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My Punting Year 2012

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  • #20671
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    2012 – My Punting Life

    Welcome to my punting life 2012. This year will be a pivotal year for me. I am employed in an industry which is suffering from the current economic landscape and will continue to do so for the foreseeable. My current professional shelf-life is short and things are becoming a drag. Things will change this year one way or another.

    My one true passion in life is the study of and the betting on UK flat racing, specifically sprint handicaps. I have spent years researching, testing, cheering, crying, winning, losing. I have always dreamed of being able to be involved in the betting industry professionally – it is where my heart lies and where a drive and determination, that is perhaps lacking in the day job, has underpinned any successes thus far.

    An ill advised venture into ownership with some very unscrupulous business partners set me back but taught much. The experience made me more determined to be a success in the game. To do this I needed a more professional approach. I took the summer off from punting as my mindset was not right for the job – chasing the losses of the ownership fiasco would have been too tempting. Instead I have worked on improving my betting strategy with a specific goal of developing a sound method for assessing price – the watchword of the professional approach is VALUE.

    I have always been of the scientific persuasion as opposed to the artistic persuasion, particularly with respect to form study and on this basis my favoured approach was to develop a statistical model (logistic regression) for my use. It has been developed with a much larger degree of blood sweat and tears than any great mathematical prowess but after many many blind alleys I have something which I am satisfied with and for now feel I can trust. It is in theory based upon profit/value as opposed to strike rate – all important. Consider that SP’ s are very accurate gauges of chance (Strike rate) but will provide no value (Profit). I also discovered that fundamental to building a useful model is to limit it to a few key variables. Over complicated models will over fit test data and be less likely to be relevant to the future. There is also still room for my own judgement to be accommodated into the modelling process too. I had originally tried to fully automate the process but had already discovered this approach to be less than infallible a few weeks before Betfair did this week! I hope I have a balanced (if not infinitesimally accurate) result.

    Testing my computer program/model in the real world for the last month has been highly encouraging with an ROI on 70+ bets to be beyond any wildest expectation. But of course what is important is tomorrow not yesterday and from now on I intend to keep an honest diary of my bets on this forum. The reason I am hanging it all out to dry is that if successful, I hope it will open up some doors – bearing in mind I’m soon to be unemployed. If unsuccessful it may provide some cheap therapy!!! I have no doubt it will range from very good to very very bad, there will be ups, there will be downs. Please join me for the ride to see where 2012 can lead.

    #385245
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    Sunday Jan 1st 2012 – Southwell 1320 (5f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Even Stevens (6.4), Mottley Crewe (6.55), Monsieur Jamie (6.64), Six Wives (6.81), What About You (7.09), Sleepy Blue Ocean (8.99), Falasteen (13.9), Captain Scooby (14.49).

    An open looking handicap if ever there was one and rarely are the model’s odds so compressed. Really strikes me as a race with no edge for a punter and should be left well alone. Usually it has paid for me to focus on the first and second favourites in terms of my model output but there are no less than 5 horses within half a point of each other! The figures in brackets represent my decimal odds for the race. EVEN STEVENS was very destructive in his latest win over C&D and left the impression he had more to come in races like this – he wasn’t really stretched to my eye. That performance came in a race which was probably the strongest race of its type on the fibresand in recent weeks. He is a worthy favourite but I cannot take his current price (best 3/1). MOTTLEY CREWE has been running well in recent weeks and is probably a little overpriced still at 7/1. A fizzy, highly strung character and has shown signs of doing a little too much too soon for me to be confident in a race like this and there are a lot of horses who like to force the pace. Removal of blinkers last time didn’t appear to calm him down as he broke the gate and was withdrawn when well fancied at Kempton! Did have to be switched when just touched off by SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN in his last run before his aborted Kempton trip although both of those appeared to be fully extended that day and hard to know how much more improvement is possible on those performances. Certainly there appears less scope for improvement from the latter though one thing in his favour today appears to be an excess of pace in today’s race – could the race be set up for something coming later? It usually pays to be handy over C&D though. As decent as he is, I’m doubtful MONSIEUR JAMIE will improve enough to be considered a bet here and seemed easily brushed aside by Even Stevens last time. SIX WIVES was impressive last time but in a much weaker race and although she had plenty in hand that day, will she be put under too much pressure early in a much stronger race today? WHAT ABOUT YOU would seem to have a reasonable chance on form, particularly if taking to the course. His last effort, unless I missed something, was worryingly limp in the context of today’s race. FALASTEEN wins today if running to the level of his best turf form. He is either hot or cold however and I can’t imagine the temperamental ones enjoy Southwell too much. Has a break to overcome (though trainer’s record off a break is quite good) and has not previously been as effective away from the turf. CAPTAIN SCOOBY was an eye catcher in his last two races for me not really having much room two runs back and running on quite well last time without too much persuasion on Polytrack. Can’t say I’m a big fan of the jockey today though and this is tougher.

