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Have had my bets; Trip to Paris, Preferment, Almoonqith [how to you spell/pronounce that one
] Red Cadeaux [sentimental bet as I’d hate to be disappointed if he won] and The Offer [need rain for that one]….Gust of Wind is my ‘roughie’ bet. Big worry is Max Dynamite. If I get a free bet I might use it on him.The Flemington track raced with severe bias to on pace horses and if more than 1 off the fence on Saturday you hardly had a chance. The rail has been put out 2 metres, hopefully that makes the difference as Saturday was a joke.The winner for me with no bias is the Japanese favourite Fame Game. He shouldn’t have been going around in the Melb Cup as all connections and rider should have been given 6 months for their (trial !!!!) ‘RUN’ in the Caulfield Cup…. Whilst i hate going for a fav in the Cup he looks too good. I think the hardest to beat could be the former French/Dubai horse Almoonqith now with David Hayes here. He beat Dandino easily in the Geelong Cup last week, with a long gap to the third horse. The win was dominant like a carbon copy of Media Puzzle winning the Geelong Cup before his Melb Cup win. For 3rd i like Preferment a Derby winner and Group 1 10f winner with no weight he is unbeaten at Flemington. My other place chance being Hokko Brave the other Japanese horse at around 30/1 and Criterion is a class horse who will race well. There are a few other chances, now i usually wipe the Europeans who havn’t had a run but you know old Red Cadeaux loves it here and that won’t worry him. I know a couple of past winners have been over the hurdles and Max Dynamite 3 wins from 18 starts and 2 over the sticks doesn’t yell back me but his Lonsdale Cup win was very good. Trip To Paris was very good in the Caulfield Cup and a chance. I think you can wipe the O’brien runners, Kingfisher’s last couple have been poor and Bondi Beach only 5 starts been meeting 6 and 7 horse fields, now meets older horses and another 23 of them. So for me it will be
1: Fame Game
2: Almoonqith
3: Preferment/Hokko Brave
5: Criterion/Max Dynamite/Red Cadeaux/Trip To ParisThe race not being shown on British TV this year according to the RP. Strange as they (ATR) have a program from 2:00 AM to 6:00 AM which includes coverage from Flemington plus looking at the Sky TV guide Eurosport are showing it too
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12944324&category=0
Lee
Some pundit over there was very sweet on my outsider horse ‘The Offer’ saying his last race was exceptional so I’m feeling quite hopeful. Then there’s the other outsider ridden by a girl whose brother Stevie [who is Downs] is leading the horse up. I love this race![ And my ‘roughie’ Gust of Wind has beaten Winx in the past.]
“ultimate Melbourne Cup preview” by Andrew Hawkins, one of the shrewdie Aussie crew on the South China Morning Post:
http://racing.scmp.com/freeservice/news/news20151102.asp
conclusion:
>>>>>>>>
The market has determined that the Caulfield Cup is the form race for this year’s Melbourne Cup, but I have a different view.I thought the Geelong Cup was strong enough and that the performance by the winner, ALMOONQITH, had Melbourne Cup written all over it. He has had an ideal preparation and an Australian 3,200m should suit perfectly. He is drawn to get a nice trail and I am expecting him to be right in contention at the famous Flemington clock tower.
The biggest danger is PREFERMENT, who has always looked a stayer in the making but has added a bit of class to his profile this preparation. The Cox Plate run was a complete forgive, as he was looking for further, and he is the first Victoria Derby winner since Efficient who has looked a suitable type for the Melbourne Cup.
BONDI BEACH is definitely in the reckoning as Aidan O’Brien makes his return from Cup wilderness. Yes, there are concerns about how genuine the horse is, but with 52.5kg he will get every conceivable chance and he has the right jockey aboard in Brett Prebble.
The jury is still out on HARTNELL, and while many think that he is racing below his best this preparation, I think he has been ticking along nicely and as long as he doesn’t have to lead, he looks the best value selection in the race.
Next best FAME GAME, who is the obvious choice on paper but is way too short now in one of the most open Melbourne Cups I have seen, while MAX DYNAMITE has an explosive turn of foot but may need give in the ground to show his best.
The chances definitely don’t end there though, with Moonee Valley Cup winner THE UNITED STATES, Lexus Stakes winner EXCESS KNOWLEDGE and even Sydney Cup winner GRAND MARSHAL in the mix.
And of course, there is still the unknown factor of SKY HUNTER, who has been judiciously raced to have him ready for this and Godolphin horses with a similar profile have inevitably run well.
NUMBERS17 – ALMOONQITH
15 – PREFERMENT
20 – BONDI BEACH
6 – HARTNELL
————————-
3 – FAME GAME
8 – MAX DYNAMITE
<<<<<<<<<<<I have backed four in the race….
EXCESS KNOWLEDGE
PREFERMENT
OUR IVANHOWE
THE OFFER
But sentimentally I would love to see Red Cadeaux run well
Our Ivanhowe could be a class act having ran in the Japan Cup last year.
Preferment looks like a stayer in the making.
And the other two are both trained by the might Gai !!I’m afraid I’ve caved in and backed Hartnell, having looked at his race record and seeing how well he stays. I’m fascinated to see what happens form wise with the Max Dynamite/Big Orange/Trip to Paris/Kingfisher/Quest for whatever lot. I read that Trip to Paris’s owner is blind but has been going to the Melbourne Cup for years. Getting nervous now.
I@m not staying up to watch the meeting, but I’ve set the alarm
for 3.50am, I’d hate to miss this.I’ve got my bets on. I took MAX DYNAMITE at 10’s (I could have
taken 12’s but I had spare in my Betvictor account from the
weekend). I also took SKY HUNTER and SNOW SKY, both e/w at 40/1.The ground has come right for MAX DYNAMITE, and both he and SKY
HUNTER have decent draws in 2 and 7, which I think is going to
be vital. Having said that, SNOW SKY is drawn out in 16, which is
far from ideal, but if anyone can work his way through the field,
it’s Ryan Moore.G’day cobbers (or G’morning), and best of luck.
Still not heard from peter the Possum Man on Radio Sport..maybe he’s gone out of business.
Hi Moe, I dont know if you are going to listen to the Cup on Radio 5 live,
but if you’re still about, you might like to listen to the commentry
of the full meeting on an Aussie channel. The two guys who are commenting
on it at the moment are a hoot. You can tune in at the link below if you
want to have a listen.
Good luck with you horses.
Good luck with yours too Nathan, I see we’ve both got Snow Sky.https://radio.abc.net.au/stations/local_melbourne/live?play=true
I’ve been on Sky Sport Radio 1017 tonight;Radio Sport 927 is on downstairs. It is SUCH big thing in Australia…why can’t we have that amount of interest in racing here?? Have made some very strong coffee to keep me going. I’ll check out that link. Quest for More is massively overpriced. I’ve had a 10 pence win on Max Dynamite but I’m fed up of Willie Mullins winning everything. They adore Red Cadeaux over there don’t they; we’ll hear the cheering here if he wins!
Thanks; can get it on the upstairs computer. They are much jollier than the people on Sky sport!
Glad you could get tuned in. I’m enjoying listening to
their Aussie craic. I said earlier I wasn’t going to stay up,
and I had set the alarm for 3.50. But I think it’s the
strong coffee for me too now, it’s nearly half past one,
hardly worth going to sleep.Ohhhhh Dear ohhhhh Dear if anybody backed Max Dynamite in the Melbourne Cup Frankie just made it a ha-trick of poor rides in the last month!!
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