Magnolia Stakes 2009

[Colin Little]

Forget all the middle distance clashes of the summer at Ascot & Epsom etc. The real one could take place on the AW at Kempton on Saturday. There are several very fast, and quite classy horses possibly going head-to-head in the Listed Magnolia Stakes over 10f.

Last year, the race was won by Kandidate, who broke the 10f course record in the process. He still holds that record and is amongst the entries again. Also entered is Ajhar (who holds the 11f course record here) and old favourite Dansant (who holds the 12f course record here, as well as holding the 10f course record at Lingfield).

The entries also include Suits Me, who ran a very good time over this C+D in November, and Titan Triumph, who produced a fast time over 8f at Lingfield in amongst his many wins there. Also entered are Re Barolo, Bronze Cannon, Bon Spiel, Halicarnassus, Whitcombe Minister, Whistledownwind and Expresso Star.

It would be a terrible shame if this race really cuts up, but sadly it probably will. A few ran in the Winter Derby last week, & a couple of others are probably going to Doncaster. Shame, because it would be a great race to watch.

Not sure it’s going to be easy to pick the winner of this. I don’t think this will be just a form thing. Several of these have been on the go all winter, a few have started to look a bit jaded. Two are just back from long-haul foreign trips, & stables like Tregoning have hardly sent anything out this year.

I would have liked to see Bronze Cannon try this 10f at Kempton. He had a good record here as a 2yo (2 wins from 3 runs). His lack of tactical speed was always likely to catch him out at a track like Lingfield. This fairer, more galloping 10f, with a nice long straight, would surely suit him much more, Although a stiff 10f on turf may suit even more. Kandidate also has an excellent record here as well (3 wins from 4 runs).

[halfwaytoheaven]

In my opinion, if Bronze Cannon runs here he wins.

If he doesnt it’s wide open. Bronze Cannon is primed and ready to run a big race and with only the ever-improving Scintillo and the superb Premio Loco in front of him last week in a race that wont have taken anything out of him he’s sure to go well here.

Dansant is the main danger

[Anonymous]

Although Bronze Cannon will probably prove to be group class over 10f on turf, I’d hesitate to back him again in any small-field race on polytrack without some guarantee of a proper pace.
I’d hope he’ll swerve this in the promise of a better payday, further down the line.

[Colin Little]

Reet, your point about pace is a very fair one, When I looked at the entries the only obvious leaders were Kandidate & Suits Me. Their trainers both seem to have worked out that it’s best not to hare off in front though, well not at LIngfield anyway. They have been getting to the front early & then trying to set a moderate pace, then quickening up. Although Kandidate did make all in this race last year, when he broke the course record.

A slow tactical race will not help the "classy" horses, all of whom seem to have plenty of stamina. I’m sure this course will help Bronze Cannon, but he wouldn’t want a sprint, I’m still intrigued by Ajhar, he’s been campaigned as though he needs 12f, but has produced a couple of very fast times over shorter. Despite being classy & having a nice turn of foot, Dansant needs a strong pace. He got beaten at 1/3fav by Suits Me at Lingield (10f) in a slow tactical race (won in 2.09.7sec, compared with his course record of 2.01.6sec). So even he’s vulnerable off a slow pace.

What we really need is to get Richard Hills back from Dubai, pop him on Ajhar & tell him to do it from the front.

[Anonymous]

Kandidate appeared to be used as a spoiler for his stablemate at Lingfield last week, and is bound to be ridden more positively around the track he has a much better record on.
With the dead 8, I’d much rather back him each way at 16’s than either of the front two at around 2/1.

[Colin Little]

Final Declarations:

1 (7) Dansant 5 9-2 E.Ahern
2 (3) Re Barolo 6 9-2t S.Sanders
3 (8) Ajhar 5 8-13 M.Dwyer
4 (4) Alarazi 5 8-13b S.Drowne
5 (5) Bon Spiel 5 8-13t C.Catlin
6 (6) Bronze Cannon 4 8-13 N.Mackay
7 (1) Halicarnassus 5 8-13 T.Culhane
8 (2) Kandidate 8-13 D.Holland

RP BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bronze Cannon, 9/4 Dansant, 6/1 Re Barolo, 10/1 Ajhar, 14/1 Halicarnassus, 14/1 Kandidate, 16/1 Alarazi, 16/1 Bon Spiel.

