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MOM's racing preview – Royal Ascot – Day 5

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    Friday went well. I knew I needed a big Friday this year with four of the big ones for the week on that day and thankfully Japan (on last week at 4/1 before some top ups across the week) and Ten Sovereigns (laid a few bets for him to get beat) landed. Baghdad at 5/1 in the last was a lovely addition to end the day. On to Saturday now and it looks an easier year than usual in my opinion for the typically hellish final day betting card. There’s one or two who I have to think are overpriced and deserve to shorten before their races. As always, thank you to everyone for reading and any retweets on twitter for these @Georgiemaydell are appreciated. A good gap before the next one of these now (possibly Glorious Goodwood) so hopefully we can end the week on a high note.

    2:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed)
    This opening contest is a complete headscratcher as I am adamant the front two have it between them. I’d make them both odds on if the other didn’t run. The problem is, I don’t really know how I want to approach it. Either way, this is a straight match race between LOPE Y FERNADEZ (6/4) and PINATUBO (7/2) in my view. It’s major potential against proven ability and I can’t split them. Aiden O’Brien has won this three times in the last four years and often sends a good one to this with Churchill and September both well backed before winning so Lope Y Fernadez being their number one after a scintillating debut is eyecatching. When asked about his own horse in the race (Joker On Jack), Wesley Ward mentioned that Aiden O’Brien’s yard ‘think he’s a bit special’ which suggests he could be very good. He looked top notch at the Curragh on his only start and improvement looks certain. Pinatubo’s debut form at Wolverhampton has worked out very well with the second finishing in the same position earlier in the week in the Windsor Castle Stakes which bodes well for his chances. Pinatubo was well-backed before winning in the Woodcote at Epsom and this step up to seven furlongs looks likely to suit. I’ve ended up utilising the multiple first race offers to get some extra value. Paddy Power’s money back if Lope Y Fernandez wins is one for some Pinatubo money. Likewise for Skybet’s money back if second promotion. Betway have been doing money back as a free bet on the first race everyday so Lope Y Fernandez has been backed with them. I’ve ended up with 60% of the total outlay on Lope Y Fernandez and the other 40% on Pinatubo. The best of the rest could be Highland Chief who won a maiden on his only start at Newbury but will need to improve to match the form of Pinatubo and the potential of Lope Y Fernandez.

    3:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
    Space Blues won well at Epsom in listed company but his main market rival (Angel’s Hideaway) was poor that day and a neck win over Urban Icon will not be enough here. The runner-up goes for revenge in this whilst Angel’s Hideaway will prefer this more traditional track. Space Blues will likely prove too good for them anyway but looks far too short for me. Instead SO PERFECT (5/1) looks massively overpriced on the back of some good efforts including a comfortable win in this grade last time at Naas. She has group one placed form and is very consistent. At 5/1 and four places on offer, I think she’s an each way bet to nothing as surely she won’t finish outside the front four in this. Money back for no loss if she places means we can get stuck into her at a huge price. I’d have her nearer 5/2 for this and arguably she should head the market on known form. Happy Power looks another overpriced after beating the older horses last week but his best efforts have come on softer ground and the fast-drying Ascot turf may prove too quick for him. Even so, he’s the choice of Silvestre De Sousa over Bye Bye Hong Kong who drops back to seven furlongs after failing to stay at Epsom. Momkin has been well-backed here but ran no race at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas and will appreciate the drop in class.

    3:40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
    Masar’s belated return after winning the 2018 Derby comes here and he may be too good for this field. However, he is coming off a layoff and will need to be in excellent condition to win a good-looking race with race-fit dangers everywhere. Mirage Dancer bids to give Sir Michael Stoute his 12th win in this contest and looks an improving type typical of his trainer. Fillies have a bad record in this race but the classy LAH TI DAR (9/2) is a group one filly who didn’t handle Epsom last time when behind Defoe. She is taken to bounce back here and overturn the form. Defoe enjoyed Epsom that day and had the run of the race after the field went too fast too soon. Southern France chased home the imperious Stradivarius last time and a repeat of that effort will show him in good stead whilst Communique and Salouen will take each other on out front and make this a fast run race. That would suit the selection and she can show her true self before going back to group ones as the season progresses.

    4:20 – Diamond Jubilee (Group 1)
    Invincible Army has looked a much improved horse this season and won well last time at York. He disappointed last year in the Commonwealth Cup but does seem a group one horse and deserves his chance. BLUE POINT (9/4) bids for the Royal Ascot sprint double after winning Tuesday’s King Stand Stakes. He has a brilliant record here and is arguably better over this trip and surely rates as the one to beat. City Light was a close second last year and ran well in his prep for this which should put him spot on for a big run. The Tin Man is a previous winner of the race and should be in the mix. Bound For Knowhere went well for a long way last year whilst Le Brivido looks set to be outpaced here after a decent fifth in the Queen Anne over a mile on Tuesday.

    5:00 – Wokingham (Handicap)
    Bacchus denied me and half of England a monster gamble last year on short priced favourite Dreamfield who shortened from 8/1 to be beaten by just a neck. The winner goes again here and has likely been laid out for this but his mark may have gone. HEY JONESY (16/1) has been running well in group races but will relish this fast run six furlongs. He’s drawn on the right side to go well and looks clearly overpriced. Danzeno was high class at his best and bounced back to form last time at Nottingham and would be interesting if repeating that effort whilst Spring Loaded loves these races. Perfection was poor last time but is a horse I really like along with Gifted Master who would go close at his best. My second dart in this race is for CAPE BYRON (7/1) who should relish this speed test and can use his ability to stay further to come home with a flourish and run well. I very much fancy Hey Jonesy to run a big one but Cape Byron should also go very well.

    5:35 – Queen Alexandra (Handicap)
    The finale to Royal Ascot 2019 can go the way of CLEONTE (9/2) and Andrew Balding. He’s a consistent type who has run some huge races lately and deserves to win a race of this nature. He’s one with no stamina doubts and the ground is fine for him. Max Dynamite is classy on his day but is very inconsistent and not one to trust. I’m happy to see him head the market as one to take on. Pallasator won this last year but is quirky whilst Black Corton and Younevercall make their flat debuts after some great runs during the jumps season. CORELLI (5/1) is lightly raced but looks talented and looks as though he’d appreciate a step up in trip so must go close if staying this marathon test. He’s my second selection for this to hopefully end the week on a winning note.

    My bets:
    2:30 – Lope Y Fernandez @ 6/4 and Pinatubo @ 7/2
    3:05 – So Perfect @ 5/1 each way
    3:40 – Lah Ti Dar @ 9/2
    4:20 – Blue Point (NAP) @ 9/4
    5:00 – Hey Jonesy @ 16/1 each way & Cape Byron @ 7/1
    5:35 – Cleonte @ 9/2 & Corelli @ 5/1

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    Had Defoe in as per the preview when LTD was out.

    5 from 6 that’ll do nicely

    Ex RubyLightEx RubyLight
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    Brilliant piece of tipping MOM!!! Cape Byron looked very impressive as he won with a lot of authority, considering the size of the field. Not a bad day for Roger Varian and his staff.

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    Outstanding shouts, Middle Of March!

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    Top class MOM, I hope you cleaned up at the bookies too :good:

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