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A slow gallop usually favours prominent horses and usually results in a bunch finish doesn’t it?
Why were they knackered and strung out like washing? does this not seem strange to you TDK
Though i’m not sure what, i think Mordin may have identified something i’ve missed, reading his article and thinking about it, it has placed a bit of doubt in my mind tbh
You, i, Mordin, reet will not know if that massive performance is correct until Denman either repeats it or runs close to it in his forthcoming races no matter what analysis method we use
Utter rubbish. What do you mean by "correct"? Did he cheat or something?
He best 17 other runners off top weight in a top handicap. Easily….
What could be "incorrect" about that?
Why were they knackered and strung out like washing? does this not seem strange to you TDK
errr no
They were being strung out by an animal who was grinding them into the ground with his sheer power and pace, once he moved up a gear
Thats what happens
]
Utter rubbish. What do you mean by "correct"? Did he cheat or something?
Clive, if you want to treat my opinion in such a way i’m not gonna even discuss this with you
Let the horses do the talking
Why were they knackered and strung out like washing? does this not seem strange to you TDK
Strange indeed. It isnt every day you see a horse pulverise a field like that. That is kinda the point?
Why were they knackered and strung out like washing? does this not seem strange to you TDK
Strange indeed. It isnt every day you see a horse pulverise a field like that. That is kinda the point?
It is’nt TDK, and that is my point too
Are we not wise to treat such a improved performance with a bit of caution until the horse proves to us that this performance was worth the merit we awarded and there was no reason to doubt it?
And thanks for the respectful reply to my question, it is appreciated
If you always wait for every doubt to be removed from a horse, you would probably never believe anything!
Maybe will time will prove me wrong, but I was definitely convinced by what I saw and Mordin’s argument hasn’t altered that view.
If you always wait for every doubt to be removed from a horse, you would probably never believe anything!
I’m never certain when it comes to horses TDK as i think an accurate measure of performance/ability has not been found yet and you can only estimate ability/performance
Maybe will time will prove me wrong, but I was definitely convinced by what I saw and Mordin’s argument hasn’t altered that view.
I estimated i saw a 180 horse TDK and hopefully his next run will go some way to confirming this to me and also Mordin wrong, though i do take on board what the he is stating in his article
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Clive
The Listener is a proven 170 plus horse imo when he has his conditions, his exploits in Ireland last year and this show this
Denman has one massive performance to his name thats says he’s better than the above and the GC candidates, but the rest of his runs are below that of the proven animal above and those other GC candidates, so we need Denman to confirm what we believe
Mordin is just questioning this superiority using sectional analysis, is there anything wrong with that? no imo.
Just like there nothing wrong with reet or anyone else questioning this superiority using their selected method
CharlieD
Unlike Nick Mordin, my reservations about Denman are based on all of his form rather than just one run, as are my doubts about The Listener.
As I said last week, a small field Lexus run on heavy ground will tell us little more about Denman than we already know, except it might shrink his already dubious GC price.
Fwiw, I think sectionals are almost as one-dimensional as speed figures, and take little or no account of either the opposition, or how they raced. That isn’t to suggest they don’t have a use, just that they are overblown as a means of understanding form, particularly given the variety of opposition and circumstances a horse may face in this part of the world.CharlieD
Unlike Nick Mordin, my reservations about Denman are based on all of his form rather than just one run, as are my doubts about The Listener.
As I said last week, a small field Lexus run on heavy ground will tell us little more about Denman than we already know, except it might shrink his already dubious GC price.
Fwiw, I think sectionals are almost as one-dimensional as speed figures, and take little or no account of either the opposition, or how they racedThat isn’t to suggest they don’t have a use, just that they are overblown as a means of understanding form, particularly given the variety of opposition and circumstances a horse may face in this part of the world.Nowt wrong with your method or thinking reet imo
Sectional data is just another measure that you can use if you want, just like speedfigures are a measurement of the a race from start to finish, RPR’s etc are just measurements of the same
You can interpret the info sectionals provide and draw whatever conclusion you want, just like you can interpret and draw whatever conclusion you want from the info you see in race replays and read in the form book
Denman won The Hennessy because of the relentless gallop he was able to maintain. They may have gone slowly for the first half mile but once Sam Thomas let him go on he just didn’t stop, and to take a field like that apart giving lumps away all round makes Mordin’s assessment of Denman and the race as nothing more than the sensationalism to keep himself in the headlines.
Denman produced a similar performance in the Sun Alliance Chase and had them at it from a long way out. Whether his style will be quite as effective against his own stablemate in March remains to be seen of course, but I genuinely can’t see The Listener living with him. Don’t forget Denman has easily surpassed anything The Listener achieved as a novice and for me his Hennessy performance surpassed anything The Listener has achieved since his novice days.
His odds for The Lexus seem to me to be a fair reflection of his chance.
Surely it’s about the way he beat a hennessy field, any horse in a high class race that has the whole field beaten from so far out is a very high class horse.
Regardless of his sun alliance win however, the type of horse he is will always prove more effective on a flat galloping track.
The Listener and Denman both seem to like heavy ground, The Listener especially, so it looks as though the ground will suit them both.
I would imagine that the jockey on Denman will just sit, and sit on Denman and keep Denman in behind The Listener as long as he doesnt get too far in front.
The Listener did well last time out but i do feel Denman will be far too strong for the grey.
The Listener, whilst obviously talented, achieved little of note in winning the John Durkan (second-placed Mansony was returning from a 7-month lay off, on heavy ground and over a trip he’s only raced over twice as a chaser – and lost both times) and any face off with Denman will present him with a very different test.
It’s clearly too difficult to say, with any certainty, how one horse will cope with the other and so any views expressed at this stage are mere conjecture. But we can at least base our opinions on form and fact. Mordin regularly fails to do either, choosing instead to churn out sensationalist nonsense just to ensure his website gets a few hits a month and to make it look like he’s some sort of equine revolutionary on the one in one-hundred occasions he calls something (half) right.
Mordin regularly fails to do either, choosing instead to churn out sensationalist nonsense just to ensure his website gets a few hits a month and to make it look like he’s some sort of equine revolutionary on the one in one-hundred occasions he calls something (half) right.
I think that’s a pretty accurate summing up of what he’s doing these days. I haven’t read him in the Weekender for a while as I grew bored of the same old formulaic ‘systems’ and as others have alluded to on this thread, there is the suspicion that his speed figures are churned out automatically with few checks. Seem to remember him using his speed figures to suggest that Beef or Salmon was faster than Kauto Star around this time last year.
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A lot of people seem to think that it’s simply his Hennessy win that people are basing their ‘hype’ upon.
Might I suggest people watch his R&SA canter from this year again, then say it’s only the Hennessy that has people genuinely excited about him?
TC
Maybe you should watch that ‘canter’ again?
Despite his 10l win the horse was ridden from a long way out, and ridden out right to the line – much as he was in the Triumph.I think perhaps reet is referring to Katchit and his subsequent (mis-placed) hype, TC. (Edit: Perhaps not. Turns out I’ve overestimated reets’ cynicism!
)FWIW, I think The Listener going off in front may well set the race up for Denman. It’s a big ask to run a Hennessey winner (especially one off 11st12) off his feet over 3m, regardless of going. Although I still think 4/11 is more than short enough considering there is such a heavy-ground expert with The Listener’s class in the field.
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