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Mordin on Denman
Seems to think taht the Listener will rout him in the Lexus…and its all based on sectional times
Havent read it right through yet….but sectional times in 3m chases? <!– s:roll: –>
<!– s:roll: –>It’s an interesting article Clivex and i thought to myself when i read it.
If you go slow early, you have saved energy and therefore you should have energy in reserve for an effort later on – the opposition were struggling a decent way out and made to look very inferior by the winner if i remember correctly
It’s a strange one imo
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Agree with him that Denman is over-rated, (On what we’ve seen so far), but can’t agree that The Listener’s lto 2.5m win sets him up for this, no matter how fast he went.
If it’s the usual winter ground at Leopardstown, and Denman takes him on for the lead, I doubt he’ll last 3 miles.I’m sure Denman’s jockey on the day, whether it be Sam Thomas or Ruby Walsh, will allow The Listener to make the running, but will not allow the grey too big a lead.
The 4/11 currently on offer about Denman winning the Lexus is hardly enticing, but I suppose the bookies are not going to take a chance with what most of us consider to be the proverbial good thing.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Mordin has been totally dismissive of sectionals in the past, but bit by bit he seems to be catching up.
Hennessey performance looks right on paper to me, but i think next run is needed to confirm Denman is a 180+ horse and the Lexus is watching brief
Judging the merit of the horse based on the time of one ridiculusly easy win. Typical Mordin nonsense.
Correct. And I’d take his jumps speed-figures with a huge pinch of salt. A couple of weeks ago he was raving about the time Line Ball put up in what looked to me a bog-standard beginners chase at Fairyhouse. Since then he’s been stuffed in the Drinmore and the third was beaten a street at that Cheltenham of the South, Clonmel.
It’s far more likely they moved a rail or something.Judging the merit of the horse based on the time of one ridiculusly easy win. Typical Mordin nonsense.
Is it any more ridiculous than claiming him a superstar after just one run TDK?
I think we need confirmation and if all goes well, his next run should give us a more accurate assessment
Correct. And I’d take his jumps speed-figures with a huge pinch of salt.
Not just his jumps figures. Must have a soild combination of brass neck and leather hide to put such rubbish into print. Guess the money must help, too.
I think you find he has run more than once Charlie D…
Yes he has tdk, but i think we need that performance to be backed up with a similar performance from Denman next time
Now having ploughed my way through it, it strikes me (once again) that he has decided to knock a top horse and then find a theory to fit the argument
Theres no doubt that the Listener is a superb animal and can gallop away quite strongly but obviously any horse that can leave a henessey field for dead in the last quarter of the race under top weight will surely not easily be left behind.
Because Denman hasnt (seemingly) kicked a race off quickly, hardly indicates that hes unable to go pace does it? But thats the conclusion Mordin has appeared to come to.
Clive
The Listener is a proven 170 plus horse imo when he has his conditions, his exploits in Ireland last year and this show this
Denman has one massive performance to his name thats says he’s better than the above and the GC candidates, but the rest of his runs are below that of the proven animal above and those other GC candidates, so we need Denman to confirm what we believe
Mordin is just questioning this superiority using sectional analysis, is there anything wrong with that? no imo.
Just like there nothing wrong with reet or anyone else questioning this superiority using their selected method
Denman has one massive performance to his name thats says he’s better than the above and a GC candidate, but the rest of his runs are below that of the proven animal above and those other GC candidates, so we need Denman to confirm what we believe
Oh come off it FFS
Hes won 10/11. His Cheltenham win was a doddle. How much more should he have won by ?
Sectional times as relevant as form? Never
A minor factor at best
Clive
Denman has ONE massive performance to his name and that is all, the rest of his form is below the Listeners
You, i, Mordin, reet will not know if that massive performance is correct until Denman either repeats it or runs close to it in his forthcoming races no matter what analysis method we use
Regardless – if they went no pace in the Hennessy, surely a wide margin win where the others were stuffed by halfway would be far less likely than if they had gone hell for leather?
Sorry – the logic is as flawed as his ridiculous piece on Cockney Rebel earlier in the year. Remember he would never win another Group 1 race after recording a slower time than a race run on a different day on different ground – well not for at least a couple of weeks anyway …
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