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Sad to say:<br>We Have a 3* pick today:
2.20 Carlisle  Royal Emperor (14 tips)(4*98)(+£660)…N/R (F/C: 1/6F)
5 out of 8 horses withdrawn because of unsuitable ground…(Gd)<br>
(Edited by Bricoman at 7:34 am on Feb. 24, 2004)
3* Pick:
2.30 Lingfield  Ascertain (11 tips)(2*14)(+£611)…N/R (F/C: 4/5F)Vet’s Certificate…<br>
(Edited by Bricoman at 7:56 am on Feb. 26, 2004)
Brico,
Frustrating isn’t it either no picks or non-runners!?
Regarding non-runners you dont think trainers have got wind of your system and are pulling them out to avoid losing the price do you!!!:biggrin: <br>Ollie
(Edited by Ollie at 6:59 pm on Feb. 25, 2004)
hehehe…I’d like to think so Ollie but I don’t think my fame has spread that far yet. (Big Cheesey Grin)…
After reading the "write-up" in the RP…Skidmark ran a fine race and it may have been a stroke of good fortune that he was pulled…we shall never Know.
NO 3* PICKS TODAY
Brico
We HAD a 3* Pick until the meeting was abandoned.
2.00 Warwick  Grand Finale (11 tips)(5*30)(+£11895)…Abandoned
We have TWO 3* picks today…if Kempton goes ahead.
2.00 Lingfield  Ascertain (12 tips)(96)(+£6296)…WON 10/11F
3.30 Kempton  Calling Brave (10 tips)(4*49)(+£979)…WON EvsF
Never had both picks win in one day…usually one loses…so I will be using Ascertain as my selection.
S/R: 27/35 (77.14%)…Calling Brave Not included.<br>
(Edited by Bricoman at 6:36 pm on Feb. 28, 2004)
Ollie,
It’s been a long time (last winner Feb 15th) but it was worth waiting for…Two winners in one day. (big grin)
That leaves me with a slight dilemma about future selections, whether to back both or not. Many thanks to Barry Denis for tipping Ascertain as his bismark…I’m sure that helped the price.
Brico
NO 3* PICKS TODAY
We have had three FULL months of selections now, so I will update the stats.
27/11 to 30/11  S/R: 3/3, P/L: +3.03, ROI: 101.03%<br>DECEMBER     S/R: 10/13, P/L: +3.77, ROI: 29%<br>JANUARY       S/R:  6/9, P/L: +1.34, ROI: 14.89%<br>FEBRUARY      S/R:  8/10, P/L: +2.05, ROI: 20.51%
TOTAL SO FAR:  S/R: 27/35, P/L: +10.19, ROI: 29.11%
Fact 1… ALL losing bets have been over the jumps.<br>Fact 2… S/R: 8/8 on the A/W courses…which might bode well for the flat season.
I’m sure there are plenty of ways of increasing the ROI as MrE has pointed out… I can see him now rolling about on his ‘puter chair laughin’ his head off. One idea I’ve thought of is to double the stakes after a loser (just once)…or even on an A/W pick. Or like me…you could just simply divide the bank by 20 at the end of each month for your new stake, or even every winning bet.
Bring forward your staking plans my good people…nothing too complicated though coz I’m a bit of a fikkie.
Regards  Brico
Going by the results so far you could try making the stakes larger the bigger the SP gets.
If you take a figure for your max bet, lets say £100. At the moment 7/4 is the biggest price winner – so 7/4 shots would be a £100 bet. As the prices shorten so would your stake:
6/4 = £96<br>5/4 = £92 <br>1/1 = £86 <br>4/5 = £80 <br>4/6 = £73 etc. all the way down to … <br>1/3 = £28
Anthing shorter than that doesn’t yet show enough profitability, but that’s just the SP – I’m fairly sure you can get better than 1.33 on the exchanges for most horses at some point before each race.
That’s just applying the Kelly method to your stakes – if you applied it to the overall betting bank then your £100 would now be worth £996 with a highpoint of £1700 after the first consecutive 10 winners.
Volatile as hell but after a couple of winners you’re only ever playing with the bookies money with the strike rate you’ve got. :)
Urban Dave,
Thanks for an excellent post…you’ve got my grey matter ticking over now.:biggrin:
I’ve just ran your idea through my spreadsheet, using a sliding scale of 20, with 7/4 being the 1 pt stake and 4/11 being 0.05 pt stake with some interesting results.<br>Anything under 4/11 is removed…which is 6 winning and 1 losing bet…not that they would be missed.
OUT = 12.65 PTS<br>IN   = 19.43 PTS<br>P/L  = +6.78 PTS<br>ROI  = 53.59%<br>S/R  = 21/28 (75%)
I think that’s pretty good for a mixture of odds on shots and I might follow this method in March. Of course you can’t factor in the possibility that better prices can be obtained at Betfair, depending on how much time you have to monitor prices but the figures look superb on starting prices.
I think I read somewhere that the "Kelly Criterion" was a load of rubbish (Professional Gambler Website) and it can be proved with a pack of cards and a simple test…I gave up when my brain started hurtin’. :biggrin:
Regards  Brico
(Edited by Bricoman at 6:35 pm on Feb. 29, 2004)
3* Pick Today:
3.10 Plumpton  Don Fernando (13 tips)(3*91)(+£2178)…WON 4/7F
Let’s hope the meeting isn’t abandoned…10am inspection.
Price was 1.89 on BF…mid-morning.
(Edited by Bricoman at 4:29 pm on Mar. 1, 2004)
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