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Mares Novice Hurdle 2017

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Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 70 total)
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  • #1287340
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3489

    I have been really keen on airlie beCh for this but it would worry me if lets dance turned up, there form ties in closely with shattered love both beating her but when you take into account first runs of the season etc, its really close

    Wouldnt be surprised to see airlie turn up in the supreme though… arguably would have the strongest form going into it, i taken a few £ at 200-300s for it just incase

    #1287341
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3489

    Isn’t it a bit of a sad indictment of the jumps game that people are discussing a hypothetical match up at next year’s Cheltenham?

    Why aren’t there races before then prestigious enough to attract both horses?

    This race is this fest

    #1287342
    Avatar photoTheGun
    Participant
    • Total Posts 186

    Whoops, wrong thread!

    #1287347
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    When Let’s Dance won the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Leopardstown last month, it opened up the possibility of her triggering a €50,000 bonus offered by the race sponsors should she go on to win at Cheltenham.

    I think it’s brilliant, and well done to Nathaniel Lacy and Partners Solicitors. It’s unusual because the €50,000 goes to the stable staff should Let’s Dance do the business next month, so let’s hope for Nathaniel Lacy and the stable staff that she can win one.

    It does make it more interesting that’s for sure, and the pressure is on to find the right race for her! Maybe we should give the stable staff down in Willie’s a vote, they’ll be keen to pick the right one.

    She’s in good form and is rated 147 now, so with a 7lb allowance in any of those open races like the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett, it would make her very competitive.

    The New Course at Cheltenham, on which the racing on the Thursday and Friday of the festival takes place, would suit her and so she has plenty of options. I would say at this stage the Dawn Run mares novice race on the Thursday of the festival looks the most likely race for her in my view.

    It’s my best guess that it’s the race she has best chance in – and I hope the stable staff down in Willie’s agree! We have not finalised anything yet however.

    I don’t think this choice of race needs analysing too much because Mullins will always choose the easiest option.

    #1287394
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3489

    When Let’s Dance won the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Leopardstown last month, it opened up the possibility of her triggering a €50,000 bonus offered by the race sponsors should she go on to win at Cheltenham.

    I think it’s brilliant, and well done to Nathaniel Lacy and Partners Solicitors. It’s unusual because the €50,000 goes to the stable staff should Let’s Dance do the business next month, so let’s hope for Nathaniel Lacy and the stable staff that she can win one.

    It does make it more interesting that’s for sure, and the pressure is on to find the right race for her! Maybe we should give the stable staff down in Willie’s a vote, they’ll be keen to pick the right one.

    She’s in good form and is rated 147 now, so with a 7lb allowance in any of those open races like the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett, it would make her very competitive.

    The New Course at Cheltenham, on which the racing on the Thursday and Friday of the festival takes place, would suit her and so she has plenty of options. I would say at this stage the Dawn Run mares novice race on the Thursday of the festival looks the most likely race for her in my view.

    It’s my best guess that it’s the race she has best chance in – and I hope the stable staff down in Willie’s agree! We have not finalised anything yet however.

    I don’t think this choice of race needs analysing too much because Mullins will always choose the easiest option.

    Who wins?

    Dont see the point in running airlie and lets dance either would win it, but i guess there different owners, neptune looks a better option for lets dance personally, hope they go that route :wacko:

    #1287505
    Avatar photoInnoko
    Participant
    • Total Posts 55

    Airlie Beach nice and strong in the betting today, a sea of blue on oddschecker…

    I should of cashed out.

    #1287553
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3489

    Airlie Beach nice and strong in the betting today, a sea of blue on oddschecker…

    Good news, lets hope lets dance goes elsewhere

    #1289256
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3489

    Much to my own disappointment, it seems the 50k stable bonus have presuaded them to drop lets dance back from neptune/albert bartlett distances to this 2m1f race strangely, they seemed more confident on lets dance than airlie beach

    Airlie beach definitely runs here (they say) and lets dance is almost certain to go here (they say)….

    And if im right in remembering, airlie will be giving lets dance 2 lbs also

    Guaranteed a run for my money should she remain ok which im happy about atleast, but judging by the amount of times rubys hopped off airlie for something else, im pretty confident he will be on lets dance

    Been backing airlie from 10s,8s,6s all the way down to 2s

    Not so confident now :yahoo: :negative:

    #1289270
    Avatar photoVautour
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    • Total Posts 720

    I feel your pain, Ham. Have Let’s Dance at 33/1 for the Neptune. At a rating of 147 and with her 7 lb allowance she is definitely good enough to win the Neptune.

    Id say Willie and Ruby will want her in The Neptune. As a trainer he’s fairly certain to win The Mares Novice. The Neptune will be a harder race to win with Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf and Monalee potentially lining up. Having Lets Dance in his Neptune line up looks the smarter move. She settles so well that you’d think the longer trip would suit her.

    Neptune
    Bacardys
    Saturnas
    Kemboy

    Mares Novice
    Airlie Beach
    Asthuria

    #1289271
    Avatar photoBen_Bernanke
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2367

    Good old Willie probably keeping us up in the air so boys can get the decent odds, wouldn’t be the first time, certainly won’t be the last.

    #1289308
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3489

    I feel your pain, Ham. Have Let’s Dance at 33/1 for the Neptune. At a rating of 147 and with her 7 lb allowance she is definitely good enough to win the Neptune.

    Id say Willie and Ruby will want her in The Neptune. As a trainer he’s fairly certain to win The Mares Novice. The Neptune will be a harder race to win with Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf and Monalee potentially lining up. Having Lets Dance in his Neptune line up looks the smarter move. She settles so well that you’d think the longer trip would suit her.

