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9/1 with Paddy P, time to get involved
Without Kauto thm? i hope!GET ON as Chappers would say.
Yes without Kauto
Good show thm,but have you played it safe like the King? or as Grasshopper calls being a pussy! by playing e/w?
Yes I most certainly have!!
There’s no shame in it!!
No shame in it at all,we may have found a little crack in the market and we are prepared to fill it with a bit of "Deep Purple",Pussy and all!
- Total Posts 17716
Kauto bar a fall – not much analysis needed on this one. Get the best price you can and thats that. Theres not a horse in de land that cud beat Kauto at Kempton.
king kauto to star on boxing day, if the ground is good then deep purple the main threat, with tartak and schindlers hunt good ew bets. enjoy
4/6 looks fair value for Kauto Star on his record in the race. But whether he’ll be able to reproduce previous form is yet to be proven this term. In my opinion not at his best on reappearance in the Betfair Chase when possibly not fully fit. However, despite Nicholls words, very well backed on the day which suggests he was fit enough. Some improvement on that run can be expected, but it is not certain he’ll be at his best. Almost 10 years old and French breds often reach their peak sooner than their English or Irish cousins. It is possible, if not probable we’ve seen the best of Kauto Star, though will be difficult to beat even on last time out form.
If Kauto Star did run to form at Haydock, then Imperial Commander is an outstanding price at 6/1 (or 7/2 without KS). If not at his best, then an improver, proven at 3m is what we should be looking for. Imperial Commander looks the answer. It is true, he does have an excellent record first time out and has not ran to form right-handed (only two starts that way). But when he ran in the King George and Punchestown the trainer was well out of form, with very few runners running well. Those two runs can easily be forgiven. At 6/1 the price makes it well worth the small chance of him not performing, especially with Twister going so well at the moment.
Maduson Du Berlais usually comes on a great deal for his first run and needs to. Well behind in the Betfair Chase (friendless on the run up to race day) and did not jump with his usual fluency. Convinced he’s best leading or racing wide with a view of the front. In the Gold Cup had horses on both sides and seemed to give up. Goes well on a sharp track, either way around. 8/1 compared to 6/1 Imperial Commander does not look value.
Deep Purple is improving, but still needs to improve a good deal to win this.
Barber Shop is a possibly at the price. Some don’t think he stayed at Newbury, but was with stayer Niche Market two out and only finished just behind that horse at the finished. There is a possibility though he will improve again at slightly shorter.
Nacarat won the Racing Post in the style of a very good horse, but needs to be better than ever and has run poorly this term.
Alberta’s Run was second in this last year, is inconsistent and possibly needs to race prominently out wide, gives up when crowded. Getting plenty of weight when successful at Ascot.
Tartak looked a possible improver at the end of last season. Showed he’s coming back to form when chasing home Deep Purple. Was an excellent jumper as a novice yet it fell apart on reappearance. Far better at Huntingdon but still made a couple of bad errors. Without those would have been a lot closer to Deep Purple. Could be a nice speculative couple of quid exchanges bet on the day.
In my opinion Imperial Commander has a chance of beating Kauto Star and should beat the rest if running to Betfair form. So 7/2 with WH without Kauto Star and 6/1 with, look excellent value.
Value Is EverythingIn my opinion not at his best on reappearance in the Betfair Chase when possibly not fully fit. However, despite Nicholls words, very well backed on the day which suggests he was fit enough. Some improvement on that run can be expected, but it is not certain he’ll be at his best.
Who are you suggesting was backing him? He’s the Crown Jewel in national hunt racing, he would have been carrying an awful lot of joe public money that day, as he does every time he runs, I hardly doubt Clive Smith was banging him off the boards with his inside information, it was the Betfair Chase not a Stuart Williams plot job in the 2.30 at Wolverhampton!
4/6 looks fair value for Kauto Star on his record in the race. But whether he’ll be able to reproduce previous form is yet to be proven this term. In my opinion not at his best on reappearance in the Betfair Chase when possibly not fully fit. However, despite Nicholls words, very well backed on the day which suggests he was fit enough. Some improvement on that run can be expected, but it is not certain he’ll be at his best. Almost 10 years old and French breds often reach their peak sooner than their English or Irish cousins. It is possible, if not probable we’ve seen the best of Kauto Star, though will be difficult to beat even on last time out form.
