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I am not a big betting man but Ive been trying to be sensible and actually make an effort not to throw away money for the last six months. Everything was going swimmingly until the flat season where I was a bit apprehensive as while I can read form, pedigree etc, I have a poor understanding of Pace.
I started to back a lot of horses that ran ok but managed to get beaten. Planteur in France, Simeon and Toronado, Van Der Neer (-favourite) at Ascot. It all culminated in me backing Dalkala to be placed in the GP de Saint Cloud and Ektidaam in the Hardwick assuming these were relatively safe bets to run well.
Having consulted my records, Im now 25 bets without a win. Statistically a neat trick.I was just wondering what the longest losing streak others have had. Particularly those of you who take this stuff more seriously than I.
SHL
I backed Toronado at 3/1 before Dawn Approach was in the betting for the St James Palace stakes so I’m counting that as a morale victory. Patience and discipline are needed, I wasn’t over confident about Animal Kingdom but got sucked in with a special offer. I focus more on favourites or those near the top of the market so don’t suffer too many long losing streaks but you have to keep faith in your ability to spot a winner.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I backed Toronado at 3/1 before Dawn Approach was in the betting for the St James Palace stakes so I’m counting that as a morale victory. Patience and discipline are needed, I wasn’t over confident about Animal Kingdom but got sucked in with a special offer. I focus more on favourites or those near the top of the market so don’t suffer too many long losing streaks but you have to keep faith in your ability to spot a winner.
Question Nathan is how do you spot the difference between ability and luck without gong broke. I have focused on these shorter priced horses much of the time but have won most of my money on a couple of fancy priced ones. Let me give you a conundrum. I have never backed the winner of the Supreme/Champion hurdle/Gold cup at Cheltenham inspite of all the form lines available to me. In contrast I have backed the Cheltenham bumper winner 4 times in the past ten years including some at fancy prices.
I would like to think therefore I have ability to spot the winner of that type of race but logic tells me this is luck since as the data associated with a bumper horse is always less complete than other races and there has to be more conjecture.
SHL
I backed Toronado at 3/1 before Dawn Approach was in the betting for the St James Palace stakes so I’m counting that as a morale victory. Patience and discipline are needed, I wasn’t over confident about Animal Kingdom but got sucked in with a special offer. I focus more on favourites or those near the top of the market so don’t suffer too many long losing streaks but you have to keep faith in your ability to spot a winner.
Question Nathan is how do you spot the difference between ability and luck without gong broke. I have focused on these shorter priced horses much of the time but have won most of my money on a couple of fancy priced ones. Let me give you a conundrum. I have never backed the winner of the Supreme/Champion hurdle/Gold cup at Cheltenham inspite of all the form lines available to me. In contrast I have backed the Cheltenham bumper winner 4 times in the past ten years including some at fancy prices.
I would like to think therefore I have ability to spot the winner of that type of race but logic tells me this is luck since as the data associated with a bumper horse is always less complete than other races and there has to be more conjecture.
SHL
Having consulted my records, Im now 25 bets without a win. Statistically a neat trick.
I was just wondering what the longest losing streak others have had. Particularly those of you who take this stuff more seriously than I.
Sorry to P*ss on your fireworks Sir Harry but your 25 losing bets is one less than my 26 at Royal Ascot! Its a once a year meeting I
enjoy but its very difficult to gauge form for lightly raced 2yo’s,some of those races like the ‘Norfolk’,’Coventry’,’Queen Mary’ ‘Albany’ etc have a plethora of once/twice raced juveniles who are totally unexposed.The Handicaps are a nightmare too so what chance have we got? My banker of the whole week was a horse I knew was a Gold cup horse but still got beat by Her Majesty!Thats racing and we love it really!
Don’t worry Sir Harry, your losing run is absolutely normal!
Last time I was betting seriously (June to October 2009), in a total of 1505 bets I had a worst losing run of
37
, even though my average winning bet price was only 4.3/1. I calculated the chances of that happening at any given start point of bets as 0.044% or 1 in 2272. So whilst it sounds freakish, over an extended period of bets such as mine it is perfectly possible.
Could you imagine tipping someone 37 losers at average odds of less than 9-2 and then telling them you are a knowledgeable punter? (Nb. the losers could have averaged bigger odds than that, but the point remains).
