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Big Bucks the reply was to Kopwas who was kindly giving updates on the going not you.
As it happens I won’t be backing anything as my horse won’t be running. I will have a close look at Viznau.
I wouldnt be as sure of myself on the flat as i am over jumps……but i reckon Penitents a shoe-in looking at it.
Il probable back Mias Boy ew.
Woe!Woe and thrice woe!! As some you know I have backed an animal of Fahey’s and he has left FIVE in!! Yes FIVE!! That means he is not confident about any of them to me!! And mine is drawn nineteen!! Maybe thats not very good and my 25/1 ante post is not looking good at this moment but hey I am an optimist and if you are not in you cant win!!
Looking at his form I dont see all the fuss about Pentient.
At the prices I like MoK 10/1, Huzzah 14/1, Smoakey Oakey 25/1
Not sure I’ll bet though
Hi Big Bucks
I was a bit abrupt having just read my response – wasn’t meant. Interested to know what you think might win as the going looks like it’s to be softish? I was eyeing up Tartan Gigha as it has been running in Dubai. The ground has ruled it out.
I can’t understand how anyone can knock Penitent really – only had 5 starts, won 2 and came 2nd in 3 – not bad for a 3 year old who isn’t bred to come into his own (typically for one of Cheveley Park’s) until 4 or 5. His 2nd to the useful Russian Spirit, coming a long way clear of the 3rd, and 2nd to the 103 rated Khor Dubai, is good form. Has an unexposed profile which reads well in the context of a Lincoln looking at recent winners, and deserves to be favourite. I’m not enamoured or attracted by any of the other runners at all to be honest.
A good e/w bet at 25s must be Smokey Oakey – will love the "soft" in the going description.
Hi Fryern, I was being abrupt myself so don’t worry!! Just like to cut to the chase sometimes
I’m on Mull Of Killough e/w at 33/1 and 20/1 – I usually do a major preview of the race but not on this forum. Penitent’s off 98 without even having won a race properly (bar his maiden) so his price certainly doesn’t reflect his chance, whatever he does.
Mull has serious form (e.g. firebet) and hated the ground despite winning a competitive race lto and has apparently been plotted for this, whereas most of the runners are just here for a day out.
Hi Big Bucks,
Penitent’s agree that is a crazy price we don’t know the going yet. I wouldn’t rule out Advanced (won some good races) but your sitting pretty on the odds you have on Mull. Drawn 10 do you have any idea if high is better than low. 10 is bang in the middle so your looking good.
This is a very interesting draw and, despite having an antepost bet on Collateral Damage at 25s, I think Richard Fahey has benefited superbly from the draw.
Harrison George stood out for me when I looked back through the form and particularly when he was stepped up in trip for the first time. He stayed on gamely in the final furlong over 7f at Ayr from Prime Exhibit who wasn’t going to get any closer that day. If anything Harrison George was stretching away further. Prime Exhibit is an interesting one for me…..I personally would’ve fancied Tom Dascombe’s Prince of Dance if he ran in this and Prime Exhibit was a game 2nd to the Dascombe horse at Salisbury last year ahead of some very decent types.
Mister Hardy (21) and Albaqaa (21) both need pace to run into/to track and with Harrison George drawn 17 they will get that.
The only other one that stands out for me is Tiger Reigns who looks held on some of last years form.
Aside from antepost liabilities i’ll be having a decent bet on Harrison George and Albaqaa with a smaller bet on Mister Hardy who thrived this time last year (maybe he’s a Spring horse?!)
1 370212-2 Mia’s Boy 12
8f+ form in fields under 10: 11113162
8f+ form in fields larger than 10: 655046337
admittedly some were crackers, but held by huzzah (6lbs better off) on the hunt cup run and top-weight here.2 381448-4 Advanced 26
no 8f form
3 187801-4 Extraterrestrial 12 D3
2nd in spring mile off 92, won 8f soft off 95. well beaten in competitive summer class 2s, and 7lbs claimer suggests major weight concerns. Place chance.
4 1576-41- Doctor Crane (USA) 305 C1
rated higher than Expresso but without the same va va vroom, tries to make all, ground unknown, could be wrong side, win not impressive.
5 21212- Penitent 158 D1
Maiden win: 2nd won a cl5 handicap off 74; 3rd yet to win a race
Kempton off 84 – winner has won a 7k class 3; 3rd has won a 10k class 3 off 82
Kempton off 86 – deadheater stoic beaten all 3 runs since now rated 97
Southwell off 93 – winner beaten of 96 nto; 3rd was the old boy Collat Damage. Travelled well and found not a lot, worrying.
