Lucky 15’s – Profitable in long run?

[douginho]

Sorry guys, me again. One last tipping thread, a bet type that I think I can make profitable over a long term period (ie a year).

Starting today I will do a daily each way Lucky 15. I will risk 7.5pts (0.25pts unit stake) on each bet. I will give a brief reason for each selection so here goes!

[douginho]

Saturday 31st October

Poker De Sivola 1.50 Ascot (9-1)

– Unplaced
F Murphy always starts season slow but can win nice races early season if he tries to. Poker De Sivola has had a prep run, likes fast ground, has a nice weight and will stay.

Clarietta 3.10 Newmarket (8-1)

– 3rd @ 8-1
This is a drop in class after running in May Hill (G2) last time. Has good level of form and is preferred to the many maiden winners in the line up.

Smugglers Bay 4.00 Wetherby (10-1)

– Unplaced
One of those hunch type selections. Has run many good races in past couple years. Summer break might have done him good and fast ground is ok for him.

Wednesdays Boy 4.25 Ayr (5-1)

– Unplaced
Has course form on soft ground. Looked as if coming back to form last time. Hanagan riding from bottom weight appeals too.

Return = 0.7pts
Loss c/f = 6.8pts

[douginho]

Selections Sunday 1st November

Golden Future 2.40 Carlisle (13-2)

– Unplaced
Stable in decent form and should handle the ground. Has track form on the flat also.

Sherwoods Folly 3.15 Carlisle (14-1)

– Unplaced
In and out performer but ran good race on soft ground in last year welsh national. Paddy Brennans only ride today and trainer in reasonable form so far this season.

Kyle 3.40 Lingfield (6-1)

– Unplaced
Well drawn and up in trip which will suit. Has some track form and is racing from a competitive mark.

Finnish Melody 4.00 Huntingdon (12-1)

– Unplaced
Speculative selection based race being weak and horse being open to improvement in first handicap. Also trainer/jockey combo in form.

Loss c/f = 14.3pts

[billion]

G’day to you

Douginho

I have just spotted your new thread and will watch with great interest.
Lucky 15 has been mentioned a couple of time in "Multiples how to" and although I have never played it I do wish you the very best of luck.
What are you thoughts with regard to larger stakes on the single elements plus a Yankee & reduced stakes for the doubles and a further reduction for the trebles?
Logic tells me with more difficulty in finding 2 winners or even 3 etc varied staking should be the way with a downside of never landing the HUGE one.

Billy's Outback Shack

[douginho]

Monday 2nd November

Midnight Haze 1.55 Kempton SP –

WON @ 3-1

(Should have taken the 5-1)
Hello My Lovely 2.20 Plumpton 8-1 –

2nd @ 8-1

Lake Legend 2.30 Kempton SP –

Unplaced

South Bank 3.40 Kempton 11-1 –

Unplaced

Returns = 4.1pts
Loss c/f = 17.7pts

Lake Legend and South Bank just seemed to lack for fitness. If I had taken 5-1 Midnight Haze loss on day would have been 2pts (which I consider acceptable), but it was 3.4pts.

[douginho]

Hi Billion,

Actually, I was having a read of the Multiples – How to thread last night. Was a good read through. I liked your ideas (and the other contributors) who suggested weighting more on the singles, even doubles and less emphasis on the trebles, accumulators. Perhaps that would prove the correct way to go, especially if you bet win only.

However, my Lucky 15 bet centres around the fact I dont expect to win every race. My hope is to get 1 winner and 2 placed per day. As long as I back horses between 5-1 and 10-1 or so, this should be enough to see me almost break even each day (even keep losses to minimum). The idea then is that the very few winning doubles, trebles and maybe even acca will provide me with large returns that swamp the lots of small loss days. Thats the idea anyway!

I have always liked the multiple bet as it provides the potential for large returns from small stakes. I simply cant go placing £50 win, £100 win bets as it would only take a few losers to leve me broke each month. My bank is limited (say £50-£75 per month) and so I find multiples are a way that I can both make that fund last, but also see the potential for it to grow quick if I hit a winning treble.

We’ll see how I get on, feel free to contribute to the thread if you have any advice. I might need it!

[billion]

The logic is there

Douginho

which ever way you decide to play it and I certainly hope the big ones come along and the sooner the better I say.

I will lurk and watch every day.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

How I was shouting for SOUTH BANK but sadly not to be!

Billy's Outback Shack

[douginho]

Tuesday 3rd November

Cornas 3.00 Exeter (8-1) –

2nd @ 5-1

Bertie May 4.00 Exeter (7-1) –

Unplaced (4th)

Nemetan 4.30 Exeter (8-1) –

2nd @ 12-1

Decameron 5.20 Kempton (10-1) –

Unplaced (4th)

(Almost a good day. I dont mind finishing 2nd, its the 4th places that really annoy. If they get placed I make a really healthy profit on day.)

Return = 3.35pts
Loss c/f = 21.75pts

[billion]

Sorry to but in again

Douginho

but do you know which of the on-line bookies pays the 3 x bonus for a single winner?

Billy's Outback Shack

[douginho]

Not sure mate. I’m only betting via Ladbrokes at double the odds one winner.

[billion]

Thanks

Douginho

at least it is worth bearing in mind. I was about to change my betting because I keep getting just the one winner and then today I got two. I will keep a sharp watch.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Most of the web sites I have visited are quite obscure regarding their bets etc. However I did find Wm Hill also offer Double Odds for a single winner re: Lucky 15 but BETFRED is offering TREBLE for a single winner.

Billy's Outback Shack

[douginho]

Wednesday 4th November

A very tricky day I think!

Sarde 3.15 Chepstow (SP) –

Pulled Up

Eastern Hills 3.25 Nottingham (8-1) –

Unplaced (5th)

Captain Tidds 3.50 Chepstow (8-1) –

3rd @ 9-1

Banjaxed Girl 4.10 Warwick (7-1) –

WON @ 5-1

Return = 6.6pts
Loss c/f = 22.65pts

[douginho]

Thursday 5th November

Another very tricky day!

Roisin’s Prince 2.05 Towcester (8-1) –

WON @ 8-1

Trafalgar Square 2.20 Lingfield (8-1) –

Unplaced

Cut The Cackle 2.55 Lingfield (10-1) –

Unplaced (5th)

Ballymorn 3.15 Ballymorn (10-1) –

3rd @ 7-1

(Its always good when 1st selection wins as the pressure is then off – pity neither of the other 3 could follow suit!)

Return = 7.6pts
Loss c/f = 22.55pts

[douginho]

Friday 6th November

Looks like a tough day again. These selections are not exactly jumping off the page when I look at the racecard!

Tartatartufata 2.30 Southwell (7-1) –

Unplaced

Lennox Gardens 3.10 Fontwell (16-1) –

4th @ 16-1

Deuteronomy 3.50 Hexham (6-1) –

3rd @ 6-1

Forest Rhythm 4.10 Fontwell (10-1) –

Unplaced

(Officially Tartatartufata was unplaced but his stall malfunctioning meant he was never in the race. Not getting a run for your money really does suck!)

Return = 4.55pts
Loss c/f = 27.10pts

[douginho]

Saturday 7th November

Fullandby 2.40 Doncaster (7-1) –

WON @ 9-2

Charm School 3.15 Doncaster (9-1) –

WON @ 17-2

Nenuphar Collonges 3.25 Wincanton (8-1) –

Unplaced (6th)

Mia’s Boy 3.25 Doncaster (7-1) –

2nd @ 11-2

Return = 37.8pts
Profit c/f = 3.2pts

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