    CONCLUSION: Minefield, will leave alone and not make the New Year hangover any worse. Perhaps a strange way to end the first post, but I can’t see an edge for me and have no strong opinions on value. Learning to walk away from races like this will be a useful trait to develop over the coming months.

    #385247
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    RESULT:
    1st Even Stevens 11/4
    2nd Mottley Crewe 5/1
    3rd Six Wives 11/2

    Staked 0pts: Profit 0pts
    A forecast for the model. There would be times where this would be a sickner with nothing invested. However, value is ‘king’ if I am to succeed and my model said there wasn’t much of that. Reitterated by the fact the market got it right with the 1st and 2nd Favs finishing where they should.

    I’ll take the result as a positive.

    (N.B Time of post was 13:15 five mins before the off not 14:15 as shown!). Will post late evening night before or early morning when I’m more prepared.

    #385267
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4379

    I am sure everyone here will be rooting for you

    Pacoboy

    , good luck and best wishes for 2012.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #385332
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    Monday Jan 2nd 2012 – Southwell 1215 (5f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Nafa (4.25), Gorgeous Goblin (7.43), Fear Nothing (9.76), Argentine (11.20), Tancred Spirit (12.4), Skylla (13.4), Sharp Shoes (13.6), Striking Willow (15.05), Divertimenti (20.73), Steel City Boy (26.83), Flow Chart (34.16), Egyptian Lord (35.31).

    Pretty low grade stuff at Southwell….Urghh what’s new? I quite rightly hear you cry. Why would anyone even waste their time with it? In my case it has been approximately 2hrs and counting!! Anyway, for me personally the reasons are several. Firstly, at this time of year there isn’t much else for me to study considering I only ever bet in sprint handicaps (bar the odd misdemeanour). Secondly, I’m clinging to the logic that if many people prefer to dismiss them as bookies’ fodder then there will be more markets formed with less ‘shrewd’ money, theoretically giving me more chance of an edge. Also, to paraphrase the famous poem, when they are bad they are horrid! Meaning it isn’t rare to find a large proportion of the field that should be plying their trade a long way from any race track (even a fibresand one in January). Hopefully this particular race is one of those instances.

    I can’t see many horses hiding away or that will suddenly dramatically improve. SHARP SHOES maybe one but although showing improved form LTO after a sluggish start, on balance he hasn’t convinced me enough that he will reach the level of his better form on turf or at Southwell this time last year – if he does he’s well up to this (it’s barely a horse race) – I think there was some money for him last time from memory – he could be an obvious one after the race has finished! ARGENTINE is in decent enough form for this, running behind a well handicapped fibresand horse, Wreningham last time here. He’ll be popular but I’d prefer to stick with the model and focus attention on NAFA and GORGEOUS GOBLIN.

    NAFA is unexposed on this surface and ran well here last time, showing decent enough speed after a break. I don’t think his trainer has had a massively good record with runners off a break so I’m hoping that if he’s come on a few pounds for the run, he has just enough scope for improvement to go well here today anything in the 7/2, 4/1 ball park will interest me. Admittedly, this kind of price is perhaps a little skinny but my model says 3/1 and there is a lot of dross in the race.

    Which ever way I look at it GORGEOUS GOBLIN’s form on fibresand is solid to me for this kind of race. He isn’t going to improve and I should probably be avoiding long standing maidens as betting propositions, but sometimes ‘solid’ is enough against ‘horrid’. He will definitely be a hindsight horse what ever his performance backed or unbacked!! If his double figure price holds on betfair I will be tempted perhaps with a view to laying off in running.

