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For everyone else look away now.
Woolfie,
Look at the first figure on each line of my quote below.
When betting to level stakes a punter needs a20%
strike rate @
4/1
to break even, therefore
4/1 = 20%
.
ie Out of 100 ONE Point 4/1 bets, if a punter wins 20 and loses 80… for each win he/she makes 4 points winnings + the 1 point stake = 5 points returned. 20 x 5 = 100. So with 20 wins @ 4/1 the punter has staked 100 points and returned 100 points, breaking even. Therefore 4/1 is said to equal 20%.Now look at the second figure on each line.
A 10% SR is needed @ 9/1 to break even, therefore 9/1 = 10%.
Third figure, 5/1 = 16.7%
Fourth figure, 7/2 = 22.2%
Fifth, 6/4 = 40%
11/1 = 8.3%, 5/4 = 44.4%, 3/1 = 25% etc etc.4/1 + 9/1 + 5/1 + 7/2 + 6/4 + 11/1 + 5/4 + 3/1 + 6/1 + 9/4 + 13/1 + 100/30 + 11/4 = 288.6 = average 22.2 = average price taken 7/2
ie
20
+ 10 + 16.7 + 22.2 + 40 + 8.3 + 44.4 + 25 + 14.3 + 30.8 + 7.1 + 23.1 + 26.7 = 288.6 = average price taken 7/2
So when adding all the 13 numbers (percentages) up on the bottom line it adds up to a total of 288.6.
To find the AVERAGE PRICE divide the total 288.6 by the number of bets 13 = 22.2%.22.2% = 7/2 because a 22.2 (recurring)% strike rate @ 7/2 is needed to break even.
Value Is EverythingGinger , 7/2 is not the average of 1/1 to 13/1. it’s 7.07/1
My shortest priced winner ever taken is 4/5.
My biggest priced winner ever is 119/1.Is my average priced winner 59/1?
I wish!You can not work average prices out that way.
Value Is EverythingFor everyone else look away now.
Woolfie,
Look at the first figure on each line of my quote below.
When betting to level stakes a punter needs a20%
strike rate @
4/1
to break even, therefore
4/1 = 20%
.
ie Out of 100 ONE Point 4/1 bets, if a punter wins 20 and loses 80… for each win he/she makes 4 points winnings + the 1 point stake = 5 points returned. 20 x 5 = 100. So with 20 wins @ 4/1 the punter has staked 100 points and returned 100 points, breaking even. Therefore 4/1 is said to equal 20%.Now look at the second figure on each line.
A 10% SR is needed @ 9/1 to break even, therefore 9/1 = 10%.
Third figure, 5/1 = 16.7%
Fourth figure, 7/2 = 22.2%
Fifth, 6/4 = 40%
11/1 = 8.3%, 5/4 = 44.4%, 3/1 = 25% etc etc.4/1 + 9/1 + 5/1 + 7/2 + 6/4 + 11/1 + 5/4 + 3/1 + 6/1 + 9/4 + 13/1 + 100/30 + 11/4 = 288.6 = average 22.2 = average price taken 7/2
ie
20
+ 10 + 16.7 + 22.2 + 40 + 8.3 + 44.4 + 25 + 14.3 + 30.8 + 7.1 + 23.1 + 26.7 = 288.6 = average price taken 7/2
So when adding all the 13 numbers (percentages) up on the bottom line it adds up to a total of 288.6.
To find the AVERAGE PRICE divide the total 288.6 by the number of bets 13 = 22.2%.22.2% = 7/2 because a 22.2 (recurring)% strike rate @ 7/2 is needed to break even.
It has no relevance to my betting, like I said, It’s unlikely that I would to bet above 6/1 in the method I was using at the time. I was betting between even money and 6/1 at the top of the market.
It is exactly because you do not understand this kind of thing Woolfie (probabilities etc) that you (wrongly) believe the game is bent.
You often say too many outsiders win races these days. Yet the fact is the number of outsiders that win races is the number of outsiders you can
expect
to win races.
If you’d only learn the maths you’d see the truth Woolfie!
Value Is EverythingI had five winners at R Ascot, including York Glory.
A lot of it is about confidence, or rather keeping hold of one’s confidence when things go wrong. That is the test of a punter. The minute you your confidence goes your analysis skills degrade. You get a little bit sloppier, and then make more mistakes, which degrades your judgement a little more, and so on.
There are periods when losing runs are BOUND to occur. In my opinion it isn’t worth having a bet from the start of the Flat till Chester May meeting. And I increasingly question the point of betting in large parts of the Jumps high-season, when horses are being laid out quite shamelessly for Cheltenham. It seems that every year I have a losing run in the two to three weeks before the Hennessy, then it starts picking up again.