If Kauto Star did run to form at Haydock, then Imperial Commander is an outstanding price at 6/1 (or 7/2 without KS). If not at his best, then an improver, proven at 3m is what we should be looking for. Imperial Commander looks the answer. It is true, he does have an excellent record first time out and has not ran to form right-handed (only two starts that way). But when he ran in the King George and Punchestown the trainer was well out of form, with very few runners running well. Those two runs can easily be forgiven. At 6/1 the price makes it well worth the small chance of him not performing, especially with Twister going so well at the moment.
Maduson Du Berlais usually comes on a great deal for his first run and needs to. Well behind in the Betfair Chase (friendless on the run up to race day) and did not jump with his usual fluency. Convinced he’s best leading or racing wide with a view of the front. In the Gold Cup had horses on both sides and seemed to give up. Goes well on a sharp track, either way around. 8/1 compared to 6/1 Imperial Commander does not look value.
Deep Purple is improving, but still needs to improve a good deal to win this.
Barber Shop is a possibly at the price. Some don’t think he stayed at Newbury, but was with stayer Niche Market two out and only finished just behind that horse at the finished. There is a possibility though he will improve again at slightly shorter.
Nacarat won the Racing Post in the style of a very good horse, but needs to be better than ever and has run poorly this term.
Alberta’s Run was second in this last year, is inconsistent and possibly needs to race prominently out wide, gives up when crowded. Getting plenty of weight when successful at Ascot.
Tartak looked a possible improver at the end of last season. Showed he’s coming back to form when chasing home Deep Purple. Was an excellent jumper as a novice yet it fell apart on reappearance. Far better at Huntingdon but still made a couple of bad errors. Without those would have been a lot closer to Deep Purple. Could be a nice speculative couple of quid exchanges bet on the day.
In my opinion Imperial Commander has a chance of beating Kauto Star and should beat the rest if running to Betfair form. So 7/2 with WH without Kauto Star and 6/1 with, look excellent value.
I dont disagree with your analysis Ginger and agree that IC is a great bet. That being said Kauto is still the selection even off the back of the betfair form. The "frenchbred’s early decline" mantra has kept the price on Kauto value every time he runs and as long as I back him with belief at evens, he can only ever cost me the stake he has already doubled….. time and time again.
On the same logic IC’s clear improvement can potentially put him in the picture for the gold cup in March and he will be carying my E/W money as he did last year for the Ryanair. A win wouldnt be beyond him and a place should be very much within his sphere.
I’m taking him on this time. Kauto Star has a lot of miles on the clock and for me he could be vulnerable this year. That said he can obviously win this running up to a stone below his very best and it’s more the Gold Cup I can’t see him winning.
An odds-on shot and a second favourite who isn’t as good going right handed equals mucho each way value further down the list and i’m gonna have win and place bets on Barbers Shop and Albertas Run. Both will be ideally suited by the distance/track and I see at least one of them making the frame.
In my opinion not at his best on reappearance in the Betfair Chase when possibly not fully fit. However, despite Nicholls words, very well backed on the day which suggests he was fit enough. Some improvement on that run can be expected, but it is not certain he’ll be at his best.
Who are you suggesting was backing him? He’s the Crown Jewel in national hunt racing, he would have been carrying an awful lot of joe public money that day, as he does every time he runs, I hardly doubt Clive Smith was banging him off the boards with his inside information, it was the Betfair Chase not a Stuart Williams plot job in the 2.30 at Wolverhampton!
Very much doubt it was Clive Smith who backed KS. Often a yard know whether a horse is fit enough (or not) first time up. The word gets out and price shortens. Exactly, this was a major race, the 2:30 from Wolverhampton needs comparitively little money to change a price. I believe Kauto Star was odds against in the morning, to go off at 4/6 (over 10% shift) suggests to me it was more than public money.
Value Is EverythingI dont disagree with your analysis Ginger and agree that IC is a great bet. That being said Kauto is still the selection even off the back of the betfair form. The "frenchbred’s early decline" mantra has kept the price on Kauto value every time he runs and as long as I back him with belief at evens, he can only ever cost me the stake he has already doubled….. time and time again.
On the same logic IC’s clear improvement can potentially put him in the picture for the gold cup in March and he will be carying my E/W money as he did last year for the Ryanair. A win wouldnt be beyond him and a place should be very much within his sphere.
This is the first time the "French bred" mantra has come in to Kauto Star’s chance. Only because he is rising 10 years old. It did not come in to it last year or any other year (too young).
I don’t quite understand your logic Milbear. How can IC be a "great bet" yet Kauto Star be "the selection"?
