- This topic has 69 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 13 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think if Americain gets a 2 wide trail he’ll be incredibly hard to beat, but more likely than not that he’d be 3 wide I think. He was 3 wide last year but carried a lighter weight, and this year’s opposition is stronger
If this was a 2400m race in europe who would be favourite?
Probably Modun.
Ratings in lbs (approx) which take no account of recent form in Australia.:
Jukebox Jury 117
Americain 115
Dunaden 112
Modun 112
Moyenne C. 106Ok so…
Name Rating TAB OddsJukebox Jury 117 11
Americain 115 5.10
Dunaden 112 8.60
Modun 112 41.10
Moyenne C. 106 48.50Going on that you’d have to say the value on ratings is Modun.
Is he more a euro staying type or a middle distance 2000-2400 horse? If he’s an out and out stayer I’ll pass because they just do not have enough speed to win a race like the melb cup. Need more brilliance. You need something that would be competitive in an arc but has not been given the grandstand.
- Total Posts 17716
AIC
Modun is half-brother to 2 strong stayers, and though he won a poor 12f gp3 lto, he was done for toe (imo) in a steadily run 14f race previously. Should make the frame, but I’d doubt he’d have the killer turn of foot where it matters.Jukebox Jury at $11 is also good value. And I like backing grey horses.
But I think I’d be mad to back two horses that haven’t had a run in Australia yet.
Jeez I’ve got no idea other than I think the internationals this year will win it. Dunaden was 3-4 wide all the way in Paris and didn’t drop out, and his win here last week was very good.
- Total Posts 17716
I’ll go with Dunaden.
Improved this season, though twice thwarted by a steady pace, and should improve again on his already impressive Aussie form.I was on the blower to my Aussie friend last night and he tells me the guy who owns Americain also owns part of Juke Box Jury and something else, can’t remember which (Red Wine).
He didn’t have the card in front of him and didn’t even know Modun was in the race
Reckons Glass Harmonium has no chance and more than half the field won’t get the trip.He is pushing me towards Jukebox Jury which is surprising but says he the one they are tipping, whoever on earth THEY are. Need all the help I can get on this one so I’m backing both him and Modun.
I maintain Modun doesn’t lack a turn of foot. I get more of an impression that he has been slow to come to hand, improved steadily and could shock them all. Probably shock me too if he wins but this race has a definite look of a surprise result ready to happen
Thanks reet I ended up taking Dunaden 50 each way so I tidy win (drinking my 4th stubbie now too woo hoo)
Stats horse wins and, yet again drawn between 7-14. Manighar ran a blinder from a bad draw; one to watch next year perhaps. As for Red Cadeaux..Ed Dunlop one to watch when he takes his horses abroad.
I’m dumb!!! I was going to have a bet this morning but I think I might get refuses since the race was run already
. I thought it was 4pm not 4 friggin am Funny country Austrlia do everything upside down.Huge run Americain, jockey did nothing wrong but was undone by the circumstances and draw, would have won with any sort of luck.
Swinging widest of all in a 23 horse field to finish that well is outstanding.- Total Posts 17716
Another slowly run race, with the whole field within 5/6l of each other turning in.
Little wonder Aussies consider their horses ‘versatile’, when they’re only being asked to race for 2.5f in the top staying race of their year.Can’t knock the race as a spectacle but Red Cadeaux wouldn’t be sighted in a Group 1 in Europe but the standard of horse we send is unlikely to change as long as the race clashed with the Breeders.
While we have sent a couple of very good horses, the trip the different track and style of racing isn’t likely to attract the Frankel’s of the racing world.
That won’t bother our Aussie friends as they can continue to hold the race in very high esteem and keep the tradition of beating off all comers, even if they did fail this year.
My Aussie mates are nuts about racing and when I mention Frankel one openly admits he hasn’t even bothered to watch him on U-tube as far as he’s concerned he’s not in the same class as Black Caviar: Nothing is. and if you want a second opinion their wine is also the best in the world
I had a little on Dunaden at a good price, when I first read of his trip out there, and topped it up a little at a third of the price a bit later. Not because I fancied him that much, but because at the price he was offerd at, I have too much respect for the French – notably Delzangles and one or two others – not to have. Also, his form against Brigantin was decent enough.
But I would have won at least four times as much if Lucas Cranach or Americain had won, instead, their stakes cost me half my winnings on the big D.
I had Lucas in multiples. I think connections must have feared his getting too far behind, and perhaps had him take off too soon. Or maybe he just didn’t stay as well as the first two. I’m confused now about the staying requirements of the MC. Pity about poor old Americain too, swinging so wide around the bend.
Don’t care what the standard of the race is I think it’s wonderful and would give anything to actually be there one day. They were saying on the radio this morning that they used to have it on in the classrooms so the kids could listen to it, and the cup used to tour around schools and places so everyone could see it. Think Racing for Change should take note of a few things like that. Much as a lot of people have a flutter on the National, the whole country doesn’t grind to a halt that day. Great stuff!
That description of the Cup as "the race that stops a nation!", was Mark Twain’s, so it has quite a history.
Re Lucas Cranach, I wonder if any draw was going to be a good draw in a field that size for a horse which is used to coming from a long way back.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.