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So far I didn’t care much about this years BC. But after moving through the cards I must admit that I also got exited about some of the races. These are the last 6 races on Saturday. Not because of the pick 6 which is extremely tough to hit this time with Dyaln Thomas as the only real single imo. No, I got exited about the quality of the fields. Okay, it’s not a world champion ship (mainly US horses and some from Europe and Canada), but high level G1 competitions, very wide open with many longshots.
Generally the new concept didn’t make the BC more attractive imo. They should go back to one day racing without the unnecessary F+M Sprint and Dirt Mile, but a Turf Sprint and a 2 Miles Turf race instead. The Juvenile Turf is a good idea. Also I think one Juvenile Dirt race for both genders would be enough.
But now to the single races and my opinion about the European horses who should profit from the rain.F+M Sprint
The 20-1 morning line for the ex South African mare JAZZY caught my eye. She showed good performances at the highest turf level in SAF, last time at Belmont Park she has won her first lifetime dirt start at G2 level. Also like that she is one of only 3 closers in the race.Juvenile Turf
STRIKE THE DEAL (9-2) is the only G1 proved horse in the race and should be able to carry his class 2 furlongs further. Would’t wonder if the other Europeans in the field, Achill Island and Domestic Fund completed the Tri.I pass the Dirt Mile and the Juvenile Dirt races.
F+M Turf
With more than just one outstanding turf ladies here it will be a hard race. A softer grass will be an advantage for G1 winner PASSAGE OF TIME (7-2) against the top US contenders. If the going is not too soft the constant Frankel trained G1 winner PRECIOUS KITTEN is a must bet at 30-1.
The other Europeans:
All My Loving is one of those horses who is always favorite but never wins. I’ve seen her last race, it wasn’t a strong field and she was disapointing. O’Brien alone can’t make wonders.
20-1 mornigline for Timarwa is a bit unreal, wouldn’t be suprised if she won it . And she has one of the world’s best jockeys aboard.
Simply Perfect would prolly be my choice if the distance was one mile.Sprint
The 20-1 ML for KELLY’S LANDING made my choice easy. Didn’t run since his impressive win in the Dubai Golden Shaheen, but workouts show he’s fit. Frankie is riding again.Mile
Another wide open affair.
The Ex European Mozart son REBELLION (50-1) could be the shocker of the day. Improving and constant horse who also has good forms on heavy and soft going.
Danger comes form EXCELLENT ART (3-1). O’Brien worries about the draw, but I don’t worry about his class to win the race. He finished 2nd behind Europe’s best miler Ramonti in his last 2 starts.
Jeremy (5-1) finished 2nd behind Ramonti as well and 3rd behind Ramonti and Excellent Art another time. Nice horse with some lack of winning the big ones.
Nobiz Like Showbiz is the US horse I fear most, he’s unbeaten on turf.Distaff
Another high class field with plenty of chances.
The horse for the course is PROP ME UP (50-1) with Bravo aboard. Has won her last 3 starts and a good off track form what is surely important for Saturday.
OCTAVE (10-1) should be favorite according to my handicapping. She finished in the top 3 in all of her 12 life starts, 8 G1 races among them!Turf
DYLAN THOMAS is the best horse running this weekend at Monmouth imo.
Very hard to beat. Hope he becomes the first horse who wins the Arc and the BC Turf.
Defending Champion Red Rocks (7-2) seems to be a bit out of form like SHAMDINAN (20-1), but these odds are too high for a horse who finished 3rd in the French Derby.Classic
Strong field, but looks more like a "Who’s the best 3yo in the country and are they better than Lawyer Ron competition" than a world champion ship.
To make it short, my first vote goes to HARD SPUN (8-1). I always liked him, an impressive front runner with a big heart who didn’t let the others pass him in 7 of his 12 starts. Always improving, recently he became a G1 winner, in his last race he has beaten Street Sense and tomorrow could be his biggest day.
George Washington is good for the show effect but honestly I don’t think that he will finish in the top 3. He’s a turf horse imo.So good luck everybody and enjoy the cup!
Thanks Nitro.
I have only looked at the Classic card. My thoughts were that you need a horse with the pace to win over a mile but stays 10f really well (If not 12f). Of those on the card I thought Street Sense looked the most likely winner.
The 20-1 ML for KELLY’S LANDING made my choice easy. Didn’t run since his impressive win in the Dubai Golden Shaheen, but workouts show he’s fit. Frankie is riding again.
Thing is, he’s a massive horse. The straight track in Dubai played to his strengths, but I’m not so sure about Monmouth.
