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I don’t understand your last few posts Woolfie. Who are you swearing at and why?
(In english please).
Value Is EverythingThis took a bit of finding but you should really watch this Wolfie and then try to understand what the other guys are saying. Pay particular attention from 8.00 on to the end where they talk about losing runs. Hugh explains that he had a losing run of 50 last year and still showed a profit.
This took a bit of finding but you should really watch this Wolfie and then try to understand what the other guys are saying. Pay particular attention from 8.00 on to the end where they talk about losing runs. Hugh explains that he had a losing run of 50 last year and still showed a profit.
Kenh :-
They make very good points but his losing run came in the middle of a long upward trend. It’s easier to battle through when you have reason to be confident in your methods. His system was already showing a healthy profit so he could afford to return some of his profit to the bookie. I usually find the losing run starts after a couple of winners in a new method and never recovers.Ginger:-
I expanded on a phrase used by prof. Trubshawe, ”what the bookies want” I went on to say that what they don’t want is clever individuals finding winners on a regular basis, in other words it suits them if trainers send out horses to lose particularly if those horses are favourites. Similarly when trainers are planning a coup, they become very angry if the horse is tipped in the national press affecting the odds available on the day.This took a bit of finding but you should really watch this Wolfie and then try to understand what the other guys are saying. Pay particular attention from 8.00 on to the end where they talk about losing runs. Hugh explains that he had a losing run of 50 last year and still showed a profit.
Kenh :-
They make very good points but his losing run came in the middle of a long upward trend. It’s easier to battle through when you have reason to be confident in your methods. His system was already showing a healthy profit so he could afford to return some of his profit to the bookie.Well done Ken, you’ve succeeded where I’ve dramatically failed.
Glad you’ve changed your mind Woolfie. Small losing runs are indeed not significant especially if the rest of a punter’s CV is healthy.
Value Is EverythingThis took a bit of finding but you should really watch this Wolfie and then try to understand what the other guys are saying. Pay particular attention from 8.00 on to the end where they talk about losing runs. Hugh explains that he had a losing run of 50 last year and still showed a profit.
Kenh :-
They make very good points but his losing run came in the middle of a long upward trend. It’s easier to battle through when you have reason to be confident in your methods. His system was already showing a healthy profit so he could afford to return some of his profit to the bookie.Well done Ken, you’ve succeeded where I’ve dramatically failed.
Glad you’ve changed your mind Woolfie. Small losing runs are indeed not significant especially if the rest of a punter’s CV is healthy.
I’ve never disputed that obvious point, when you have established that your selection methods are profitable you carry on through losing runs. In the entire graph displayed in the clip, the losing run was insignificant compared to the general upward trend. It would be foolish to abandon it.
The question remains, how long do you persevere with a new method if the winners are rare or absent from your win column?
Hi Sir Harry Lewi
It should help with your long losing run if you back your selections only when they have one of the following form figures for their last 3 runs and are in the first 5 (non-hcps) or 6 (hcps) of the betting.
111 – 211 – 311 – 112 – 121 – 221 – 321 – 421 – 131. If you want to throw caution to the wind you might include
132 – 141 – 113 -122 -212 – 231 – 331 – 411 – 431 – 511 – 521 – 531.
Yes you will have less bets and you will ‘miss’ some good ones; but your object is to reduce the losing run sequence.
Good luckAlan12
Interesting to see this old thread pop up again. I got to wondering what an acceptable losing streak is among contributors in 2016.
Three years down the road, I wondered if chaps had upped their game in winner selection. I admit to making very little significant progress on that score, my methods have not enjoyed prolonged shelf life, it must be said.
Yes but whether the profit/loss is any better is another thing. A few years ago I probably had bigger infrequent wins. Nowadays I seem to have smaller more frequent wins. This year has been profitable though with one major win and a few good months in between. If only there wasn’t a flat season. I would say I have achieved the following :-
Jan – Approx Break even
Feb – Profit
Mar – Decent profit thanks to Cheltenham
Apr – Very decent profit thanks to one big win
May – Loss
June – Loss
July – Loss
Aug – Small Profit
Sept – Loss
Oct – Profit
Nov – Loss
Dec – ?Starting a new method today on the AW, it’s called ”Spot the triers” and is based on compiling a list of those likely to be trying in a given race, a guesstimation narrowed down by filtering yet to be finalized. In the unlikely event of the method turning a profit, I’ll post selections on the forum.
Starting a new method today on the AW, it’s called ”Spot the triers” and is based on compiling a list of those likely to be trying in a given race, a guesstimation narrowed down by filtering yet to be finalized. In the unlikely event of the method turning a profit, I’ll post selections on the forum.
Good luck mate,
Its not easy, them sneaky trainers have been at it for years with hundreds of horses. I would advise picking 3 or 4 trainers from the top 10 prize money list and getting to know them inside out and back to front, learn to spot their methods and how their horses approach a race win. Some are straightforward using distance, going, class, course type. Others are just outright rogues. You will always be at the vagaries of the handicapper, but the good trainers play them almost as well as the punters.
Something has changed in racing the last few seasons….
BUGS! are a bloody nightmare!
More Bugged infested yards i’ve every known! (10+ years)
Richard Fathey runs 100 horses in a handicap
New Trainers sneakily Improving the Un–Improvable
Ground! Weather its FU**** climate change!
Godolphin AW Raid ! blue bloods run for 2k ? but only lose when i back them
Jockeys ‘the Apprentices’ Jesus the next big thing Yeah right until there claims been Drained
Anyway i went punting Bankrupt a few weeks ago and Turned to ‘Virtual Racing’ now!
Interesting to see this old thread pop up again. I got to wondering what an acceptable losing streak is among contributors in 2016.
I’d say 10 losers in a row for myself is about the most I get to, but when I hit near that mark I try to back one or two around the evens mark to get a winner under my belt and boost the old confidence again.
With losing runs what matters is your strike rate and even that is only applicale if continuing betting in exactly the same way as before.
According to the book “betting The Timeform Way”:
If your strike rate is 50% (and you continue to bet in exactly the same way as you’ve done in the past) you can expect an average losing run of 10 once in 2048 bets.
If 40% SR a 10 losing run in 413
If 30% it’s 118
If 25% 71
20% 47If your strike rate is 50% (and you continue to bet in exactly the same way as you’ve done in the past) you can expect an average losing run of 20 once in 2097152 bets.
If 40% SR a 20 losing run in 68378
If 30% it’s 4178
If 25% 1261
20% 434Drone might be able to help to explain the maths.
Value Is Everything
More Bugged infested yards i’ve every known! (10+ years)
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