    CONCLUSION:

    1pt win NAFA 7/2+
    1/2pt win GORGEOUS GOBLIN 10/1+

    #385357
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    Monday Jan 2nd 2012 – Southwell 1455 (5f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Greenhead High (7.25), Spitfire (8.84), Elhamri (10.34), Upper Lambourn (10.9), El Dececy (12.7),
    Ace of Spies (12.81), Cyflymder (13.9), Sir Mozart (14.24), Sir Louis (15.01), Forty Proof (15.04), Mazovian (15.46), Incomparable (15.72).

    Fear Nothing backed in the last race. Was available at backable prices, will be interested to see how he goes – I’m becoming a fan of his trainer, David O’Meara.

    Anyway, the 14:55. More of the same in terms of quality and I can’t really see much to interest me. GREENHEAD HIGH is favourite based on my computer output, which is a little surprising. I’m sure he will run his race, but I’m sure it will be at exactly the same level of form and in all likelihood he will find one touching him off again. The race weakened by the withdrawal of the overnight favourite but Greenhead High isn’t massively appealing to be honest. Neither is UPPER LAMBOURN. I gave a chance to that one in his reappearance on fibresand last time but notwithstanding his layoff, he didn’t convince me he is well handicapped or that his previous southwell win hasn’t flattered him. If 6f helps and he runs to that kind of level he is unexposed enough to be in the mix. I won’t be tempted at the price. SPITFIRE is interesting as he has been running well lately and he has shown a level of form much better than this race in the not too distant past. I don’t think he has been helped by being held up over this C&D and his draw today suggests he will probably be ridden from deep again – I’d never back a horse over this C&D who I felt will be too far back – if he’s good enough to overcome that today then I’ll take it on the chin. ELHAMRI is the one who’s bothering me, the punting demons whispering ‘back me’, ‘back me’ despite my initial model output suggesting his current price of 5/1 ish on betfair is skinny. I thought he travelled better than most into the straight over 7f here last time and you only have to go back a year to find form that would wipe the floor with this lot. He is drawn to be in the right position and a decent run is guaranteed. His price isn’t great on recent levels of form but in a run of the mill race I think he’s better than these. EL DECECY is of similar profile to elhamri and is a consideration – he beat elhamri easily when they met last time. However, I felt elhamri was given an ‘interesting’ ride in that race and despite finishing a long way behind el dececy he still seemed to travel easier at the trip (el dececy was always being niggled to go the pace and is arguably better over further). If from a better draw ELHAMRI doesn’t give el dececy too much rope up front, I can envisage him turning the tables on him. The markets suggest a few others obviously agree and am disappointed the fav was withdrawn as 8s,9s looked likely last night :-(.

    CONCLUSION:
    It is probably quite competitive this race but Elhamri visually pleased me last time and return to 6f will suit. 1pt Elhamri 5/1+… and I know I shouldn’t.

    #385370
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17530

    The very best of luck with this Paco, hope things go well in 2012.

    #385374
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    RESULT:

    1st Argentine 5/1
    2nd Fear Nothing 11/4f
    3rd Green Goblin 5/1

    Staked 1.5pts: Profit -1.5pts

    Pretty ropey stuff. GREEN GOBLIN has run a reasonably honest race backed in from 12s+ to 9/2 at one point on betfair. This is as good as that one is and is evidently likely to struggle to win off current mark. The writing was on the wall for NAFA even before the race started, drifting to an alarming 10/1 on betfair, finishing 4th without ever looking likely to get involved at the business end. Money spoke for FEAR NOTHING who ran well for his top trainer and ARGENTINE has reiterated the credentials of Wreningham as a fibresand horse at this grade. Uninspiring! Next……….