The Breeders Cup just doesn’t do it for me anymore, the Turf races in recent years have been bereft of quality, just one look at this years turf and Dylan Thomas to me should be 1/3 not 4/5, he could win this race running 6lb below his best, it looks no more competitive than a decent Group 3. High Chaparral & Ouija Boards victories were to me absoluete penalty kicks, similar standard of race. Its seems the cream of Europe are just not travelling anymore to take each other on, too many other nice pots around the world as distractions like Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore & Dubai, and also the best of the home contingent run in the dirt races.
Seems we will never see a Turf Mile like Royal Academy’s victory again a race that had a host of Europes top milers in opposition.Surely your not upping a Ballydoyle horse Madman?
I think the equine stars are the real heroes, Cav. The human side of our great sport is overstated, don’t you think ?
High Chaparral beat Falbrav and Sulamani in his dead heat win.
Shirocco beat the likes of Bago,Azamour.
Kalanisi had Montjeu and Fantastic Light in his field.
High Chaparral beat Falbrav and Sulamani in his dead heat win.
Shirocco beat the likes of Bago,Azamour.
Kalanisi had Montjeu and Fantastic Light in his field.
Aopolgise for my oversight of High Chaparral Aidan,
But isn’t that what I am getting at, where are all the challengers in the last few years, its races like the one’s you have mentioned that had me saliving at the mouth and looking forward with relish to the Breeders Cup.
I will enjoy tommorows BC, and have my few bets as always, but I don’t think it will ever be the same as it use to be.Thanks Nitro.
I have only looked at the Classic card. My thoughts were that you need a horse with the pace to win over a mile but stays 10f really well (If not 12f). Of those on the card I thought Street Sense looked the most likely winner.
Just watched today’s races and it looked more like swimming than running.
So I guess the dirt track will be sloppy tomorrow and that should help the frontrunners.The Breeders Cup just doesn’t do it for me anymore, the Turf races in recent years have been bereft of quality, just one look at this years turf and Dylan Thomas to me should be 1/3 not 4/5, he could win this race running 6lb below his best, it looks no more competitive than a decent Group 3. High Chaparral & Ouija Boards victories were to me absoluete penalty kicks, similar standard of race. Its seems the cream of Europe are just not travelling anymore to take each other on, too many other nice pots around the world as distractions like Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore & Dubai, and also the best of the home contingent run in the dirt races.
Seems we will never see a Turf Mile like Royal Academy’s victory again a race that had a host of Europes top milers in opposition.I agree. As mentioned it’s not a world championship, it’s an American championship with some guests. It’s interseting from a betting standpoint because there are so many longshots.
I’d agree that the track is not aesthetically pleasing. Anyone watching that mudbath would be hard pressed to tell it was a World Championship (which it patently isn’t).
Oh stop being so bloody provincial and enjoy the meeting.
I can’t even remember our classic winners. Did Dutch Art win the Guineas? Who won the Leger? Is Great Leighs running yet? What was that horse Frankie rode to win the Derby that was last in the Arc? Where does that run next to redeem his reputation, to come back off the canvas, (as it were).
I must have slept through this season. Where was the theatre? Where was the drama.
There’s a real tendency to bash the Americans. At least they know how to put on a show and it’s a sport to them – not just an ongoing opportunity to watch scantily clad slappers and their metrosexual boyfriends get hammered.
Lawyer Ron. Street Sense. Hard Spun. Tiago. Curlin. Ireland’s own, George Washington. The climax. Tell me that the complex storyline running through this race isn’t getting your heart thumping and your juices bubbling.
Mud or no mud.
The Classic has the best field since 1998-i’m not excited by the rest of the fields but I’d rather be here than at any track in Britain.
They have done a great job renovating this track but it’s just their bad luck that this event wasn’t held 7 days ago. An absolutely perfect weekend and the most glorious day to hold the Breeders’ Cup Steeplechase which was run only about 50 miles from here.
They will have to sit down and decide on a venue policy after todays event. Still to pick host tracks for 09 and 10 they wrote to 20 North American tracks and 11 International tracks asking them to bid to host the cup (earlier this year) The South China Morning Post said that the 09 Cup was a shoe-in for Hong Kong but Breeders’ Cup Ltd have now said that the cup will stay in North America for these years.
But where? There are probably only 3 venues that logisitically can hold the cup. Belmont, Churchill and Santa Anita. And a lot of people are unhappy about next years cup being run on Cushion track.
They need to think about more about the fans as well. It’s all right here if you’re a member of the press-or know someone-and can go to the party on Thursday-or have got $600 to fork out to go to the Charity cocktail reception and see Frankie Valli.
If it’s ok with admin
Paceadvantage forum have given me permission to copy the link to their recording of a BC talkcast. It was recorded earlier so you get yesterdays analysis, but i thought some may still find it interesting
http://www.talkshoe.com/talkshoe/web/ta … 330&cmd=tc
just click on the listen button
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