I myself believe Kauto Star has over double the chance of Imperial Commander. But I don’t think Kauto Star is value to win. Imperial Commander is value, so Twister’s horse is the selection.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
That’s a crock about French Bred I must have read it dozens of times on here alone how they don’t last longand heard it so many rimes on broadcasts even the cleaning lady at Cowdenbeath’s football park knows he’s French bred. He was readily available at evens for the King George last year(SP 10/11) because he was "French bred" and the party was over according to too many people.
That aside who in their right mind would back Imperial Commander at 6/1 when they can get 7/2 without Kauto Star?
It’s a huge risk backing him to beat the best chaser in the world.
First off you would have to hope Kauto was 100% fit at Haydock and if he wasn’t you would have to hope he isn’t going to show the improvement he showed between the 2 races last season.
Over and above that there’s the question of how Imperial Commander will respond to a 2nd race within a short space of time. He’s been well beaten the last twice and his wins have come after a long break.
Sooner or later Kauto Star will have had enough and no longer be the best. Until then there is no such a thing as value in backing anything to beat him at level weights especially round Kempton. Your only chance is if Kauto falls or he has come to the end of his career as a champion.
There never has been and there never will be "Value" in backing losers and there’s thousands of 6/1 shots out there that have realistic chances to bet without backing something like Imperial Commander on a wing and a prayer.
Another point I would like to comment on is your assumption that it was more than public money that shortened him up at Haydock. I think your stabbing a wild guess and pulling that one out your backside and there’s no way of telling if Clive Smith and co backed him or not.
He certainly wasn’t at his best in the 2008 running and was backed down to 2/5 for that. He has started odds on for every race he has run in bar the Gold Cup and I saw nothing to indicate he was jumping out his skin before this years race.
Sure he was longer a week or two before the race he always is. I backed him for a fair amount myself but it didn’t even put a dent in his price.
I think it’s obvious there was no word out for him on the day as his price was barely affected:-
£1000-£1100 £3200-£4000 £1600-£2000 (x2) £800-£1000 £3200-£4400 £1600-£2200 (x2) £1200-£1650 £800-£1100 (x5) £400-£550 £1000-£1500 £600-£900 £400-£600 (x2) £4000-£6500 £400-£650
That’s over 35k in bets and there would be alot more on him than that yet he only moved fraction from 8/11 to 4/6 on the day.
If the word was out as you put it that money alone would have made him 2/5 like the year before in a flash
I’d say from all the evidence available before the race and after it’s as Ruby said "He needed that" and not what you are dreaming up in your head.
Ginger I don’t want to requote again so I will just reply. IC is IMO the only horse with the potential to challenge kauto here, but the key word is POTENTIAL. If kauto comes out and runs just a few pounds better than his betfair effort I don’t see any other horse in this race able to take him on with. That bring said IC needs to improve again from his last run and adapt to a track and direction that haven’t been proven to suit him. How much improvement can we realistically hope for if he takes to the track? Make that decision yourself but if IC is going to turn in a 180+ performance this year it will be at Cheltenham in march IMO.
The value bet is still kauto. I agreed with your analysis of the race but not your interpretation of the value. If Kauto is twice more likely to win this race than IC are you suggesting that rerunning this race 9 times would achieve 6 wins for kauto and 3 for IC? I don’t see it that way. The term ‘great bet’ was incorrect from me, I was referring to my agreement that you had identified the danger – I wouldn’t bet on him here though. Apologies if I mislead.
EDIT: Apologies about grammar and spelling, I post most often from my iphone and the stupid small buttons make me seem iliterate; dont hold it against me
As far as regression is concerned he’s been there and bounced back better than ever. He looked half cooked going to the last in the Betfair last year and his performance in the King George didn’t have a patch on the way he won the race the year before. Come the Gold Cup he came back to his very best with a performance equal to that he put up in the 2007 KG
This season despite being in need of a race he was good enough to beat the best young chaser in the country who most likely was 100% spot on like most of NTD’s have been lately.
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You seem to be better at reading a race than reading a post, Fist
Of course he didn’t regress after last years Betfair Chase, he didn’t run very hard or fast that day and was clearly below his best. This year however, and this is my point, he wasn’t below his best he was at or very, very close to his best (he had to be to win). He is therefore more likely to regress off a big run than a poor run. He will not, I maintain, "come on a ton" but as I pointed out he needs only run to that level to win the KG.
Kauto on my reckoning has run as fast as this years betfair once before and he lost his next two starts (after 4 and 7 weeks).Also, the possible regression relates to the singular run in the betfair, not his age as a French bred.
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