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Monday 14th January
1320 Fakenham Harringay 2.80 LOST
1pt stake
———————————————————————–Profit/Loss
+0.95pts
Win/Run
1/6
SR
83.33%
Total Profit/Loss
+2.75ptsYeah I slipped him a couple of notes
I bet a few punters at Fakenham wanted a word with him after that.
Tuesday 15th January
1430 Southwell Yankee Storm 2.52 LOST
1pt Stake
—————————————————————————–
Profit/Loss
+0.95pts
Win/Run
1/7
SR
85.71%
Total Profit/Loss
+3.70ptsI don’t think there will be anything for Thursday, but there is a race at Wolvs which is a possibility and I’ll know for certain sometime in the afternoon. Probably around 3pm-4pm.
Any chance of a bit of explanation of your lays Mavrick? The readership is small here and won’t affect your price, trust me!
There is nothing for Wolvs tonight.
All my lays revolve around two basic things really. Getting 2/1 or less about a horse in a race where I think there are two or more other horses that are better over todays conditions.
I compile ratings which I use to narrow the field down and then I get stuck into the form for the remaining selections.
I’ll try and post some notes with the selections in future, but some people might find them incredibly boring
Friday 18th January
1820 Kempton Saviles Delight 2.70
1 pt stake
———————————————————–Profit/Loss
+0.95pts
Win/Run
1/8
SR
87.50%
Total Profit/Loss
+4.65ptsSaviles Delight is a weak favourite. Looking at his form you may come to the conclusion that the drop back down to 5-furlongs last time out was the reason for his runaway success, but he beat very little and the time of the race was certainly nothing special compared with his 6 and 7 furlong efforts. There is also of course the worry that he will not be suited to Kempton.
The two horses, which I rate higher, then Saviles Delight are Dodaa and Lady Hopeful. Both 5-furlong specialists and both can be relied upon to run their race.
The latter has ran some cracking times relative to the grade and would be the stand out horse for me in the race.Win or lose it was an easy decision deciding whether to get involved or not.
Sorry Dessie I was in bed when you posted as I work nights.
I know this is after-timeing, but hey. When I’m backing to win which is extremely rare nowadays, I avoid anything with the word selling or maiden in when it comes to hurdles like the plague.
This was a real pig of a race, but there wasn’t much to oppose the favourite with. When I came to look at the race last night to see if I could lay Monash Lad, there really wasn’t anything else to consider as they all had terrible form and the win last time out for your selection was only average to say the least.
When it comes to weight, I completely ignore it! The only times I really consider it is if the animal is known to not be capable of carrying large weights, or the ground is bottomless and even then it rarely puts me off a selection. I know you meant the official rating and not the weight carried, and on that front he probably was the stand-out horse, but from a form point of view I would have left the race well alone.
Hi Maverick, remember me?
From that site you used to post on. Before I was banned.
You are right they were mainly system buffs. The owner sold his own from the site, so did not want anyone critercising systems in general. As I found out.
Good luck with this Maverick.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHi Ginge. Of course I rememeber. How are you?
I wasn’t really using the site much whe you got banned so I don’t know what happened, but you’re right about them not liking criticism. I’ve got a bit fed up with it all really as there is never much discussion about horse racing unless it’s the Cheltenham festival, and you could count the form students on one hand.
I wish I had found this place a few years ago.
Hi Marb
No worries about posting, the more the merrier.
The race in question looks a rather trappy little affair, but Bahiano’s forecast odds do look a little too big. I couldn’t oppose Ekitmaal because he is a much better horse on the all-weather then he is on the turf and the run last time out would probably be good enough to win here.
Bahiano is the joint fastest horse in the race on my ratings along with Troubadour, but that is over 6-furlongs and I personally think he would prefer a drop back down in trip rather then a step up to a mile, but I am certainly not sure.
Troubadour should be favourite in my opinion and I couldn’t oppose him. Tomorrow’s conditions are perfect for him and I would expect a him to run a really big race.
Fajr is completely outclassed if you ask me and forecast odds of 7/2 seem a bit of a joke. If I laid at bigger prices then I would probably lay him right up to 9/2 with no problem.
Orchard Supreme is also outclassed.
Re Barolo and Markab are unknown quantities and 50/1 about the latter is quite frankly a ridiculous price.
Conclusion
If you just back when you think there is a mistake in the odds then Bahiano is the selection, but that’s not my cup of tea. I really must think that they have the most outstanding chance of winning and all the conditions in their favour before I will back them and I don’t think any of the horses in the race really have that except maybe Troubadour, but there are too many unknowns relating to distance and unexposed horses so I couldn’t get involved.
I hope I don’t put you off anything as my speciality really lies with chases, but that’s just my take on the form.
Bahiano is a professional loser as his record of 2/57 , with 14 places tells you. he’s far more likely to finish second or third and look unlucky than win. Save your money mate!
BTW I’d be interested to know why you think Fajr is outclassed here Mav, having won and placed in 2 Class 2s last twice- I’d love to leave him out of the Scoop 6 if you can convince me!
IMO Fajr is chronically one paced and found about the easiest of opportunites in a class 2 to get his head infront. This is a much hotter contest then the one on the 8th. His only hope IMO is that the rest of the field that have unknown form over a mile do not last it out. That is not something that I would like to base my bet one.
Please do not drop him from your Scoop six though as I would feel a right wally if it was because of me:D
I would not include him though in a million years.
Hi Mavrick,
Really glad I popped in. I was of the opinion that Fajr was an absolute certainty.
Record at Lingfield
111115213
Lingfield. 1m. Field size. 8-10
1151
Baihano, (who has been backed) has never won over a mile in the last two years. Ektimaal’s record over one mile. 0645
I could go on, but you have certainly sowed the seeds of doubt in my mind. Will be interested to see how it turns out.
Cheers. Max
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