My Little "Spelling Experiment"

[FlatSeasonLover]

I had a talk with somebody I know from Australia last month and he reckoned it was profitable to back horses blindly that had had 1 run then been off the track for at least 90 days (aka spelling). I tried for a couple of days 1pt win on all selections at best morning price, as this proves better than SP on 90% of the selections, but quickly modified it according to best morning price to

less than 2/1 – no bet
2/1 – 9/1 2pts win
10/1- 40/1 1pt ew
50/1+ 0.5pt ew

After 3 weeks the system is -17.8pts down to those stakes. Should i just abandon this system or fiddle with the staking plan.

Anyone else tried this?

[Artemis]

FSL,

I’m wondering where the logic is in this system. For instance, why would a horse be absent for three months after just one run? Is that just one lifetime run, or is it the first run of any season?

To me, the most likely answer is some kind of minor training setback, although there are several other possible reasons.

Personally, I would give it up.

[FlatSeasonLover]

One lifetime run… theory being it was a little, say green, or wild on the track, wasn’t really ready to race yet, so they have taken it back to the yard and schooled it some more, broke it in more.

But yes I have decided to give it up.

[Author]

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