It is exactly because you do not understand this kind of thing Woolfie (probabilities etc) that you (wrongly) believe the game is bent.
You often say too many outsiders win races these days. Yet the fact is the number of outsiders that win races is the number of outsiders you can
expect
to win races.
If you’d only learn the maths you’d see the truth Woolfie!
So you seem unable to come up with the average in a sequence from 1/1 to 6/1, hiding this failing by obfuscation. It seems that you are ill equipped to deliver lectures to anyone.
For everyone else look away now.
22.2% = 7/2 because a 22.2 (recurring)% strike rate @ 7/2 is needed to break even.
Good Morning Ginger
How could I resist a peek, decimal points get my rocks off too, though that’s our little secret
So I feel I really must correct this glaring error in your otherwise exemplary mathematical treatise:
288.6/13 = 22.2 (non-recurring)
Left uncorrected I feel it might confuse the Woolf cub, who otherwise, thanks to your tutelage, is showing some signs of understanding sum-and-divide
Carry on the good work banging your head against a granite cliff while pissing into an Okie tornado
This is all a wind-up Woolf boy…surely
At the heart of this debate, ignoring the mathematical asides is the amount of convincing people need to conclude that they are rubbish at picking winners.
Current losing runs stands at 19
Worst since I started back in May. Back to the cards…
Mike
For everyone else look away now.
22.2% = 7/2 because a 22.2 (recurring)% strike rate @ 7/2 is needed to break even.
Good Morning Ginger
How could I resist a peek, decimal points get my rocks off too, though that’s our little secret
So I feel I really must correct this glaring error in your otherwise exemplary mathematical treatise:
288.6/13 = 22.2 (non-recurring)
Left uncorrected I feel it might confuse the Woolf cub, who otherwise, thanks to your tutelage, is showing some signs of understanding sum-and-divide
Carry on the good work banging your head against a granite cliff while pissing into an Okie tornado
This is all a wind-up Woolf boy…surely
My brick wall is covered in blood Drone.
Sadly, I see no evidence of Woolfie understanding "sum and divide".
Our own Citizen Smith is not for turning, still wanting "freedom for Tooting"!Just to correct you Drone…
It is true that 288.6 ‘/, 13 = 22.2 (non-recurring), but my example was deliberately simple (I thought) to understand by only working out the 13 numbers quoted to 1 decimal point.However, 7/2 does equal "22.2 (recurring)%", as any calculator will tell you.
7/2 =
7 + 2 = 9
2 ‘/, 9 = 0.2222222…Stangely, I only mentioned "recurring" because I thought if I’d said 7/2 = 22.2 then some other clever-dick would’ve corrected me Drone. ie Winning 22.2% of bets @ 7/2 does
not
break even, only getting back 99.9 of a 100 bank.
Power to the people!
Value Is EverythingCurrent losing runs stands at 19
Worst since I started back in May. Back to the cards…
Mike
My current form isn’t much better Mike.
The game’s bent.
Value Is EverythingI don’t back now as I’m not much good at it but I never hit as many losers as you guys. Try to find the triers is my advice.
The real truth about it all is that the racing calendar has indigestible binges of good racing followed by days and days of rubbish.
Look at today. Far too much to get to grips with but plenty of value around if you can drive yourself out of bed at 5am to get on the form. Then Saturday is over and we’re back to low grade rubbish. Exactly what the bookies want, of course, but.The real truth about it all is that the racing calendar has indigestible binges of good racing followed by days and days of rubbish.
Look at today. Far too much to get to grips with but plenty of value around if you can drive yourself out of bed at 5am to get on the form. Then Saturday is over and we’re back to low grade rubbish. Exactly what the bookies want, of course, but.What the bookies want is mug punters, they don’t want clever bastards, reading form and coming up with winners. AND connections don’t want clever bastards backing their horses what have not done as well as what they could do.
So clever bastards. sling your hook.
Just to correct you Drone…
It is true that 288.6 ‘/, 13 = 22.2 (non-recurring), but my example was deliberately simple (I thought) to understand by only working out the 13 numbers quoted to 1 decimal point.However, 7/2 does equal "22.2 (recurring)%", as any calculator will tell you.
7/2 =
7 + 2 = 9
2 ‘/, 9 = 0.2222222…Stangely, I only mentioned "recurring" because I thought if I’d said 7/2 = 22.2 then some other clever-dick would’ve corrected me Drone. ie Winning 22.2% of bets @ 7/2 does
not
break even, only getting back 99.9 of a 100 bank.
Precisely my point Gingerreccurrerr: 22.2 or 22.22222… which is it?
I see Mr Woolf has resorted to expletives and near-
ad hominems
which are the last resort of the defeated; so the percentage call. recurring or not, is job well done G et al
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