    Neptune
    Bacardys
    Saturnas
    Kemboy

    Mares Novice
    Airlie Beach
    Asthuria

    I agree i thought the neptune with her allowance would be a certainty, they seemed so sure that a step up was needed

    But ricci all but confirmed it aswell this morning, and yesterday during the day he said that airlie would have it all to do if she turned up

    Still not the end of the world! Lets dance might not be as effective coming back with airlie tanking along at the front! Im not confident though!!

    #1289309
    Avatar photoVautour
    Participant
    • Total Posts 720

    I feel your pain, Ham. Have Let’s Dance at 33/1 for the Neptune. At a rating of 147 and with her 7 lb allowance she is definitely good enough to win the Neptune.

    Id say Willie and Ruby will want her in The Neptune. As a trainer he’s fairly certain to win The Mares Novice. The Neptune will be a harder race to win with Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf and Monalee potentially lining up. Having Lets Dance in his Neptune line up looks the smarter move. She settles so well that you’d think the longer trip would suit her.

    Neptune
    Bacardys
    Saturnas
    Kemboy

    Mares Novice
    Airlie Beach
    Asthuria

    I agree i thought the neptune with her allowance would be a certainty, they seemed so sure that a step up was needed

    But ricci all but confirmed it aswell this morning, and yesterday during the day he said that airlie would have it all to do if she turned up

    Still not the end of the world! Lets dance might not be as effective coming back with airlie tanking along at the front! Im not confident though!!

    There’s still hope, I think. Both Willie and Rich both said that it looks like the Mares Novice but they both qualified that by saying they will be keeping their options open. Willie will want to keep his absolute best novices apart. While it has been tough to figure out who the best novices are I think you have to assume that Lets Dance and Bacardys are both around the 147 mark so with the Mares allowance Lets Dance is the better horse. I think that Ruby will want to ride the 4 best novices in the 4 novice races and he will have his say. Of the 4 best novices I think 3 of them are Mares and if I was Ruby I’d want the following rides

    Melon – Supreme
    Lets Dance – Neptune
    Airlie Beach – Mares Novice
    Augusta Kate – Albert Bartlett

    Ruby got his way last year when he managed to keep Yorkhill and Min separated; he got his way when he managed to keep Vautour and Faugheen separated. What’s the bets he gets his way again and gets Airlie Beach and Lets Dance separated? That £50K bonus does change things but it will be interesting to see how it pans out

    #1289314
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3489

    I feel your pain, Ham. Have Let’s Dance at 33/1 for the Neptune. At a rating of 147 and with her 7 lb allowance she is definitely good enough to win the Neptune.

    Id say Willie and Ruby will want her in The Neptune. As a trainer he’s fairly certain to win The Mares Novice. The Neptune will be a harder race to win with Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf and Monalee potentially lining up. Having Lets Dance in his Neptune line up looks the smarter move. She settles so well that you’d think the longer trip would suit her.

    Neptune
    Bacardys
    Saturnas
    Kemboy

    Mares Novice
    Airlie Beach
    Asthuria

    I agree i thought the neptune with her allowance would be a certainty, they seemed so sure that a step up was needed

    But ricci all but confirmed it aswell this morning, and yesterday during the day he said that airlie would have it all to do if she turned up

    Still not the end of the world! Lets dance might not be as effective coming back with airlie tanking along at the front! Im not confident though!!

    There’s still hope, I think. Both Willie and Rich both said that it looks like the Mares Novice but they both qualified that by saying they will be keeping their options open. Willie will want to keep his absolute best novices apart. While it has been tough to figure out who the best novices are I think you have to assume that Lets Dance and Bacardys are both around the 147 mark so with the Mares allowance Lets Dance is the better horse. I think that Ruby will want to ride the 4 best novices in the 4 novice races and he will have his say. Of the 4 best novices I think 3 of them are Mares and if I was Ruby I’d want the following rides

    Melon – Supreme
    Lets Dance – Neptune
    Airlie Beach – Mares Novice
    Augusta Kate – Albert Bartlett

    Ruby got his way last year when he managed to keep Yorkhill and Min separated; he got his way when he managed to keep Vautour and Faugheen separated. What’s the bets he gets his way again and gets Airlie Beach and Lets Dance separated? That £50K bonus does change things but it will be interesting to see how it pans out

    Ricci is desperate for winners of course, after the season hes had, she has more chance of winning this than the neptune and the 50k for stable staff will be a factor

    Always the chance ittl change, will wait and see who ruby rides, hes never seemed to think much of airlie from his choices, cant see it changing

    Will be interesting :unsure: and costly.

    Will lay off a chunk now but wasnt planning to B-)

    #1289596
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3489

    Airlie out to 6s :scratch:

    #1289598
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3489

    Had word from one of the owners that shes in top form, will have to pile on to the 6s even though im 50/50 :yahoo:

    Probably something ricci said at his preview night

    Ps why cant i edit posts

    #1289599
    rocky91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 439

    Probably something to do with rich ricci just saying let’s dance won’t be beat in this.

    Airlea beach still has the same chance she did 10 mins ago though.

    #1289603
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3489

    Probably something to do with rich ricci just saying let’s dance won’t be beat in this.

    Airlea beach still has the same chance she did 10 mins ago though.

    Figured so, im surprised there so confident after saying she NEEDS the step up in trip, but willie and ricci will know of course and both said much the same thing, still will pile in again at 6s :wacko:

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