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Where’s my going stick?
any weather 5 day forecast experts in the Newbury area needed?
Ground dependent on who runs here but the likelihood at present is for it being on the softer side. This would rule out Toronado and I would imagine it would be a negative for the O’Brien horse Verrazano who may also miss out if the going is soft. Olympic Glory heads the market due to his QE11 win and on form that should be enough to win here but at 6/4 it might be worth taking a punt on Top Notch Tonto 14/1 who was behind OG that day and has the benefit of a run already under his belt this term albeit behind another two in the line up Tullius and Montiridge. I got the impression they are expecting a bolder show in this a group 1 race having improved with races last term, it might be worth playing each way now with the likely drop outs giving you 3 places now and the possibility of a small final field. Soft Falling Rain is a horse I cant get right but his only run on soft was 11/12 in that QE11. The German raider Chopen probably wants further although his stamina could come into play in a slog. famous last words Sruthan and Empire Storm are making up the numbers.All that said I hope we have the mother of all heat waves and my boy Toronado runs.
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Just googled weather forecast for the area and it’s looking good.
Sunny day wed. and sunny intervals thursday and friday. Only rain being maybe a few light showers tomorrow. These people have been known to get things wrong, mind.
That’s brighter news, thanks Mr .P.
If that’s the case ignore everything I wrote….
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Olympic Glory is even shorter now but having checked the current going is good to soft(good in places) and if the weather forecast is right and the ground continues to dry out I wouldn’t want him at current price but that said what do you take him on with? Certainly not TNT if it’s not soft.
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The going is now currently stated good (good to soft in places) I’m surprised Toronado has not entered the equation here with the likelihood of good weather continuing. He was left out of the QE11 after his problem at York in the international with Hannon saying he needed more time and yet still didn’t run at the Breeders Cup despite everything being in his favour and not OG’s. He is apparently entered up here for the Lockinge and I’m surprised Hannon has confirmed OG as a confirmed runner.
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Apart from one or two that have failed to make the track, AOB has a stunning record with transcontinental imports. Haradasun, So You Think and Starspangledbanner all picked up at least one G1.
Surely this is one of the best chances Verrazano will get this season. He was a clear G1 performer in the US, but not exactly a stand-out dominant force like some of those named. The ground and his fitness are question marks, but surely the team know the importance of taking this opportunity. I’m surprised that he is an unlikely runner. Could someone link in an article about this?
Olympic Glory is solid enough, but doesn’t have the race-settling pace of most top-notch milers. I’d love to take him on and will take a chance on Verrazano if he does line up.
With the ground drying out I’d rather side with him than OG who looked to badly need the run 1st time out last season although that was earlier in the season, taking forever to see off Moohaajim.
Quote from the Reading Chronicle with link below.
Aidan O’Brien has only won the race once, with Hawk Wing in 2003, and he could give US import Verrazano a first start for Ballydoyle in the Group One contest.
“He’s a good looking horse and I’d like to run him at Newbury because we are still learning about him,” said the County Tipperary trainer. “However, we won’t run if the ground is worse than good”.
http://www.readingchronicle.co.uk/sport/horseracing/articles/2014/05/12/100197-olympic-glory-ready-to-roll-for-jlt-lockinge-stakes-at-newbury-racecourse/
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I wonder about the value of this race. Six-year-old
Tullius
is more a GIII-horse than a top-miler able to win GI races…
Olympic Glory
did it quite comfortably. The best won, no doubt about that.
Nice effort from the third as well. Maybe next time Joseph will try to ride him more in front?Verrazano finished 3rd
After they "un-retired" him I didn’t think he’d hit the board again.For me this was a weak renewal.
For Olympic Glory to be Champion Miler last term just shows how weak the division had become with the defections of Dawn Approach and Toronada earlier in the season.
He only won one G1 in 2013. He did not exactly win by miles from some inferior opponents today.
I would not be surprised if that was the 2014 zenith for OG.
I look forward to seeing Toronado later this season or maybe s 3 yo miler will come to the fore.
I think you under-estimate Olympic Glory AOTF.
Timeform rated Toronado 133, Dawn Approach 132 and Olympic Glory also on 132.
OG might have only won one G1 in 2013, being an easy winner of the QEII… But was also only a short head 2nd to one of the best mares we’ve seen – Moonlight Cloud. Even if Dawn Approach was below form in 5th that day… There was 1 3/4 lengths back to French Derby winner Intello and neck to 4th placed Queen Anne and International winner Declaration Of War. The performance put up by Olympic Glory that day to be runner-up was good enough to win most Group 1 races at a mile.
Toronado may have the best turn of foot, but there’s nothing much between the two stable mates on form. Indeed, he too "only won one Group 1" (Sussex) and needs to come back from the York disappointment.
Value Is EverythingThe problem with the French form is that both intello and declaration of war were running at shorter distances than they were best at and dawn approach had tailed off by then. Og disappointed a few times but on his day was very good. Verrazano ran a blinder for his first run on grass which makes the Queen Anne looking like a hot race at royal ascot. Tornado must have had training problems to have run so few times so it hard to judge how he will run if he turns up at all.. We won’t find out how good last years 3 yos are till they take on this seasons best later on in the season. The 2000 guineas could turn out to have been a very good one in time so let’s wait and see.
I think you under-estimate Olympic Glory AOTF.