    #385381
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    RESULT:

    1st Upper Lambourn 15/2
    2nd Mazovian 12/1
    3rd Greenhead High 6/1

    Staked 2.5pts: Profit -2.5pts

    Poor effort…..over thinking it, borne out of the desire to get a winner in early. My trial for the previous month betting for real but away from the forum yielded a healthy enough 35pts profit. In all of the 70 or so bets during that period I never backed a horse that was half the price my tissue said it should be like ELHAMRI (4th)! He again travelled well into the straight but a week of bad decision making to be honest – form is definitely relevant to the punter as well as the horse and it will turn round. I should just reiterate my mental status is based on a months worth of punting and not just the day of posting on here! I have had 3 poor days in a row now in terms of decision making – which makes me more cross than poor results. Still reeling from Saturday where I turned down the chance to back Sulis Minerva (my tissue fav) at a value price after it was a drifter following being tipped by Hugh Taylor only to watch it win in a canter. This had closely followed me missing my price on Royal Bajan (tissue fav) by minutes – choosing to wait for it to come back, which of course never happened – won easy after being heavily punted. Three days bad decisions isn’t a problem, and it only feels worse than it should because it was going better than it should the week prior. Right decision making is usually helped by confidence. Time to refocus. It’s the bipolar nature of a punter’s mind – my best periods of punting have coincided with controlling that. It’s the biggest challenge for any punter – those that do will be in the profitable minority.

    In my first tissue I had UPPER LAMBOURN as fav but talked my way out of it for the reasons given above – which was my choice of course – to be fair to the horse he ran on strongly and may have more to offer. The few times I have changed my tissue the first one has always been more accurate. Oh well onwards and upwards. You live and learn…or at least we should ;-) GREENHEAD HIGH ran his race, as well as could be expected. Nothing really stood out in the two races today and that has showed in the results.

    #385419
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    Tuesday Jan 3rd 2012 – Southwell 1500 (5f Hcap)

    Model Output

    No Mean Trick (4.04), Ghostwing (4.99), Rylee Mooch (8.59), Shawkantango (9.25), Bookiesindexboy (11.82), Dancing Freddy (12.51), Clear Ice (13.74), Grudge (17.68), Love You Louis (29.72).

    Not inspiring me to open up the wallet….nothing really standing out as still progressing or ready to strike. NO MEAN TRICK available at bigger prices than the tissue but haven’t we seen all he has to offer for now? Probably unfavoured by the race pace last time explaining a slightly below par effort but had the race panned out a little better my gut is saying he wouldn’t have achieved much more than already had been the case. The manner of his Southwell win offered some brief encouragement that a return to this C&D would eek out a bit more but the apparent slow time of that race is very off putting. GHOSTWING’s last effort was a strange one looking useless for half the race and decent for the rest…I’m wary…I think they came back to him rather than anything else. In terms of price, ‘the computer says no’ though he is one who has a much better level of form when he puts his mind to it. Not convinced 5f is ideal. If the conclusion is GHOSTWING was favoured by an overly strong pace last time then the corresponding assumption is that RYLEE MOOCH wasn’t and in actual fact he put up a great show to stay in the hunt for so long after being at the sharp end from the off. He is definitely interesting and much more the early pace type I feel you should be concentrating on in sprints – still the tissue price doesn’t indicate there is value.

    The most value (strictly on model output) appears to be NO MEAN TRICK and if I could convince myself there was more to come from him back at Southwell I’d have an interest – but I can’t 100%, and I won’t unless the price got silly.

    CONCLUSION: Sensible decision is to pass for now.

    #385487
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    RESULT:

    1st Ghostwing 3/1
    2nd No Mean Trick 9/2
    3rd Dancing Freddy 6/1

    RUNNING TOTAL: Staked 2.5pts: Profit -2.5pts

    Of no benefit to the profit column today but decent enough analysis. Top two in the tissue finishing in the first two places despite decent money for SHAWKANTANGO and DANCING FREDDY. GHOSTWING did it very easily, continuing where he left off in the second half of his last race. Always up there this time travelling well (concerns regarding 5f wide of the mark on this surface), only having to be pushed out – could go on and win again – as stated in the analysis he had better form than these if on a going day – he evidently was. NO MEAN TRICK ran his race but you usually have to improve to win races and he doesn’t appear to have much of that left – a decent benchmark to the level of the form. GHOSTWING did actually drift out to the tissue price of 4.9 at one stage and NO MEAN TRICK was as big as 8/1 before fluctuating down to 3/1 and 6/1 on betfair.

