Munster National 2024

[Venture to Cognac]

Entries………

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/188/limerick/2024-10-20/878773

No market yet, and this one doesn’t always get an Antepost market, but no harm in looking

The Goffer was the main bet last year, but didn’t figure at the end, and never looked like really threatening. I’ll probably cover him sentimentally every time he’s a price this season, but unlikely to be main selection too often. I’m confident he’ll win a decent handicap this year. Figuring out what one though will be tricky.

On the face of it Janidil would have his work cut out, but I just like him, and I’ll definitely bet him if he goes. Just conscious though that he can keep the weight down for Horantzou D’Airy

I stupidly left out Lucid Dreams at Listowel, but definitely more interested this time, while Panda Boy is surely going to step up at some point.

I’d give respect to anything Eric McNamara runs in this, and of his entries, I’d just favour Embittered over Real Steel

Very pleased there’s not a market yet, as I’m also a big fan of Thecompanysergeant, while on his run in The Leopardstown Chase, this looks a decent target for Good Time Jonny, but I have him down as a big player for The Paddy Power Chase back at Leopardstown over Christmas

Last but not least is old favourite Battleoverdoyen. Up a few pounds for his win in The Blazers, but still looks reasonably treated on best form. He’s likely be the EW selection, as I can see him being underestimated

Very happy to see revisit this after Final Decs, but I’ll no doubt buckle should it be priced up.

These two would be the picks right now………

Battleoverdoyen
Janidil

[Venture to Cognac]

Bump

[vikingflagship]

Horantzau d’Airy
Donkey Years

VF x

[greenasgrass]

Ground is currently good but rain forecast and we know what Limerick is like. With that in mind, Favouri de Champdou would interest me most, but he might not be much of a price. He’s the only Giggi entry and has course form of 11. The first of these was the 3m G2 novice hurdle comfortably beating Letsbeclearaboutit. The second was his last start novice chasing last season- after two very good runs against decent horses, then three poor ones in the Nevile Hotels, Ten Up and Irish National…but I think the first of these was just as the yard was about to plunge into a (presumably viral) slump which the horses took time to get over. His mark is 144 and I think he’s got a few lb in hand. I’d back him this minute if there were prices up.

I’m also interested in Grandero Bello, I think he’s a good horse on a nice mark but obviously comes with a health warning and I’d want to see him declared before putting money down (not that there’s a market up).

[Venture to Cognac]

Bump

[Mathematician Betting]

Some extra data for those with an interest in a race trends perspective.
Just early days phase #1 stuff that looks at pure race trends alone.
More work to be done [ by my mate Guy ] by race day.

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Munster National

34 horses in the race

No market at the moment

Who want’s it most ?

Trainers runners

9 Gordon Elliott
4 Gavin Cromwell
4 E McNamara
2 W P Mullins

Willie Mullins only has 2 entered
Expecting only 1 of those to run
But clearly has not prioritised this

Things will be clearer
When we know who runs

Race statistics below

Sunday 2nd October

Limerick 4.15

Munster National

Handicap Chase

Age of Recent winners

7 9 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 6 7
7 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 10
10 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 1-82 record since 2007

The only 9yo winner (2022)
Was unusually lightly raced

28 of the last 30 winners
Were under 10 years old

The 10yo winners were lucky
One won in a really tiny field
One when half of his rivals
Were disqualified in the race

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

19 8 5 6 9 10 6 7 4
7 13 4 3 12 5 5 5

Snapshot of past winners

2023 – 7 Year old with 19 Chases
2022 – 9 Year old with 5 Chases
2021 – 7 Year old with 5 Chases
2020 – 7 Year old with 6 Chases
2019 – 7 Year old with 9 Chases
2018 – 7 Year old with 10 Chases
2017 – 8 Year old with 6 Chases
2016 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2015 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2014 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2013 – 7 Year old with 13 Chases
2012 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2011 – 8 Year old with 3 Chases
2010 – 8 Year old with 12 Chases
2009 – 8 Year old with 5 Chases
2008 – 6 Year old with 5 Chases
2007 – 7 Year old with 5 Chases

Only 1 past winner
Had under 4 Chase runs

That was 8yo Muirhead in 2011
Who had Grade 1 form to his name
He had 3 prep runs before winning

Horses with 14 + Chase runs
Won this race in 2006 and 2023
They won in small fields of 11-12
They both had 2 + runs that year
Both came from the Kerry National

Horses from Kerry’s National
Won this twice 2014-2023
They have a 2-51 record

Horses aged 8 or more
From the Kerry National
Have a 0-29 record so far

Horses from Kerry’s National
Who finished the race last time
Have a 1-36 record
That winner had 4 prep runs
Those with 1-2 prep runs
Have a 0-22 record in this

Past winners
Had the following days absences

32 252 316 10 35 72 224 22 74 25
64 37 17 25 132 172 170 18

Horses absent over 4 months
Won this race 6 times recently
They had 8 5 6 5 5 6 Chase runs

None with more than 8 chases
Won this with a long absence
Those that tried it were 0-26

Horses with 1 run this season
Running within the last 34 days
Have a worrying 0-28 record

Most winners had 4-15 hurdle runs
All had fewer than 16 hurdle races

No horse has won this race
With more than 35 lifetime runs

Almost every past winner
Had 13-34 Lifetime starts

The 6-year old winners of this
Both had 7 previous chase runs

Horses rated 145 or more
Have a 0-16 record so far

No horse aged 8 or more
Won with 11st 5lbs or more (0-12)

——————-
Best Wishes
Mick

[Author]

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