Midlands National 2019

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Midlands National 2019

This topic contains 27 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by BigG BigG 3 days, 2 hours ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 28 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1399582
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14661

    No point going into this in too much detail, with so many of them engaged at Cheltenham, so I’ll just cast my eye over a few of them who don’t have other engagements at this stage, plenty time to look at properly in the next fortnight….

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/84/uttoxeter/2019-03-16/722097

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/midlands-grand-national/winner

    Alfie Spinner – A proper veteran now, but very interesting that he’s been kept in training, and ran well for a long way at Chepstow after wind surgery. Ran well in this last year, and I can see another brave effort here, though perhaps he deserves more than a 3lb drop from then, certainly considering his age 40’s

    Ballydine – Was putting in a big run at Haydock in The Peter Marsh, when he proper clouted one, putting paid to his chances. I reckon he would have been very close at the end, in what was a strong enough renewal. Obvious chances on that run, and he’s a crazy looking price 33’s

    Ballymalin – Another who ran well in this last year, making the frame. Pretty brutal since then, but he was a lot more like it the other week, when Le Reve slipped the pack at Lingfield. He showed a lot more, and just the chance that he’s been laid out for this. Given a proper chance by the handicapper as well 14’s

    Chef D’Oeuvre – He ran a very nice race in The National Trial at Haydock, off the back of a good win at the track before, and if he comes here in the same form, he’s a player. For a moment he looked like winning that day, and there’s surely more to come 16’s

    Dell’ Arca – He’s always looked the type to land a decent pot, and though he’s been a little disappointing, there was nothing wrong in chasing home Chef D’oeuvre when last seen. He won at the track last summer over hurdles, and he just has the look of a plot for this, from a yard who take this race seriously. Very interesting, and shortlist material. Loving the price 33’s

    Folsom Blue – A real old favourite, and though he can be incredibly frustrating, if he traps here, then he has to be taken seriously. Was winning a big pot at Punchestown just over a year ago, before being so unlucky at Fairyhouse. Out with the washing at Sandown last time, before fairly motoring at the finish. He’ll relish every yard of this 20’s

    Geronimo – I threw a couple of quid his way for The Eider, but he swerved that, and he’s of serious interest wherever he goes next. He looks progressive to me, from a yard who are constantly underrated in these types of races, and he could potentially have assistance in the saddle from the equally underrated Rachel McDonald. He’s not quite as big a price as I hoped, but the price is fair, and very definitely one to consider for here or Ayr 25’s

    Midnight Target – She’s always been a very likeable type having followed her closely, and she usually puts it all in, until this season that is. She’s been a little bit flat for me, in races where she should have been bang there. She’s hard to make a case for, and I don’t think this yard would necessarily lay her out for something like this, but still, I’m interested. She’s on a basement mark, but she could just sneak in, and I don’t think she’d disgrace herself at all, for all that this is mile from what she’s used to. I’m just curious as to the face that she’s never been entered for anything like this before 100’s

    Regal Flow – Last years winner, who’s done little of note since. He was having a good spell last term, before landing this, and it’s quite possible that the hike in the weights has caught him out since. He’s creeping back down gradually, and will be within 2 lbs of last years mark. I don’t think he actually been that bad since, with his worst run being last time at at Taunton. That’s definitely a worry, but at current price, was it that bad for a previous winner to be that price. The price looks that big, that there has to be the suspicion that he isn’t going, but at this price, it might just be worth chancing it, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do 100’s

    Not an in depth look by any means, and though many of them could be Cheltenham bound, or in the case of Ms Parfois, possibly heading to Ireland for The Leinster National, then I’m happy to keep it brief with that lot.

    It’s very rare that I would make a case for one so low in the weights, but I genuinely think that Midnight Target wouldn’t be disgraced in this, but I can’t possibly back two of them at 100’s for this. Well, I suppose I could lol

    No, for now, one will be enough. I’m not saying that come the day, he’d be my #1 for this, the complexion of the race will change dramatically, and the race will be screaming out for a second look after Cheltenham, but for now, and a tentative early play, I’m not letting that price go on Regal Flow. If he’s not going, then fair enough, not much harm done, but if he is, then that price is mad.

    My sensible head though says Dell’ Arca, and he could be close behind at 33’s, which looks equally mad, so I’ll just add him as well.

    Dell’ Arca 33’s
    Regal Flow 100’s
    Both Each Way

    #1399812
    Lemons68
    Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 321

    I’ve went with Ballydine here at 33-1 each way, and if it wasn’t for possible Cheltenham targets, then I would also be with Now McGinty, but he’s one to wait on.

    Ms Parfois is a really interesting contender as well, but she could obviously run in Ireland first.

    #1399844
    Bobby Bluebell
    Bobby Bluebell
    Participant
    • Total Posts 202

    Hi Lemons,

    The owner said on Twitter that she would be running in this – that is the plan :good:

    #1399854
    Lemons68
    Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 321

    Thanks for that Bobby, I’ll take the 9-1 for her as well then.

    #1399860
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14661

    Ballydine blue across the boards mate, how much you put on. Seriously though, could have went with him myself, serious chance.

    #1399894
    KevMcAlley
    KevMcAlley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 795

    Ms Parfois & Ballydine the two i like also, 9s and 20s big enough for both.

    Been wanting to follow both all season, especially Ballydine in this who looked to get left behind last time before staying on well so this extra mile will suit.

    #1399913

    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 810

    Sitting on Ballydine 16-1 here. Will wait on anything else.

    #1400094

    Autumnal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 202

    Folsom Blue would be my early selection here, but I will hold off.

    I would have to give Mysteree a chance on his run at Newcastle as well.

    #1402216
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14661

    Folsom Blue makes it, and I’m happy to have him as third string. Elliot and Russell have had by their standards, a quiet enough three days (just the three winners for the yard), but I still couldn’t leave him here.

    Folsom Blue 12’s

    #1402396

    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 810

    Ballydine 16s ew, and Chef D’oeuvre ew 5 places

    #1402399

    strawbear
    Participant
    • Total Posts 215

    Balls deep on final nudge.

    #1402409
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5632

    I’m confident Arthur’s Gift will be a Grand National horse next year. 11/1 to 7 places with Hills I have taken as well as a few win bets at 12/1. The Hills offer is one of the best value bets I’ve ever seen.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1402420

    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 60

    Gone for folsom blue

    Though it is possible hes too slow to win over 4m2f

    Think he needs there to be a 6 mile race

    Convinced this horse will either win this or the Irish national (I’m assuming he will be targeted there not aintree)

    #1402445
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20339

    Big Saturday race
    and Nichols doesn’t run one, can’t be right
    what am I suppose to do in Pats handicap comp now

    Folsom Blue looks the one to me
    well done those on big prices with Ballydine, hope you collect

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1402453

    wasps41
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1084

    Two against the field

    Folsom Blue
    Milan’s Bar

    :good:

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 28 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.