[Colin Little]

I understand where your coming from Reet. When I first saw the forecast, Kandidate was the one that looked the wrong price, well apart from Bronze Cannon at 7/4. Suppose it may be safer to back him to place on Betfair, just in case there’s a non runner. I’m not sure how I’m going to play this one yet, if at all.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Bronze Cannons far too short for me to justify backing him. He’s already up at 6/4 on the exchanges.

Bon Spiel for me at 16s is too big! I’ll be on him at small stakes

[Colin Little]

Here’s my take on the runners:

Dansant

– Has the class, nice turn of foot, will need a strong pace over this trip, I’m not worried about his penalty, a bit worried this comes only 3 weeks after a run in USA, a concern about whether he will run his race.

Re Barolo

– Has been consistant, but form may have just tailed off a bit. His penalty is not going to help, this will be tough. Can’t see it happening for him.

Ajhar

– I have him as the fastest horse in the race. Stable form is an unknown & he’s taking on classy race fit opponents. He’s one I am trying to avoid getting suckered into backing. I think he’s fast, & he’s got a good draw, but there’s the race fitness & sharp trip issues. Really not sure here.

Alarazi

– Fair form in Ireland before being sold, been hurding, rightly or wrongly, I’m dismissing him for this.

Bon Spiel

– Can’t really see this. He’s held by a few of these on recent AW form. He didn’t do that well in Dubai. He’s got to improve.

Bronze Cannon

– Think that this will suit him. If they go quick though, he’ll have to run faster than he’s ever done before. I’m sure N.Mackay is a decent jockey, but he’s not Moore or Fortune, & BC may need some driving unless we see a different horse than at Lingfield. Love him to win, but certainly wouldn’t want to be backing him at anywhere near 7/4.

Halicarnassus

– A bit unpredictable, but he is good if he’s on a going day. Ran a good race in the Winter Derby from a horrible draw, & I thought he looked really well that day (not that I’m any expert!). He has a bad draw again, but he’s the type that could run well.

Kandidate

– Has won twice at this meeting (Rosebery & Magnolia). Worry that he’s not in the same form as last year. If he tries to make all at a decent pace, can’t help thinking he’ll be setting it up for the likes of Dansant, Bronze Cannon etc. (providing they are at their best). I’m struggling to see how he can win this, but he may primed for his big run of the year.

[Maxilon 5]

Hi Colin, nice work. Just a quick word to say that Ajhar would be better suited to this trip than the 1m 4f Marcus is convinced he stays (

034)

Only run badly once over 1m 2f ( –

2216

at a time when the stable wasn’t firing). The Kingsdown horses look well forward and at 11/1, I can’t keep this one out of the frame. The fussy (disappointing?), Bronze Cannon is the danger.

[Anonymous]

Colin I am with you, Ajhar fantastic value.

[Colin Little]

Thanks for the comments, Max. I’d be happy to go with our judgement about Ajhar’s speed, but first-time-out against horses who have been running in the top AW races & in Dubai, that has got to be a bit of a worry.

Normally I’ve decided days in advance what I want to back, but it hasn’t been the case with this race. My early instinct was Bronze Cannon, but I had visions of a top jockey riding him, going off at 4/1-5/1 & backing him each-way. (Remember he was 7/1 in the morning of the Winter Derby…and got beaten by Scintillo & Premier Loco, Dansant would have taken care of those two), Yes, this course may help him, but I can’t help feeling he’s the wrong price.

After all this effort, I’m leaving this one alone. Pushed into selecting something for fun, think I’d be with Ajhar and Halicarnassus to place, but if the top two perform, the rest could be fighting for one place.

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