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I like Laurens 5-1 in this. Looks an each way bet to nothing the way the trainer is talking.
I like I can fly at the prices
Race looks a complete minefield but I can fly at 20/1 e/w will be my play
A repeat of her run behind roaring lion at ascot should see her bang there
Its a weak race for a Lockhinge (story of the season so far it seems!), so the chances of Beat The Bank look very solid to me. 4 times a Group 2 winner over a mile, but always a bit short of Group 1 standard, except in this field maybe this can be the day. Reminds me a little bit of Lightning Spear, a very solid Group 2 horse, who could(and did) pinch a Group 1 if the race pans out well. EW think we should get 4 places in the morning at 7/1 looks a nice bet I think, poor in this last year, but he wasn’t ready and this time Andrew Balding has him prepped nicely having won the Sandown Mile in April.
Beat The Bank 7/1
I think there’s worse E/W shouts than Mythical Magic at 16/1. He looked quite
progressive when easily beating Century Dream in Meydan last time out. That
was off level weights, and that was with CD rated 10lbs higher. MM has been
raised 9lbs, but I think that’s fair enough, and I reckon he could still be
well in. Le Brivedo looks decent, but at the odds I think MM is a solid e/w
with a reasonable chance of getting his head in front.Added Without Parole 8/1 as the ground is looking faster than I thought it would be and this would be his first run back at 8F on GF since his SJP win.
In this race my mind focused on unexposed sorts. ie Laurens has the best and Lord Glitters probably second best form, but their form seems established. Beat The Bank, I Can Fly and Accidental Agent‘s form all seem at an established level too. Latter will probably need it anyway – prep for another crack at the Queen Anne. Romanised and Billesdon Brook seem incapable of their past best. Romanised a bit better last time but personally suspect he’s a bad traveller. Ostilio progressive last season but ran poorly reappearance and likes his own way in front… His presence may go against Laurens. The filly’s trainer is yet to hit full swing too.
Le Brivido was one that went in to my notebook for better/winning a Group 1 after the Jersey, but fragile since. It wouldn’t surprise if his new trainer fulfil the horse’s potential. Having said that – he’s unusually weak in the market for an AOB. My 5.4/1 doesn’t look value anymore tbh (unless it shortens again). Very difficult to know his real chance and my bet thankfully only a saver. How the market goes tells a lot with this type of horse.
Without Parole came to the fore at this time last season and ran an encouraging race in Dubai; might yet fulfil his potential. Headgear from this stable far from a negative. Considering Sharja Bridge‘s inexperience, wasn’t far behind the established Beat The Bank at Sandown. SB could still improve a bit more – BTB won’t. Mythical Magic isn’t yet of the standard of some but is seemingly progressing fast. Obviously a question mark on whether he can reproduce (let alone improve on) Godolphin Meydan form, is a big enough price to take that chance. Mustashry was weak in the market at Newmarket and giving weight all round was fairly close to Zabeel Prince (who I think is Group 1 material). Mustashry progressed well last year and may do the same this.
I’ve backed Without Parole @ 12/1, Mustashry 12/1, Sharja Bridge 16/1 and Mythical Magic 20/1 (all “main bets) with a saver on Le Brivido 5.4/1.
Value Is EverythingWell played Ginge. Winner won fair and square.
Can’t help but think Le Brivido was given a bad ride by Ryan Moore. I’m not one to complain about jockeys but he didn’t really give the horse a chance. He wouldn’t have won but he’d have been a clear second. Although he was checked in running and did sweat up beforehand. Could see him winning the Queen Anne still.
Brivido is just a crappy horse, even the (non)-master can’t change a thing about this.
I will never understand what people see in this horse
Thanks everyone.
As far as Brivido is concerned:
Brivido’s asset when racing at a mile is speed; won a 7f Jersey on fast ground… Barely stays a mile and previouly his only race at a mile was a short head second to Brametot in the 2017 French Guineas – when likewise dropped out the back for a late run. Also given a similar ride last time out/on reappearance. Brivido was always going to be raced to preserve stamina; always going to be out the back early and as such a hostage to fortune/pace. Ostilio is an out and out front runner and with Laurens also in the field as well as a few other pace chasers suited by a truly run race… His position could easily have been advantageous in other circumstances, they played the percentages and didn’t pay off. ie Beforehand it was probable there’d be at least a good pace if not a strong one. Maybe wasn’t as strong as expected, but I don’t think it was slow either. The 3rd Accidental Agent came from a similar position, just got more breaks than Brivido. Provided he stays a truly run mile at a stiff course/Ascot, should do better there if the run of the race goes more his way.Value Is Everything
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