Anyone who wants to be even a half-serious punter needs to understand the potential for such extended losing-runs and their concomitant effect on starting banks. I do think it’s something most people grossly underestimate.
Mike
Hi SirHarryLewis as my late dad pointed out, its all luck. No matter how small the luck element is, its still there. When I did keep track of my bets my losing streaks were longer than my winning ones. I do remember betting on the Scottish Grand National winner IRIS DE BALME and getting a 100/1 for it, then I had a losing streak for over a year before my next winner.
I am not a big betting man but Ive been trying to be sensible and actually make an effort not to throw away money for the last six months. Everything was going swimmingly until the flat season where I was a bit apprehensive as while I can read form, pedigree etc, I have a poor understanding of Pace.
I started to back a lot of horses that ran ok but managed to get beaten. Planteur in France, Simeon and Toronado, Van Der Neer (-favourite) at Ascot. It all culminated in me backing Dalkala to be placed in the GP de Saint Cloud and Ektidaam in the Hardwick assuming these were relatively safe bets to run well.
Having consulted my records, Im now 25 bets without a win. Statistically a neat trick.I was just wondering what the longest losing streak others have had. Particularly those of you who take this stuff more seriously than I.
SHL,
Nobody knows for sure whether a losing run is relevent or not, still less so without knowing the punter’s average strike rate. But (if you wish) it is possible to come to a fairer opinion. Fact is even the best punters should expect long losing runs.According to "Betting The Timeform Way":
A punter with a 40% strike rate (over a long period of time) can expect a losing run of
25
to start on average once in 879,344 races.
Someone with a 30% strike rate once on average in 24,856 races.
For 20% once in 1,323.
16.67% is 572.However, because of much greater competition during Royal Ascot – most punters average price taken will be much larger than their usual "average" price. ie If all of a punter’s betting were done in Festivals the strike rate would be less than it would be betting at other times. So losing runs are more likely to occur during Festivals.
Losing runs can also effect confidence which in turn could alter how a punter works out their selection/s; depending on the punter’s mind set. Subconciously either wanting to back a short priced horse – for a good chance of winning; or big price – for the chance of winning a lot of money back.
Without knowing your strike rate SHL… Considering the prices taken I would not consider a 25 bet losing run at all abnormal.
My advice would be to take a little time off, examine if you are doing something differently than usual. If not – it is probably just one of those expected losing runs.
Value Is EverythingA lot depends on what sort of prices you are taking – 20+ losing favourites wouldn’t be so good. Just checked and my worse losing runs this season are around 12 to 14. I think they quite often coincide with periods of unsettled weather. Apparantly, Pricewise had 0/32 at Ascot. I don’t but some people still think the man’s a genius.
As regards the horses mentioned in your original post these are relatively exposed types rather than the bumper horses you have had success with. Why not concentrate on this successful area? I would say there is a lot less luck involved in picking bumper winners as opposed to a 20-30 runner sprint handicap full of exposed horses. More often than not it is just about who performs/has the luck in running on the day.
25 is not an especially long streak at all, despite being incredibly frustrating when it happens to you.
These streaks are inevitable, whether you are good, mediocre or bad at the betting medium.
At the stakes i play for poker, i would state confidently i am a top 5% player within the competition. Yet, in the past 4k hands (tiny sample size) i am down over 15 buy in’s. What is somewhat unusual is my all in expected value is actually around the same as my total loss over the sample size(usually long losing streaks are well below your expected winnings, naturally, and often a during a large losing streak i should have been profitable in expected value during that time frame). I feel i’ve played quite well outside of a very small stretch during those 4k hands inspite of my poor expected value. I just happened to run into the top % of opponents range regularly, just another form of variables (word luck sucks).
The point is, these streaks are unavoidable. Poker is a different medium to horse racing, but given the games i play it is possible to be all in pre-flop with the best possible starting hand and only have 55-60% equity versus one villain, it is vital to maintain perspective. I don’t gamble in horse racing, but i imagine you’ll have a few large losing streaks per year.
You need to dig much deeper analysis wise to understand whether this losing streak is due to fundamental issues or not.
I know GingerTipster prides himself (or at least his posts suggest!!) on being successful within this field, but i am curious to what he thinks is a time frame/quantity of bets before one can begin to accurately guage your "ability". It is thought that one needs 100k hands at No limit hold’em to truely understand your win/loss rate, and more for pot limit omaha.
