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I know it’s different distances and different runs of the race but if Lossiemouth took on State Man yesterday in the Champion who in your eyes would have won ….. I’m Lossiemouth
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Lossiemouth would have won yesterday but I don’t think State Man was at his best for whatever reason, maybe the ground, so that’s not me saying I think she’d beat him if he was at his best, she might do. If Constitution Hill comes back in one piece that’s another matter entirely. Ricci got one bold call right yesterday with Gaelic Warrior but with hindsight they might rue a missed opportunity with the mare.
I think Ricci was regretting it yesterday.
Some commenters are saying she needs more time but sometimes you have to strike while the iron is hot. Who knows what will happen in a year’s time?
If the late Mark Bradstock had taken that view, Coneygree would never have won a Gold Cup.
State Man would have beaten her in my opinion. If you re watch the Champion Hurdle, he won it so much easier than first meets the eye.
He’s also beaten Impaire et Passe handily this season whom I rate very highly. I think Gaelic Warrior has shown just how good he is.Lossiemouth has only beaten Telmesomethingirl, A 9yo with only 1 win in three years 3L. All the other top Mares in the race, flopped on the day.
She can still improve a lot but if they’re to meet at Leopardstown next winter, I know who I’ll be backing.There’s a reason why horses like State Man can rack up nine Grade 1s – they don’t do more than they have to.
He’s a really good horse, but in the shadow of a great (but ill) horse.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“If the late Mark Bradstock had taken that view, Coneygree would never have won a Gold Cup.”
And if Martin Pipe hadn’t taken that view, Gloria Victis would likely not have been killed (not saying it was wrong to run in the GC: he’d had four chase runs that season including a handicap to toughen him up). Coneygree was 8 years old and it was now or never.
Lossie looks like she hasn’t muscled up yet and she’s only 5 (Honeysuckle won her first mares’ hurdle at 6, when she still jumped too high and chaser-y to be a proper champion hurdle horse).
State Man himself is only becoming the finished article now.
She also only had one run in open company prior to the festival (as they didn’t want to gut her in a formative year). As Mike says, she’s still a stone below (half a stone with allowance) State Man. She can probably make that up but it will take time.No doubt somebody will win the Champion Hurdle some day with a 5 year old mare, probably some really precocious muscled up Flat bred that barely gets the 2 miles up the hill and wouldn’t dream of 2 1/2, in an otherwise rubbish year. But I think Lossie went to the right race this year.
Trouble is State Man didn’t run up to that mark yesterday in a million years. He’s much better than a 3.5L beating of Luccia and 11L beating of Colonel Mustard. Its all benefit of hindsight of course but if you don’t buy a ticket you can’t win a raffle and there’s far too much in racing of people ducking and diving and assuming these horses (not machines) will always deliver on the big day. We’ve thankfully had some wonderful examples down the years and this season of connections being rewarded for having some bottle, Elixir Du Nutz for example would never have had a better chance to win a G1 but they didn’t know beforehand Jonbon would jump like a piano.
In a slowly run race (like yesterday) I think Lossiemouth would swamp State Man for pace. Even if he tried to run the sting out of her finish I am not sure he could. It’s not as if he is a very fluent jumper. She should have been in the race yesterday testing out the theories. Perhaps some people thought that if Lossiemouth went that direction then State Man would likely never win a Champion Hurdle, and that was key to the decision.
I believe if you have a horse in very good form you should take the opportunities when you can, particularly against a very ordinary field.
I think it’s mad to almost take it as read that Gloria Victis died because it ran in a Gold Cup as a novice. For the record that was a good Gold Cup, far better in relative terms than yesterday’s Champion Hurdle.
“Coneygree was 8 years old and it was now or never.”
Sorry Green, I don’t accept that. He would still have had a chance in the Gold Cup as a 9 year old and maybe even as a 10 year old, given he was lightly raced.
As Tin Man said, the only horse that could have beaten Lossiemouth yesterday did not run up to his best. Would State Man have beaten her yesterday giving her 7lbs? I doubt it.
As I have said elsewhere, I cannot blame the Mullins camp for playing the system and increasing their chances of having winners. But that is not what top level sport should be about.
The 4 day festival has been a goldmine but it has not been good for competition.
I still think State Man would have won and I am of the opinion that Lossiemouth would not have been ready for that kind of test and would have been 3rd albeit a bit closer to Irish Point.
Does anyone really think that Telmesomethinggirl (who was beaten just over 1L by Zarak The Brave who was 4th beaten 9L in the Champion) when tried at 2m would have been placed in the Champion Hurdle? Lossiemouth was travelling all over her at the last but only put 3L into her at the line despite being given two smacks by Townend.
While she is quick, I don’t think she has the same turn of foot that State Man does, don’t forget he had easily too much speed for Vauban who has won a G3 12F race on the flat, once again people are underestimating how good a horse State Man truly is – his flaw (if you can call it that) is just doing what he has to do to get the job done and nothing more, had it been quicker ground yesterday and they went the usual pace he would have been more impressive.
Lossiemouth will need another year on her back to strengthen (which still might not be enough) and then take him on next season instead. As good as she has looked, she still needs to make a big jump up to be on State Man’s level let alone CH and I think connections made the right call even give the outcome of the two races.
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