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With only five runners there should be no excuse for horses interfering with each other a la Joshua Tree in the Juddmonte.I go with Arctic the easiest winner I have seen this year. But I am restricted to ATR.( If they don’t win at Ascot i don’t see them)
I am very sweet on John Gosden’s Showcasing. He won the Gimcrack in a fast time, and will be suited by both trip and good ground. His sire, Oasis Dream, also won the Middle Park, and I’m very hopeful his speedy son can do likewise.
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Nice horse showcasing and beat Taajub and Monseuir Cavalir(ran no race)easily enough but Artic hasn’t been extended yet and looks top class.
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On good (or softer) ground Arctic would be a certainty, but with conditions as they are I can’t imagine he’ll be seen to best effect.
Radiohead disappointed behind Awzaan last time, but he still looked full of running at the end of the race and has the best overall form going into this.
Showcasing looked smart at York, but Taajub does the form no favours.
Radiohead for me.
Given the bookmakers benefit that was the Group 3 today I would be very wary of getting involved in this.
Radiohead is a big price so that’s what i’m on. If he can bring some of his Nunthorpe run to the table then 14’s might not look so shabby tomorrow, especially as there should be a good pace.
I backed Showcasing for the 2000 guineas i backed him last time out and already backed him for this race as well.Arctic is a danger but Showcasing for me.
On good (or softer) ground Arctic would be a certainty, but with conditions as they are I can’t imagine he’ll be seen to best effect.
Radiohead disappointed behind Awzaan last time, but he still looked full of running at the end of the race and has the best overall form going into this.
Showcasing looked smart at York, but Taajub does the form no favours.
Radiohead for me.
If Radiohead was full of running at Newbury, how did he get beat considering he was in front over 1f out? He looks like a 5f horse to me. I’d also disagree that Taajub let the form down at Doncaster. The trip probably stretched him and he also raced too close to a strong pace.
Showcasing has impressed me more than any other juvenile this year. I love the way he is powering away at the line at the end of all of his races. He’ll devour the hill and prove too strong for these on his way to becoming Champion 2-y-o.
Radiohead might not have looked full of running at Newbury but there is enough evidence to make me believe that this particular 6 furlongs might be right up his street especially if there is some good early pace, which could happen. Personally I like the jockey switch here and as a beaten favorite last time out, now the longest odds on the board in a race where the competitors are not very far apart yet, will do for me.
On good (or softer) ground Arctic would be a certainty, but with conditions as they are I can’t imagine he’ll be seen to best effect.
Can I ask why anyone would think Arctic won’t be seen to best effect on fast ground? He’s won on soft ground, yes, but I can’t think why he won’t be as effective. I’ve not noticed any pronounced knee action. If breeding counts for anything he doesn’t need it mud deep. Shamardal won on anything from Good To Firm to near Soft.
I’ve done a treble between Lady Of The Desert, Poet’s Voice and Ghanaati. Champagne runners have actually done quite well in the past 14 runnings, 5 placed and 1 unplaced. It’s not as if they’ve been favourites either, Iceman was the only favourite with the other 5 all going off between 8s and 20s.
Lady Of The Desert should win based on the form, the trainer’s record in the race and breeding and I won’t hear of defeat for Ghanaati. The fact that Fantasia and Strawberrydaquiri are 2nd and 3rd favs says it all IMO.
Pays 32/1 and it’d easily pay for all my Longchamp bets so why not.
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Arctic shouldn’t have any problem handling a faster surface based on pedigree, jose1993 – it certainly didn’t bother siblings Hinton Admiral, Shanty Star and Twilight Sonnet – but he’s won too well on soft ground to make me believe that he’s going to be as effective on it this afternoon. He could, of course, simply be a superstar and go in any conditions, but he doesn’t stride out like a fast ground horse and is opposable (in my opinion) on that basis.
As for Radiohead, dj, I’m simply going by memory. As he crossed the line at Newbury his ears were pricked and Jamie Spencer looked to be fighting just to pull him up. Quite why he ran so badly is anybody’s guess, but his Nunthorpe form is still the best on offer in this race (conveniently ignoring the fact that Awzaan beat him last time out, that is) and it’s hard to see Poet’s Voice having the toe to be competitive.
14/1 is too big.
Jose,an old friend of mine once told me that horses will act on most ground once. The second time they resist (knowing the pain to follow).Arctic has never run on firm ground to my knowledge, but on good to firm at Bellewstown.
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There’s a fair bit of truth in that but whether Artic will be as good on this ground or not remains to be seen.
He has run on g/f before as you say and it was his least impressive run but the fact it was his first time on a racecourse I would tend to think that was because of inexperience and not the ground.
Many 2 year olds improve out of all recognition between their first and 2nd run and he has difinitely improved or wouldn’t be here.
No fear with Showcasing on that score and he is another who has shown marked improvement. He was one of the biggest gambles of the season at York taking fortunes out the ring so they must think an awful lot of him as that was a fairly decent race.
In contrast the Mill Reef was most likely not a great race. Aswaan is a decent sort and was a fairly rare 1st time out winner for Mark Jonston. He tends to train them on the racecourse a bit so again he’s improved for each run. My worry is basing his form on the strength of beating Radiohead who flattered to decieve last time. He failed to capatalize on a massive 24lbs weight advantage he had against older horses the time before. The Ascot form simply isn’t working out and I think he’s going to find this his toughest task to date and it’s time to accept he simpy isn’t that good.
Anything Saeed Saroor send to a major meeting has to be respected as very often his horses leave previous form miles behind.Just when you think you’ve got one of his horses sussed and know it’s limitations they run 7lbs better than they ever ran before. However I’m very suspicious of the worth of his York form. Richard Hannon’s Emerald Commander is decent but he’s a long way of being his best and I doubt if AOB’s Viscount Nelson who Poet’s Voice beat at Donnie would be as good a horse as Artic.
Much depends on how Artic reacts on the ground but he and Showcasing both look the class acts here. I would expect them to pretty much well have the finish to themsleves and hopefully Tracey Collin’s charge can come out on top.
5 runners and yet anyone could win it,Radiohead is a big price for a horse with such a lofty reputation,his Royal Ascot run still tells me 6f should pose no problems,Showcasing hits the ground hard,he is nothing like his sire and will stay 1m No problem,Poets Voice looks like he wants a mile already,so i can see something sweeping past him inside the last and it wont be Arctic who again wants further.For me
AWZAAN
ticks all the boxes,i like him a lot and at 7/2 i will take my chance!
Poet’s Voice had some good sorts behind when landing the Champagne Stakes last time. He showed plenty of pace that day and the drop in trip should not pose a problem.
Showcasing is a horse I like a lot and would be unbeaten but for meeting Arcano on his debut. Bred to be fast, by Oasis Dream out of a Zafonic mare, he will not be too far away and should progress into a top class 3YO.
The Godolphin horse will do for me, with Showcasing giving him most to think about.
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