You need to dig much deeper analysis wise to understand whether this losing streak is due to fundamental issues or not.
I know GingerTipster prides himself (or at least his posts suggest!!) on being successful within this field, but i am curious to what he thinks is a time frame/quantity of bets before one can begin to accurately guage your "ability". It is thought that one needs 100k hands at No limit hold’em to truely understand your win/loss rate, and more for pot limit omaha.
Not sure I know what the question is exactly J17? Could you put it in to the language of horse racing please?
Value Is EverythingNot sure I know what the question is exactly J17? Could you put it in to the language of horse racing please?
Sure. In the most common poker format, it is a common trend of thought that a player needs to play 100k hands (online) before their true win or loss rate can be determined with good accuracy. I don’t entirely agree with it, but that is a different debate.
It stands to reason that horse race betting will have a similar "principle". There will be a relative threshold of total number of bets before it’s reasonable to assume what a rough win/loss rate is. I am curious to know what that threshold is. How many bets, basically.
Say you’re profitable over 700 bets this year. As a sample size, it is minute. Do you have an idea of how many bets per year you make?
Here’s the
actual
longest losing run for all odds from UK racing Jan 01 2012 to 23 June 2013. Odds are fractional, so if you backed every 3/1 shot your longest losing run would have been 24 despite having on average 1 winner from every 5 bets
Failure to account for this is why 95% of people who bet on anything don’t make money at it imo.
SP Num >>>>> LLR >>>>> Runners >>>>> Winners >>>>> Win S/R
0 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 100
0.04 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 100
0.05 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 100
0.0625 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 100
0.083 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 8 >>>>> 7 >>>>> 87.5
0.1 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 8 >>>>> 8 >>>>> 100
0.111 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 2 >>>>> 66.67
0.125 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 11 >>>>> 9 >>>>> 81.82
0.142 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 15 >>>>> 14 >>>>> 93.33
0.153 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 2 >>>>> 66.67
0.166 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 18 >>>>> 12 >>>>> 66.67
0.181 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 13 >>>>> 12 >>>>> 92.31
0.2 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 33 >>>>> 31 >>>>> 93.94
0.222 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 20 >>>>> 17 >>>>> 85
0.25 >>>>> 2 >>>>> 42 >>>>> 28 >>>>> 66.67
0.285 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 29 >>>>> 20 >>>>> 68.97
0.3 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 30 >>>>> 26 >>>>> 86.67
0.333 >>>>> 2 >>>>> 43 >>>>> 28 >>>>> 65.12
0.363 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 52 >>>>> 31 >>>>> 59.62
0.4 >>>>> 4 >>>>> 71 >>>>> 44 >>>>> 61.97
0.444 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 86 >>>>> 53 >>>>> 61.63
0.47 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 100
0.5 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 112 >>>>> 74 >>>>> 66.07