    #385709
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    Friday Jan 6th 2012 – Lingfield 1525 (5f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Royal Bajan (5.02), Novabridge (7.06), Jolly Ranch (7.56), Welsh Inlet (7.81), Jimmy Ryan (9.56), Even Bolder (9.93), Liberal Lady (10.07), Miss Polly Plum (18.85), Sherjawy (24.26)

    ROYAL BAJAN was very impressive last time in what was a very powerful front running performance over C&D. No doubt plenty of people will be happy to wager a follow up and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t start a well backed favourite in the realms of 6/4. I’ll be equally surprised if he doesn’t get the job done. It’s difficult to see EVEN BOLDER turning the tables on him despite the swing in the weights and if NOVABRIDGE again hits what has appeared to be a flat spot in recent races he’ll struggle to reel in the likes of ROYAL BAJAN.

    CONCLUSION:
    ROYAL BAJAN losing his pilot (Freddie Tylicki) from last time to Dubai is certainly no positive and I expect his price will prevent me from having much financial interest though I will consider a back to lay type play.

    Friday Jan 6th 2012 – Wolverhampton 1525 (6f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Volcanic Dust (6.45), Earlsmedic (7.01), Frequency (8.81), Woolfall Sovereign (9.58), Restless Bay (13.84), Caldercruix (14.05), Forever’s Girl (15.18), Captain Scooby (16.66), Night Trade (16.71), Pick a Little (18.00), Hotham (26.72), Street Power (30.82), Alben Star (33.68).

    A really interesting little handicap. The first thing I’m going to say is that I’m surprised the computer output has ALBEN STAR as the ‘rag’. I suspect that is a reflection of the time off the track and the draw today. Having said that, irrespective of the long break I still think she would have a bit to find to win – which is of course very feasible after only 3 runs, the betting tomorrow will give a clue as to what is expected. WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN and CALDERCRUIX probably still have a little more to give and can be expected to be thereabouts where it matters and some formerly decent veterans STREET POWER and HOTHAM add depth to the race. However, I definitely would like to concentrate on VOLCANIC DUST and EARLSMEDIC, both of whom were massive eye catchers last time. VOLCANIC DUST was far too keen last time after a long break yet was absolutely cantering with a furlong to go. Getting absolutely no run whatsoever Liam Keniry was forced to sit and suffer, crossing the line barely off the bridle. It is noteworthy that this represented a step up in form following the lay off and she is still arguably open to further improvement on that evidence. The big question is the trip and that will be what the market will no doubt judge her on – unconvincing previously at 6f – but as stated, maybe the break has done her good and perhaps there is still a hope 6f is not beyond her – she will have to settle better though. If she does she ticks most of the boxes in terms of a bet – well handicapped on recent evidence, form in the book to be competitive with obvious scope to improve further. Similar comments apply to EARLSMEDIC. Previously much much better than this level and his current mark. Missed the break last time and forced to challenge from too far back and too wide. Despite this, he fairly flew home over an inadequate 5f (though the strong pace that day helped) finishing 2nd to a likeable type , Sugar Beet. The step up to 6f today is surely going to have him bang there at the business end. If he retains half his ability of a few years ago he’s seriously well handicapped. FREQUENCY is interesting as I didn’t think he was fully extended to win last time but perhaps not as much scope as some at 6f.

    CONCLUSION:

    EARLSMEDIC and VOLCANIC DUST have more to give on the evidence of their LTO performances and tick all the boxes if the price is right. Any moves for the unexposed ALBEN STAR will be interesting.

    #385809
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    RESULT:

    1st Jimmy Ryan 12/1
    2nd Sherjawy 18/1
    3rd Welsh Inlet 11/2

    A 5pt bet on ROYAL BAJAN laid off leaving a 1/2pt stake for 3pt potential win was essentially sunk when squeezed out at the start. Never really having an 11/8 (SP) chance after that. The model odds of 4/1 forewarned that perhaps that this wasn’t as straight forward as it may have appeared-though I would have expected better. Despite the problematic start and poor position, the run was a little lacklustre to my eye and was over before being hampered a second time in the straight. This arguably came too soon after last week’s exertions and is still perhaps worth another chance. Another feather in the cap of future champion jockey Raul da Silva, winning on JIMMY RYAN.
    RUNNING TOTAL: Staked 3pts: Profit -3pts

    RESULT:

