Lingfield 4.30

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Looks like a tough enough race but everything is set up for:

Mafeking 4pts ew @ 10/1 Bet365

I’m fairly confident of a good result here. I’m expecting the horse to place without question. There are some in here with questions over the trip and some coming back from 2 or three month breaks and others who Mafeking holds on form. While it is a relatively competitive contest Mafeking has everything going for him. He’s won comfortably over sourse and distance recently, like to be prominent and so benefits from stall 1, when he was beaten over CD last time it was by the enigmatic Final Drive whos gone over to Meydan and almost picked up a big handicap over there failing by half a length. Lowther is another horse that is in a rich vein of form and ran the improved Bravo Echo to a length in a Listed race last time. That form, though being beaten, stands very strong for Mafeking. He held Audemar that day comfortably though that horse tries head gear and gets 2lbs so should be tougher.

On a line through Bravo Echo it could be argued that Hazzard Country will beat Mafeking (HC got closer to BE than Lowther and Lowther beat Mafeking comfortably), though I think Bravo Echo stepped up again in the Listed race at Kempton so the gap isn’t what it might appear. Mafeking doesn’t need to lead and can happily sit behind the leader so if Alhaban wants to lead thats not an issue. I like Alhaban and would consideer backing him but for the question of his stamina. Mafeking is better value in this case and if Mafeking was around the 5/1 mark I’d certainly be having a go at Alhaban but at much smaller stakes.

EDIT:
I seem to have forgotten to mention that Mafeking raced from stall 13 of 13 in his last race over 10f at Lingfield. He raced at least 3 wide the entire journey and was only a length and a half off the winner at the end. He was infact around 7 horse widths wide turning into the straight.

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