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Brico,
Sorry to hear you’re giving it up as i think it still has some mileage!
Hope your form book study picks up more Only One Mattys
Ollie
Hi Brico…. sorry that its gone "tits up" for you mate but in all honesty, short price betting on the GG’s aint the answer…. I see that Daz is still banging in new systems and going for non h/caps, why, there is nearly always good value to be found in h/caps, so why the hurry to discard  them, even "good" favs can be found at tempting odds (I bet a 4/1 fav on Sat), and it was a good E/W bet, money back if it finished 2nd or 3rd.. I just can’t see why H/Caps are automatically given the elbow, it doesn’t make sense……. don’t give up on systems Brico, but you need to include h/caps if you want good value bets on favs……<br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
MrE
Ollie & MrE,
Thanks for your support and ideas…I havn’t given up on systems completely, I just don’t think this system is suitable for the rolling doubles and I wouldn’t want to mislead anyone into parting with there "hard earned". It may still pay dividends at levels…and I may still use it from time to time…but I think if I have time on my hands (usually weekends) then I will be studying the formbook.
I fancy Capriolo in the 2.45 Font race…6th @ 16/1 today…Spotlight is tipping "Six of One" but my selection is carrying far less weight off a similar mark. At 16/1 it could be the best bet of the day.:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
Sorry lads,should have also posted my Nap (I did do on the Betting Tips section)…Simply Supreme..Won @ 5/2 2F…I managed to put forward the wrong one for the TRF Naps competition as well…:(  …At least I was UP on the two bets.:biggrin:
Regards
Brico
(Edited by Bricoman at 4:23 pm on Jan. 26, 2004)
140 Leicester Special Rate 6/4 f , 10, 35, +826
W 7/4 f :)
Rex
(Edited by RexWayne at 2:53 pm on Jan. 27, 2004)
Thanks for posting Rex…I missed out on a fairly good priced winner (for this system)…drat…drat….double drat. OK by me if you wish to post future selections and keep your own scorecard.
Brico
Rex,
Despite missing the tip (yet again !) delighted to see you’ve posted a successful tip. hope you take up Brico’s offer and keep posting, there is something about this system which makes me feel it will deliver the goods despite the short prices, particularly on the flat where the risks of falls etc are eliminated.
Ollie
Selection for Thursday 29 January
310 Southwell Fall In Line 4/7 f 13, 41 3*, +301
W 1/4 f :)
Rex
(Edited by RexWayne at 5:34 pm on Jan. 29, 2004)
Selection for Friday 30 January
210 Folkestone Our Vic 4/7 f  9, 29,1* +537
This horse is not a full 3* selection because the horse with the highest selections at the meeting is Ranelagh Grey with 11 in the 245.
Rex
LOL Meeting already off
(Edited by RexWayne at 9:35 am on Jan. 30, 2004)
Working Bank: 127.56 pts<br>Reserve Bank: 150 pts<br>Levels: 136.57 pts (5 pt stake)<br>S/R: 18/24 (75%)
2.05 Donc  Diamant Noir (13 tips)(4*30)(+£4850)…Won 5/6F
Held up, headway when blundered 7th, went 2nd approaching 3 out, led approaching next, soon clear, EASILY…:biggrin: …Won by 27L
(Edited by Bricoman at 1:01 am on Feb. 1, 2004)
Cheers Ollie,
Typical! As soon as I stop doing the rolling doubles I get 3 wins on the trot. :(
Let’s hope the strike rate continues to improve…
S/R: 19/25 (76%)
Brico<br>
(Edited by Bricoman at 1:10 am on Feb. 1, 2004)
Hi Bricoman, I like this system of yours ….. you’ve kept it going for a long while now, so don’t throw in the towel or get disheartened with it just yet. You may have changed from the rolling doubles method a little too quickly. I think the most important thing with any system is LSP, because it doen’t matter HOW you stake, you’ll always lose if you don’t have +LSP, the strike rate will not get you out of jail.
If you were to maintain a strike rate of 75% your success failure probabilities will be something like this;
From every 2 bets you will get
0 winners 6.25%<br>1 winner 37.5%<br>2 winners 56.25%
This looks good, but because trials a successive and dependant, like this, horse
A , B , C , D
You get A with B, then B with C, then C with D
That means that your chance of get one double failing relies on 1 in four events for 3 bets, which skews the figures above against you, in the short term!
So, every losing double has a chance of coming up 6.25% + 37.5% = 43.75% of the time.
So, your value threshold must be round about the evens mark to make it pay and that’s providing you can maintain a strike rate of around 75%. And to get a strike rate of 75% consistently you will have to be betting around the 1/3 mark.
I would offer this staking plan instead,
Place 1/4 point on the first horse and 3/4 on the second, in any sequence of two, betting 1 point in total and stop at a winner. Use a betting bank of 20 points and roll the bank value up or down every two bets.
I hope this helps and that I’ve made some sense.
Hi Dave,
Thanks for your well thought out explanation on betting favourites… appreciated!
I’m not disheartened…I have just found another system that takes priority at the moment, involving value betting…:biggrin:
Had a brilliant win today on Coq Hardi Diamand 14/1 @ SP (managed to get 35.00 on BF 30 mins before the start)
I have a problem fitting the time in to run the various scenario’s, ie; rolling doubles, etc. So if I post the selections up and monitor them at levels…it’s a lot easier.
Some mornings I have more energy than others…blame the night shift.:biggrin:
Seriously though, I think I have found the Golden Egg, and it’s so basic…it’s unbelievable.
Regards
Brico<br>
1.40 Kempton  Rosslea (11 tips)(78)(+£1654)…Won 10/11F
Jumped left early, tracked leader 7th, headed 15th, stayed prominent, hard ridden before 3 out, led again 2 out, ran on well flat…won by 3L…:biggrin:
S/R: 20/26 (76.92%)
(Edited by Bricoman at 4:02 pm on Feb. 2, 2004)
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