Runs here off 98.6 -400108- Dubai’s Touch 229 D3
soundly thrashed in class 2s aplenty
7 605405-1 Vitznau (IRE) 12
3 from 27 on turf. 8/9f form = 0465051. Not consistent is being kind.
8 8576705- Smokey Oakey (IRE) 141
no recent form
9 1111311- Collateral Damage (IRE)
age / mark for a class 2
10 112381- Mull Of Killough (IRE) 181 D1
close 2nd to firebet now rated 108; slotted Light From Mars on unfavourable ground and LFM won a good race nto.
Yes Tiger Reigns beat him a few runs ago but that one was running up a sequence and for now MOK looks the more progressive, vibes and trainer comments back this up.11 574-1460 Reve De Nuit (USA) 39 D2
thrashed last 3
12 -53423-3 Albaqaa 12
soft finisher? Needs further? win rate poor 3/20
13 9253615- Harrison George (IRE) 166 C1
8f form says it all
14 -994687- Lang Shining (IRE) 187 D2
not shone for ages
15 43613690 Full Toss 5
no
16 5879537- Ishetoo 159
no
17 1421114- Tiger Reigns 187 D3
respected but vibes not there
18 9240079- Huzzah (IRE) 164 D1
hunt cup run was a total screamer. Poor backend form though suspect hunt cup plan again. Drawn wrong side? Place chance
19 1150-507 Kaolak (USA) 8 D
3
no20 0060640- Mister Hardy 138 C1
no
21 -25273-1 Viva Vettori 39 D2
debut on soft but needs sound surface? Confront form yes but lacks consistency, winning prep so market mover?
22 4-4132-6 Prime Exhibit 12
headache horse, danger. Same mark (-3lbs/91) as when 2nd to prince of dance, very solid form, thanks to FFT for this:
Prince Of Dance (1st) went on win a listed event at Newmarket
Prime Exhibit (2nd) finished a close up 6th when hampered in his Lincoln/Spring Mile prep race at Wolves
Secrecy (3rd) won a Newmarket handicap by 5L off 102 then finished a 2L third to Snaafy in Dubai
Marching Time (4th)Ran no race when 12th of 16 in Jebel Ali, but was highly regarded beforehand
Vitnzau (5th) won a Wolverhampton handicap off 93
Signor Peltro (6th) hasnt run since
Salden Licht (7th) finished 3rd at Newbury and a respectable 5th in the November handicap. has won twice over jumps sinceVERDICT
1. Mull Of Killough (10)
2. Prime Exhibit (5)
3. Huzzah (20)
4. ExtraT (3)
5. Penitent (1)abuse and laughter after result known is welcomed
with the draw, early pace high half, better 8f horses low half? either way MOK can choose, adaptable to ground issues from spring mile also. gl.
I’m really not sure on this race, & that’s before thinking about the ground & the draw, but a few opinions for what they are worth.
My idea of the best two treated horses in the race are:
Viva Vettori (although a 6yo still looks progressive, & must have run well above his current mark at Kempton) and
Huzzah (who is hardly unexposed, but seems to find himself well-handicapped based on his form in similar big races).Re Tiger Reigns; People can say his winning run came to an end, handicapper caught up with him, etc….but when he was 4th lto, he had a good inside draw that turn horribly bad. If things panned out differently he would have won that race. Again he’s fairly exposed for a potential Lincoln winner though.
That leaves the seriously unexposed horses, Penitent (can understand why people would want to take him on, but he is very unexposed), and Doctor Crane (who I’m really not sure about, but again could improve).
If it turns into a slog through the mud, it really brings alot of the older more-seasoned handicappers into it.
At the price I couldn’t even look at the favourite although I respect the trainer and think he’s got the best jock on him too. I quite like Prime Exhibit and will have a couple of quid on Doctor Crane too.
As most of you will already know I am on Albaqaa but have decided to also back Doctor Crane cos it could be one of these group horses in hiding and its owned by Gosdens WIFE!! And also Prime Exhibit cos that also could be unexposed but hey I usually back placed horses in the Lincoln not the winner!!
So what happened to Full Toss since he was second to Jukebox Jury? Was he injured or did he just regress? He has won over 10 and 11f, though. May risk a few pence at 50/1. Other than that I like the look of the Elsworth horse [worried about the ground] and Extraterrestrial [will like the ground and has a 7lb claimer].
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