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‘Despite his 10l win the horse was ridden from a long way out, and ridden out right to the line – much as he was in the Triumph.’
The Triumph???
Sorry – Sun Alliance Hurdle!
I think you’re spot on Friggo……only chance they have is to set of like a bat out of hell, hope he gets the trip and try and run Denman into the gound. They should just let him get on with it as I can’t see him having the class or jumping ability to do that.
If he does set off in front I would be putting the big fellow to sleep and let him do things in his own time, put into the race until a mile from home and I think we’ll find The Listner will have cut his own throat by then……….Last thing they’ll want for Denman is for him to get into a slogging match at this stage.
If they hold up to get the trip and give Denman a start they would be as well leaving the Listner in his box.
Are we not wise to treat such a improved performance with a bit of caution until the horse proves to us that this performance was worth the merit we awarded and there was no reason to doubt it?
It wasnt necessarily an "improved" performance at all. He has had one blip in 11 races and won most of them by more than 10 lengths. Simple conclusion from that is that he has hardly been extended (as we have seen of course) and we have no idea whether he was genuinely a better horse at the Hennessy than in the RSA. Easy winning form is often the hardest to judge
Reet. … he may have been "ridden" in the RSA, but he was an inexperienced horse (still is) and given the way he responded, I dont really think thats an issue
This might not be in the right thread, but I’m trying to recall a RSA chase winner who has gone on to hit the heights in the Blue Riband the following year, or in fact win any top races. Looks Like Trouble might have been the last one and that’s going back almost 10 years.
Am I wrong?
aphardy, prior to LLT, the last RSA winner to take the Gold Cup the following year was Garrison Savannah (’90/’91). Prior to him it was Ten Up in the mid-’70s. That’s 3 times in just over 30 years, not great considering the weight many give the RSA as a future GC indicator.
I don’t think Denman will have it all his own way against The Listener. The Listener has proved himself a very decent animal in Ireland, winning last years Lexus comfortably beating Beef Or Salmon and the previous years Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition. It was also a decent run when getting done by BOS in the Hennessy with the previous years Gold Cup third a country mile behind. I also think his latest run was better than most people seem to be giving him credit for. Trouncing a 158 rated horse Mansony ( reappearance I know but it had won its reappearance both years previously) off levels would I have thought merited more positive remarks, after all didn’t something trounce a 162 rated horse in the Tingle Creek last year and now that ones a superstar. Now I’m not saying for one minute that The Listener is as good as Kauto Star, although on true heavy ground I don’t think there would be too far between them, but all the same I think this years Lexus will be very informative of the merits of both Denman and The Listener especially if the ground is heavy. The point I’m eventually getting to is that if Denman wins comfortably I think backers of Kauto Star should start to get really worried especially if it comes up soft in March.
I don’t think it will have any bearing on the gold Cup unless Denman loses……….Beef or Salmon is one moderate animal when it comes to top class races………reminds me of a Mike Tyson comeback…it never seems to quite happen when th chips are down. He’s one bad yardstick to be using.
If Denman doesn’t beat the listner very very easily he won’t be winning any Gold Cup, Kauto would pick The Listner up and carry him and Denman if he is going to be any kind real threat, should be able to do the same. If he doesn’t win, with the amount of hype surrounding him, there will be so many red faces, that anyone flying over the country might think they have shot out the atmosphere and are landing on Mars
Great levelers horses you know.- Total Posts 17716
Reet. … he may have been "ridden" in the RSA, but he was an inexperienced horse (still is) and given the way he responded, I dont really think thats an issue
Clivex
He was having to be ridden to get away from other inexperienced horses.
Pace is his issue, though it won’t show while he’s running and jumping around ploughed fields.Though he demolished em, was not the RSA at the time a weak affair and has not subsequent form shown the RSA a weak affair???
Aces Four and Snowy Morning are the key horses and they havent really shown us what they can do yet.
Aces Four and Snowy Morning are the key horses and they havent really shown us what they can do yet.
I wouldn’t disagree with that statement TDK tbh, however, other key horses According to John, Gazzas Girl, Ungaro have done nothing to enhance the RSA
Not sure what more Aces Four could have done last year post Chetenham bar staying on his feet at the last at Punchestown.
Not sure what more Aces Four could have done last year post Chetenham bar staying on his feet at the last at Punchestown.
Yep DJ, he stays on his feet he beats Offshore Account, Knight Legend etc by a couple of length i reckon
Not that impressive is it and it doesn’t do much to enhance the RSA
As some members have pointed out above, maybe the RSA is a race that gets over – rated
Going back back to 2002, the first 5 home in RSA have in the main not achieved a higher OR than 160 and first 5 home in Hennessey in the main have not achieved a higher OR than 170
Denman could be an exception of course and more detailed analysis is probably needed, but interesting none the less .
Could Mordin be on to something and even more worrying could Simon Rowlands end up eating his hat
Some more interesting analysis this week from Mordin on Turko and Twist Magic
To be absolutely fair, having clicked on the link above I found some of the comments on the website interesting and more in depth than I’ve come across previously on his site. He also seems to have updated it.
I should also point out that his book Betting for a Living was one of the first books I read on the subject (after The Inside Track) and I thought it was an excellent piece of work.
Great levelers horses you know.
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