    1st Alben Star 4/1
    2nd Earlsmedic 6/1
    3rd Woolfall Sovereign 5/1

    A real roller coaster this one and I’m left disappointed not to have got on the board. I was really taken with VOLCANIC DUST’s performance last time and I was very disappointed to see people fall over themselves to lay her this morning. A 1pt stake at 12s was doomed by the time the price had drifted to 20s on betfair. 6f probably obviously not ideal, massively keen in the race and folding tamely– prepared to give another chance back over 5f at kempton perhaps. The biggest thing of note was the market itself – very interesting. Being slightly deflated over the misreading of VOLCANIC DUST I was even more gutted 20mins before the off with what I was seeing with regards EARLSMEDIC. I was really sweet on this horse and had managed a bet at 13/2 on betfair which I thought was value. Literally 10 minutes later I watched in total horror as he drifted from that price to 17/1 on the exchange!!! I could never have envisaged he would have been anything other than 1st or 2nd favourite!! The drift was of the worst kind – independent, quick and not a reflection of other horses being backed – very specific (almost ‘knowledgeable’) and in my mind I had clearly burnt my cash. Ten minutes later I was back on cloud nine again! The betfair drift was clearly as it appeared – deliberate and from the know– but in a good way. Opening up at 11/1 on course his price was smashed back down into where my tissue said he should be at 6/1 as quickly as it had drifted out. Stuart Williams has over the years been known as a very shrewd gambling stable, with links to Veitch et al. The betfair drift now looked to me like a deliberate move to spoof the on course markets in order to land a gamble at decent odds. I was even more confident of this 2f out with EARLSMEDIC still travelling sweetly – sure I was going to collect I hadn’t seen ALBEN STAR travelling equally as well behind. EARLSMEDIC done on the nod. Devastated – but admittedly much the best horse won. My words above in my analysis about a betting move for ALBEN STAR being interesting (punted into 4/1 fav from twice that earlier on betfair) coming back to haunt me – the writing was on the wall. When trained by a trainer like Richard Fahey, a long break should be no negative as the model had suggested. I’m left with the feeling once more that a lot of my analysis was spot on – you don’t pay the bills with analysis though and couldawouldashoulda will get boring soon. WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN and CALDERCRUIX as thought beforehand probably did have a little more to offer and ran well. A place lay on FOREVERS GIRL offset 1pt of a 2pt loss on the race.

    RUNNING TOTAL: Staked 6pts: Profit -4pts

    #385904
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    Saturday Jan 7th 2012 – Lingfield 1345 (6f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Glastonberry (5.5), Picansort (5.5), Amber Heights (11.38), Rio Royale (11.92), Steelcut (12.37), Speak the Truth (12.38), Efistorm (16.37), Fantasy Fighter (17.57), Green Earth (17.6), Vitznau (18.88), Captainrisk (19.1), Dvinsky (43.4).

    Lots on today so will keep it brief. PICANSORT desperately unlucky last time have coming in for heavy support – if he repeats that today he goes close but can’t entertain him at the price in terms of a bet in a competitive handicap. Having had runners in this Blue Square sprint series myself last year, I know what desperately tight affairs they are in terms of the handicap – inflated prize money attracting plenty of entries. GLASTONBERRY is interesting me. Can just about forgive the last run – very keen and caught wide throughout, allowed to come home in her own time when beaten, reportedly hanging badly left. Jamie Spencer on board today a big plus and may provide some value at big prices if continuing the progress displayed in the penultimate run.

    CONCLUSION:

    Small win/place (to break even on the place) for 1pt on GLASTONBERRY matched at 16.5 in a very competitive race.

    Saturday Jan 7th 2012 – Lingfield 1415 (6f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Towy Boy (7.08), Amosite (7.87), Paperetto (9.02), Waabel (11.03), Chjimes (12.3), Loyal Royal (12.44), Custom House (12.5), Silver Wind (14.15), Diamond Vine (15.29), Strictly Pink (17.4), Waterloo Dock (17.76), Captain Dimitrios (25.85).

    Like the first division, this heat of the Blue Square hcap series looks horribly competitive. Having said that I can’t see any value in the current first two in the market STRICTLY PINK and SILVER WIND. For that reason, TOWY BOY and AMOSITE make some appeal at the prices. TOWY BOY assisted by the 5lb claim of Raul da Silva (take advantage of this lad’s claim while you still can). AMOSITE backed last time was caught a little wide without cover and ran well only beaten by a handicap blot ridden by the afore mentioned Mr Silva. PAPERETTO also running well in that race from wide (though it seemed to me AMOSITE may still have the legs on him today). LOYAL ROYAL has looked ready to strike recently if only he could start better – leaving yourself as a soldier of fortune with a slow start is not ideal in a race like this unless you are clearly better than the rest – which at the moment I conclude he is not. If I could have convinced myself CUSTOM HOUSE could run as well here as previously at Kempton he may have been a consideration with a jockey back on board.

