAABEL was doing in the 1410 race. Deliberately taking him back in behind horses. A horse that is at his happiest when stretching out in front…very bizarre decision. If he’s the type of jockey who’d be concerned about pushing a horse on from a wide draw, then he didn’t show it last week when riding the same horse. A clear opportunity was there from the gate (broke ok and nothing pressing on) to be positive – which would have suited the horse much better. Very well backed, the horse ran quite well considering, finishing 4th. Meanwhile, in contrast, Nathan Alison rode the ideal polytrack race on SPEAK THE TRUTH, chased leaders, kicked off the bend, kept him up to his work – ‘as easy as 1,2,3’. Admirably consistent horse and a nice enough performance – a stronger run race may have suited him so I wouldn’t totally rule out more to come.

Staked 5pts, Profit 7pts for the day

RUNNING TOTAL:
Staked 25pts, Profit +6pts

[Pacoboy]

Wednesday 18th January Lingfield 1500 (5f)

Estonia (4.57), Triple Dream (5.41), Rylee Mooch (5.84), Desert Strike (7.00), Black Baccara (7.25), Mandy’s Hero (13.6), Sherjawy (14.4)

Nothing to go at in terms of sprint handicaps for the last few days, which means I have to be careful as I have got quite an itch building up on the trigger finger. Whilst I always like my horses to have the appetite to get on with things, I’m not sure it’s a good trait for a punter and before getting too eager, it would be wise to make sure the gun isn’t pointing at my own head. To be honest, I can’t guarantee that today. In the 5f sprint at Lingfield, I can make some case for most but can’t really make a bullet-proof case for any. ESTONIA is a horse I like at this sort of grade on polytrack, she has a decent enough turn of foot required to win races around here on her day. The pace scenario didn’t really suit last time and I can forgive any horse a poor run at Wolverhampton (as per her penultimate run) – her win at kempton prior to these two runs would have her in the mix. I just have a nagging doubt I’d be clutching at straws a little bit. I do think she beat TRIPLE DREAM fair and square that day (pulling herself up towards the end) and he (TRIPLE DREAM) doesn’t strike me as one that screams “well handicapped”. Though in a race like today his excellent jockey is likely to have him in the best position possible and may just be favoured by the run of the race on that basis. DESERT STRIKE cantered round on Sunday pulling the proverbial before shutting up shop when asked to go past the eventual winner. I’m dubious that was only on account of the extra furlong that day (much better at today’s shorter trip). He will definitely need an honest pace to be seen at his best which isn’t guaranteed and I’m certainly not convinced Lingfield is his track. BLACK BACCARA is running ok at present but again will have to improve to level she’s never shown in her previous 43 starts. Though she did have ESTONIA’s measure in the very messy/slow race at kempton. However, in a true run race I wouldn’t necessarily expect her to uphold that. SHERJAWY has been much better than this in the past but although he’s threatened lately he hasn’t really convinced me fully he’s ready to run to old levels of form despite having enough chances. RYLEE MOOCH would be the one I’d be interested if someone aside from me, actually was holding the afore mentioned gun to my head. His level of form has been relatively consistent and I took note of his 2nd most recent start at southwell where he seemingly chased a decent enough pace and stuck to his task well. That had led me to give him a squeak last time but he subsequently never really went a yard. The decision is would boil down to whether there is enough in his price (currently 7/1ish) to forgive him that on the basis that it ‘came too soon’ – only 5 days after his previous exertions. If fresher and keener to get on with it, he could run well in a race that may suit early pace. He has won here on his only try and his polytrack record is ok.

CONCLUSION:

I think TRIPLE DREAM will be solid but not necessarily ‘value’. RYLEE MOOCH may get me shooting blindfolded in the dark if his price got to 8s+

[Pacoboy]

RESULT:

1st Desert Strike 3/1
2nd Rylee Mooch 9/2
3rd Estonia 9/2

My instinct that “I could make a case for most but not a strong case for any” proved reasonably accurate with 6 of the 7 finishing within a length or two of each other. A 1pt bet on RYLEE MOOCH was matched at a little over 8/1 and on balance I think that was a decent enough bet – particularly considering his SP. Racing on the lead as hoped, he was only just touched off on the line, by DESERT STRIKE. I do have mixed feelings about that result. On one hand I think there’s an argument for saying he was the 3rd best horse in the race but on the other hand, I do feel with a better jockey on top he would have won. I’m not a fan of the lad riding today (so I get what I deserve I suppose) and I felt he was very disorganised in the finish today – actually visibly losing momentum on a few occasions to my eye – maybe I’m talking through the wallet but a stronger more balanced ride and I’m sure he’d have been called the winner.

Staked 1pt: Profit -1pt.

RUNNING TOTAL:
Staked 26pts, Profit 5pts

[Pacoboy]

Thursday 19th January Wolverhampton Fillies Handicap (6f)

Suddenly Susan (4.01), Dancing Welcome (5.31), Dead Cool (6.43), Gold Tobougg (7.5), Chester Deelyte (9.19), Polemica (13.5), Two Turtle Doves (21.7), Basle (22.61)

It’s difficult to see CHESTER DEELYTE, TWO TURTLE DOVES or POLEMICA turning form around with the impressive DANCING WELCOME, easy winner of a similar fillies handicap over C&D recently. On the face of it, she would have to go close to following up. However, there has to be a slight doubt that it all wasn’t quite as good as it seemed – has she really just suddenly improved as a 6yo after 64 races? She would certainly have to improve again to defy her penalty. Perhaps more of a concern to anyone wanting to back DANCING WELCOME at short prices is that GOLD TOBOUGG and DEAD COOL look dangerously unexposed to me. The way the former ran last time over 7f hints to me that the step down to 6f will suit and that the prerequisite improvement is very possible – I do feel the prices around are slightly on the short side though. DEAD COOL had some reasonable form last year and was purchased for a decent amount in December (presumably for breeding purposes). She had no chance with the way the race was run at the weekend, held up in a slowly run race and it is quite possible she could improve enough to take a hand – definitely overpriced. SUDDENLY SUSAN was unable to dominate last time which may be a reason she under performed. Previously, she’d had the southwell moonscape all to herself as she rendered a 6f handicap a no contest from about halfway – destroying all comers from the front by 5 lengths. If this race lacks a competitive edge up front (as on first inspection it seems), she could take some pegging back. Despite not seemingly having the scope of some mentioned above – she may be worth chancing at bigger prices.

CONCLUSION:
Not a confident selection, but it quite often pays to be with the speed. SUDDENLY SUSAN is taken to make all at 8/1+. DEAD COOL certainly seems overpriced too and may be a play at double figure odds. Though I think, I’ll try and get matched early with a view to laying off if possible.

[Author]

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