Timeform rated Toronado 133, Dawn Approach 132 and Olympic Glory also on 132.
OG might have only won one G1 in 2013, being an easy winner of the QEII… But was also only a short head 2nd to one of the best mares we’ve seen – Moonlight Cloud. Even if Dawn Approach was below form in 5th that day… There was 1 3/4 lengths back to French Derby winner Intello and neck to 4th placed Queen Anne and International winner Declaration Of War. The performance put up by Olympic Glory that day to be runner-up was good enough to win most Group 1 races at a mile.
Toronado may have the best turn of foot, but there’s nothing much between the two stable mates on form. Indeed, he too "only won one Group 1" (Sussex) and needs to come back from the York disappointment.
Fair points Ginger, we will see how the season pans out. I just get the impression that OG is mercurial and may struggle to put together a run of wins. But then again the same could be said for Toronado!
I think the pair are just short of absolute top class and are benefiting from a weakish mile division. Not sure how either of them achieved ratings of 133 and 132!
Dawn Approach was definitely a better horse than OG (and arguably Toronado), but he blew up in the Derby and was never the same again.
The question is whether there is anything else that can come to the fore in the mile division? I have my doubts about NOT and Kingman in a somewhat messy guineas.
Are there other candidates?
I think you under-estimate Olympic Glory AOTF.
Timeform rated Toronado 133, Dawn Approach 132 and Olympic Glory also on 132.
OG might have only won one G1 in 2013, being an easy winner of the QEII… But was also only a short head 2nd to one of the best mares we’ve seen – Moonlight Cloud. Even if Dawn Approach was below form in 5th that day… There was 1 3/4 lengths back to French Derby winner Intello and neck to 4th placed Queen Anne and International winner Declaration Of War. The performance put up by Olympic Glory that day to be runner-up was good enough to win most Group 1 races at a mile.
Toronado may have the best turn of foot, but there’s nothing much between the two stable mates on form. Indeed, he too "only won one Group 1" (Sussex) and needs to come back from the York disappointment.
Fair points Ginger, we will see how the season pans out. I just get the impression that OG is mercurial and may struggle to put together a run of wins. But then again the same could be said for Toronado!
I think the pair are just short of absolute top class and are benefiting from a weakish mile division. Not sure how either of them achieved ratings of 133 and 132!
Dawn Approach was definitely a better horse than OG (and arguably Toronado), but he blew up in the Derby and was never the same again.
The question is whether there is anything else that can come to the fore in the mile division? I have my doubts about NOT and Kingman in a somewhat messy guineas.
Are there other candidates?
I do agree with you that, the winner aside, this was a weak renewal of the race but Dawn Approach definitely a better horse than Olympic Glory? I’ll beg to differ and I think the facts do too. Out of the three times they met, OG got the better of DA twice. And, even in the Coventry Stakes where OG finished less than a length behind DA, I remember being convinced that OG would reverse the form next time out considering that was only OG’s second run of his career compared to DA’s 4th. It took over a year for them to meet again but that initial impression was confirmed right. The only downside to OG is that he can be a tad inconsistent, but to be honest, DA and Toronado haven’t proved immune to howlers either. And, as someone hinted to above, I think OG’s near miss against Moonlight Cloud in the Jacques Le Marois was by far the best performance put up by a UK/Irish miler last season.
I also disagree about the quality of this year’s Guineas. I think it’s one of the best in years, with three top class runners occupying the first three places. Miles better than last year’s for sure. Glory Awaits and Van Der Neer who??
You make very valid points.
I guess we just need to wait and see whether a consistent miler appears this season.
Sorry if I gave the impression I thought the guineas was weak. I agree it was a very strong field.
I simply meant the way the race was run, with the field splitting gave the impression of a messy result.
OG won easily enough there and any concerns from me over the ground were proved well and truly wrong however I still think Toronado would have beat the opposition up yesterday just as well but any ante post bets in races where the two are entered to be running should be carefully considered.
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IMO yesterday’s Lockinge was a weak renewal. Olympic Glory was in a different league. He goes well fresh and blinkers have sharpened him up. Only doubt was the ground, which he got away with but was also of no help to the likes of Tullius and Top Notch Tonto.
Of those behind, Tullius is just a G2 6 year old horse who started his season in the Lincoln Handicap. Top Notch Tonto did too much but in any event needs soft and is held by the winner on past meetings. The O’Brien horse was sweaty in the paddock but showed promise first time on turf transferred from US dirt and many of Aiden’s seemed to need a race this season. Montiridge was given a puzzling ride similar to that of Toormore in the Guineas, setting a fast pace and initially racing alone. He could have been said to have acted as pacemaker for his winning stablemate and was a spent force after 6f. If you backed him you had no chance. Hughes was strong on the fav in his RP column and said Montiridge could win a G1 but it wouldn’t be this one! Perhaps that was a clue.
The older milers look weak and I wouldn’t go overboard about Olympic Glory who had run of the race on the day. Toronado (same ownership) is talented but another hit or miss type who seems to have breathing issues. Likely they will be kept apart for a while.
Perhaps a younger pretender will rule the roost? I thought the Guineas was strong and it is too early to write off unplaced horses like Toormore. Ascot will reveal more.There is talk of stepping up Olympic Glory (and Tullius) in trip.
After they "un-retired" him I didn’t think he’d hit the board again.
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