    CONCLUSION:

    1pt TOWY BOY, 1pt AMOSITE matched at 8.2 and 9.2 respectively against the top two in the market.

    Saturday Jan 7th 2012 – Lingfield 1445 (6f Hcap)

    Model Output

    Colonel Mak (6.62), Googlette (7.57), Oasis Dancer (9.42), Elna Bright (9.8), Seek the Fair Land (11.04), Capone (11.1), Novellen Lad (12.59), Norville (14.11), Piscean (16.84), Five Star Junior (22.2), Fratellino (23.87), Malcheek (32.07).

    Quality handicap by AW standards and as such very competitive. However, win, lose or draw I couldn’t let a horse placed 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup, ridden by Jamie Spencer and trained by one of the most astute men in the business go un-backed trading at 10s on betfair. For those concerned about a lay off – David Barron’s stats in that regard are as good as any and he plundered a few AW prizes in recent times with a horse of a similar profile (placing in the Ayr Gold Cup), Hitchens. Whether an AW test is suitable for COLONEL MAK is another question but I’ve taken the decision there’s enough in the price to pay to find out. GOOGLETTE is another in with a chance, un-exposed and open to further progress. Winning last time despite the race not being run to suit (keen, caught wide) and a stronger pace here today will help. Again worth an investment at decent enough prices. OASIS DANCER looked impressive last time but always difficult to stack up conditions race form in a tough handicap and the suspicion is she is short in the betting. Similarly CAPONE was impressive last time but has never shown form much better than he did that day – form which has been fully accounted for in his price in my view.

    CONCLUSION:

    1pt COLONEL MAK 11.0 betfair, 1pt GOOGLETTE

    #386033
    PacoboyPacoboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 42

    RESULTS:

    1st Speak the Truth 7/1
    2nd Efistorm 7/1
    3rd Glastonberry 11/1

    SPEAK THE TRUTH in good form and can usually be relied upon to run his race in this type of event (ran consistently well in the Blue Square Sprint Series last year). Perhaps a little unlucky last time reversed placings with EFISTORM. GLASTONBERRY had her chance if good enough.

    1pt invested: 1pt returned

    1st Captain Dimitrios 33/1
    2nd Loyal Royal 16/1
    3rd Waabel 16/1

    A return to this course saw a return to form for the winner. Trained by David Evans who won the sprint series last year with a very well handicapped one. No shows from AMOSITE and TOWY BOY (particularly poor effort from the latter). AMOSITE caught wide throughout after being well backed for the second race running.

    Invested 2pts: Returned -2pts

    1st Oasis Dancer 9/4
    2nd Fratellino 14/1
    3rd Capone 7/2

    OASIS DANCER a class apart – one to watch.

    Invested 2pts: Returned -2pts.

    RUNNING TOTAL:

    Staked 11pts: Profit -8pts.

    Tough day with some pretty poor showings and admittedly poor selections. Food for thought – learning to accept losing weeks and months is an important part of this process. Back to Southwell for today……..

    Sunday Jan 8th 2012 – Southwell 1520 (6f Hcap)

    Model Output (Decimal odds)

    Bandstand (4.67), Dancing Freddy (6.75), Avonrose (10.2), Babich Baby (10.9), Elhamri (10.9), La Capriosa (11.7), Steel City Boy (12.12), Clear Ice (16.1), Mother Jones (17.07), Ace of Spies (21.2), Cheery Cat (47.5)

    BANDSTAND ran well returning from a short holiday, chasing a decent enough pace in a better race than this. Expected to go well if that has blown some cob webs away. DANCING FREDDY is consistent and expected to be in the mix if enjoying the switch up to 6f.

    CONCLUSION:

    With a little more possible, a good draw and run style for the track a 1pt win BANDSTAND at 9/2 or better seems a solid enough play (7/2 on the tissue).

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