0.533 >>>>> 3 >>>>> 41 >>>>> 29 >>>>> 70.73
0.571 >>>>> 6 >>>>> 137 >>>>> 79 >>>>> 57.66
0.615 >>>>> 5 >>>>> 122 >>>>> 70 >>>>> 57.38
0.666 >>>>> 6 >>>>> 194 >>>>> 110 >>>>> 56.7
0.727 >>>>> 6 >>>>> 207 >>>>> 107 >>>>> 51.69
0.8 >>>>> 8 >>>>> 231 >>>>> 112 >>>>> 48.48
0.833 >>>>> 7 >>>>> 175 >>>>> 92 >>>>> 52.57
0.9 >>>>> 10 >>>>> 325 >>>>> 154 >>>>> 47.38
1 >>>>> 9 >>>>> 430 >>>>> 211 >>>>> 49.07
1.1 >>>>> 9 >>>>> 355 >>>>> 164 >>>>> 46.2
1.2 >>>>> 7 >>>>> 204 >>>>> 91 >>>>> 44.61
1.25 >>>>> 11 >>>>> 589 >>>>> 247 >>>>> 41.94
1.375 >>>>> 14 >>>>> 550 >>>>> 225 >>>>> 40.91
1.5 >>>>> 11 >>>>> 728 >>>>> 257 >>>>> 35.3
1.625 >>>>> 17 >>>>> 588 >>>>> 199 >>>>> 33.84
1.75 >>>>> 20 >>>>> 989 >>>>> 347 >>>>> 35.09
1.875 >>>>> 12 >>>>> 789 >>>>> 279 >>>>> 35.36
2 >>>>> 15 >>>>> 1568 >>>>> 447 >>>>> 28.51
2.125 >>>>> 6 >>>>> 92 >>>>> 36 >>>>> 39.13
2.25 >>>>> 16 >>>>> 1786 >>>>> 506 >>>>> 28.33
2.5 >>>>> 22 >>>>> 1953 >>>>> 529 >>>>> 27.09
2.75 >>>>> 30 >>>>> 2306 >>>>> 575 >>>>> 24.933 >>>>> 24 >>>>> 3056 >>>>> 666 >>>>> 21.79
3.33 >>>>> 21 >>>>> 1031 >>>>> 223 >>>>> 21.63
3.5 >>>>> 35 >>>>> 3854 >>>>> 772 >>>>> 20.03
4 >>>>> 32 >>>>> 4247 >>>>> 732 >>>>> 17.24
4.5 >>>>> 34 >>>>> 4472 >>>>> 746 >>>>> 16.68
5 >>>>> 35 >>>>> 4343 >>>>> 677 >>>>> 15.59
5.5 >>>>> 71 >>>>> 2676 >>>>> 368 >>>>> 13.75
6 >>>>> 46 >>>>> 4568 >>>>> 531 >>>>> 11.62
6.5 >>>>> 54 >>>>> 2271 >>>>> 280 >>>>> 12.33
7 >>>>> 54 >>>>> 4764 >>>>> 528 >>>>> 11.08
7.5 >>>>> 37 >>>>> 1802 >>>>> 190 >>>>> 10.54
8 >>>>> 65 >>>>> 6710 >>>>> 589 >>>>> 8.78
8.5 >>>>> 47 >>>>> 874 >>>>> 83 >>>>> 9.5
9 >>>>> 63 >>>>> 3762 >>>>> 310 >>>>> 8.24
10 >>>>> 67 >>>>> 5477 >>>>> 405 >>>>> 7.39
11 >>>>> 97 >>>>> 2283 >>>>> 165 >>>>> 7.23
12 >>>>> 97 >>>>> 6444 >>>>> 402 >>>>> 6.24
14 >>>>> 81 >>>>> 6328 >>>>> 320 >>>>> 5.06
16 >>>>> 115 >>>>> 7825 >>>>> 348 >>>>> 4.45
18 >>>>> 143 >>>>> 1132 >>>>> 43 >>>>> 3.8
20 >>>>> 226 >>>>> 7212 >>>>> 222 >>>>> 3.08
22 >>>>> 130 >>>>> 1441 >>>>> 48 >>>>> 3.33
25 >>>>> 180 >>>>> 6587 >>>>> 184 >>>>> 2.79
28 >>>>> 123 >>>>> 1786 >>>>> 50 >>>>> 2.8
33 >>>>> 300 >>>>> 6595 >>>>> 101 >>>>> 1.53
40 >>>>> 253 >>>>> 3145 >>>>> 40 >>>>> 1.27
50 >>>>> 847 >>>>> 4140 >>>>> 35 >>>>> 0.85
66 >>>>> 534 >>>>> 3395 >>>>> 18 >>>>> 0.53
80 >>>>> 704 >>>>> 704 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 0
100 >>>>> 593 >>>>> 3162 >>>>> 10 >>>>> 0.32
125 >>>>> 84 >>>>> 154 >>>>> 2 >>>>> 1.3
150 >>>>> 536 >>>>> 536 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 0
200 >>>>> 556 >>>>> 563 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 0.18
250 >>>>> 126 >>>>> 126 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 0
300 >>>>> 9 >>>>> 9 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 0
400 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 0
500 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 1 >>>>> 0 >>>>> 0If you can’t find a winner in 10 bets, should you be betting? Especially if you’re backing at the top of the market – even money to 4/1 shall we say.
At what point do you admit that you’re not much good at picking winners?
If you can’t find a winner in 10 bets, should you be betting? Especially if you’re backing at the top of the market – even money to 4/1 shall we say.
At what point do you admit that you’re not much good at picking winners?
I think this just shows why you are unable to win and blame it on everything else. A total misunderstanding of betting concepts.
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